Sonay KartalvsBelinda Bencic prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Who will win Kartal vs Bencic?
Belinda Bencic, the ninth seed, opens her Wuhan Open against Sonay Kartal in the second round on Wednesday. We back Bencic to win the match, most likely in three sets.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 65–68%
- Our pick
- Belinda Bencic win
- Odds at publish
- 1.44
- Set by set
- 4:6, 6:4, 3:6
- Not before (UK)
- 04:00
Kartal vs Bencic at a glance
| Match | Sonay Kartal vs Belinda Bencic |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 14 OCT · 04:00 UK · 11:00 local |
| Court | Court 2 · First match on court |
| Our pick | Belinda Bencic win · 1.44 · bet |
| Our estimate | 65–68% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (4:6, 6:4, 3:6) |
| Main reason | Dimers, Tennis.com and String Tension all give Bencic between 65% and 67%. |
Kartal vs Bencic: recent form
Bencic has won one of her last five; Kartal is 15-7 on hard courts this season
- Lost to Sasnovich A. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Tararudee L. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Navarro E. 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2)
- Won v Keys M. 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 4-3 ret.
- Lost to Bouzkova M. 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4
- Won v Lazaro Garcia A. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Wang X. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Charaeva A. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Kalinina A. 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Kalinskaya A. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(6)
- Lost to Gauff C. 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Stephens S. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Townsend T. 6(5)-7, 7-6(4), 6-4
- Won v Eala A. 6-4, 6-0
- Lost to Gauff C.
- Lost to Boisson L. 6-3
- Lost to Putintseva Y. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Zakharova A. 6-1, 7-6(3)
- Lost to Li A. 6-4, 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Kalinina A.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Charaeva A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Wang X.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lazaro Garcia A.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Bouzkova M.Billie Jean King Cup · 22.09.26 | 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Rybakina E.Indian Wells · 12.03.26 | 6-4, 4-3 ret. |
| Won v | Keys M.Indian Wells · 10.03.26 | 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Navarro E.Indian Wells · 07.03.26 | 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2) |
| Won v | Tararudee L.Indian Wells · 05.03.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Sasnovich A.Dubai · 14.02.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Li A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Zakharova A.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-1, 7-6(3) |
| Lost to | Putintseva Y.US Open · 01.09.26 | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Boisson L.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.26 | 6-3 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.Toronto WTA · 12.08.26 | |
| Won v | Eala A.Toronto WTA · 10.08.26 | 6-4, 6-0 |
| Won v | Townsend T.Toronto WTA · 08.08.26 | 6(5)-7, 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Won v | Stephens S.Toronto WTA · 05.08.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.Wimbledon · 05.07.26 | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Kalinskaya A.Wimbledon · 03.07.26 | 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(6) |
The ninth seed against a player in her third tournament back from injury
- Kartal’s return
- She did not play between Indian Wells in March and the Billie Jean King Cup in September. Since then: Beijing, wins over Lazaro Garcia and Wang Xinyu, loss to Charaeva; Wuhan, a 7:5, 6:3 win over Anhelina Kalinina on 12 October.
- Season and surface
- Bencic is 29-14 this season and 17-8 on hard courts. Kartal is 15-8 and 15-7 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- They have never met. A match in Abu Dhabi in February did not take place: Bencic withdrew through illness.
Three models give Bencic 65–67%
| Stat | Kartal | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 15-8 | 29-14 (better) |
| On hard courts | 15-7 (better) | 17-8 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 (better) | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 13-4 (better) | 26-10 |
| As underdog | 2-4 | 3-4 (better) |
| Stat | Kartal | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 39 |
| Aces per match | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Double faults per match | 1.1 (better) | 3.3 |
| 1st serve in | 65.3% (better) | 64.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.7% | 67.5% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 51.7% (better) | 50.2% |
| Service games held | 71.4% | 74.8% (better) |
| Break points saved | 50.5% | 57.1% (better) |
| Stat | Kartal | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 43.2% | 45.9% (better) |
| Return games won | 34.6% | 39.5% (better) |
| Break points converted | 45.4% | 49.4% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 13 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
First meeting
Who do others back in Kartal vs Bencic?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Bencic, 67.0% | Same side |
| Tennis.com | Bencic projected winner, 67% | Same side |
| String Tension (Elo model) | Bencic, 65.0% | Same side |
Kartal vs Bencic predicted score
Bencic in three sets
Bencic takes the ball early and controls rallies when her timing is on, but after nine days without a match she may need time. Kartal already has a win on these courts. We expect Bencic to win 6:4, 4:6, 6:3; a straight-sets win also wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 4:6, 6:4, 3:6
- Alternative
- 0:2
- 4:6, 4:6
Our Kartal vs Bencic pick: Belinda Bencic win
Bencic to win the match
Dimers, Tennis.com and String Tension all give Bencic between 65% and 67%. She had a first-round bye and nine days off after Beijing. Kartal, ranked 170 after missing March to September with an injury, is playing only her third tournament since her return. Bencic’s recent form is the worry: one win in her last five. We expect her to need three sets; a win in two also wins the bet.
- Our scenario
- 4:6, 6:4, 3:61:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 4:6, 4:60:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Bencic’s fitness before the match, or her price drifting above 1.45.
What could beat our pick?
- Bencic has won one of her last five matches and lost four of her last ten as the favourite.
- Kartal is 15-7 on hard courts this season and has already won a match in Wuhan.
- The price, 1.44, is close to our 1.45 limit.
Bet
We back Bencic to win the match: all three models we checked give her about two chances in three, and Kartal is playing only her third tournament since a long injury break.