Single: Medvedev vs Tsitsipas

Why this betA single on Daniil Medvedev to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai Masters fourth round. He is 9-1 in his last ten matches, wins more return games than Tsitsipas and three of the four forecasts we read back him.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 14 OCT · 11:00 UK

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Daniil Medvedev win1.42Won

Why this pickMedvedev has won nine of his last ten, took the Hangzhou title in September and came through Struff and Svrzina in Shanghai without a medical issue. On hard courts he is 33-10 this season, and his return game is the difference: he wins about a quarter of his return games, Tsitsipas about a fifth. Dimers gives him 65% and the Tennis Abstract forecast 64%. Tsitsipas won their last meeting in Doha 6:3, 6:4 and arrives on a good run, so a three-set win is a real path; it still counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 64–68%

Stats comparison

Stat	Medvedev	Tsitsipas
On hard courts	33-10	23-14
Last 10 matches	9-1	8-2
Service games held	91.0%	89.2%
Return games won	25.0%	20.0%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Medvedev in two sets. Medvedev serves more aces (12.7 a match to 9.8) and saves more break points (77.8% to 57.1%), but his second serve is the weak spot: 49.0% of points won, against 61.3% for Tsitsipas. The return decides it: Medvedev breaks in a quarter of his return games, and we expect him to break Tsitsipas’s second serve once or twice over the match. Dimers gives Medvedev 63% to win the first set, and we expect that set to be tight. Our main line is 7:6, 6:4. A Medvedev win in three sets, if Tsitsipas finds the rhythm he had against Fritz, also wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01Tsitsipas won their last meeting comfortably, 6:3, 6:4 in Doha in February.
02Tsitsipas has won three matches in a row, including a comeback from a set down against Taylor Fritz.
03Medvedev wins only 49.0% of his second-serve points over his last ten matches with stats, a target for an aggressive returner.
04The Beijing disqualification was nine days ago; he has played two calm matches in Shanghai since.

Medvedev’s fortnightHe won the Hangzhou title on 29 September, beating Andrey Rublev 7:5, 6:4 in the final. In Beijing he beat Pablo Carreno Busta, Struff and Cerundolo (7:6(4), 6:3), then was disqualified from the semi-final against Novak Djokovic on 5 October, at 5:7, 3:5, after a ball he hit struck a spectator. In Shanghai he beat Struff 4:6, 6:4, 6:3 on 10 October and Dalibor Svrcina 6:2, 6:3 on 12 October, with no medical time-outs.

Full match analysis