Daniil MedvedevvsStefanos Tsitsipas prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Who will win Medvedev vs Tsitsipas?
Daniil Medvedev, the No. 5 seed, plays Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai Masters fourth round on Wednesday. We back Medvedev to win the match, most likely in two sets with one close set.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
- Our pick
- Daniil Medvedev win
- Odds at publish
- 1.43
- Set by set
- 7:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Medvedev vs Tsitsipas at a glance
| Match | Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Fourth round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 14 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fourth match on court (not before 6:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Daniil Medvedev win · 1.43 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–68% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (7:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches, including the Hangzhou title, and has beaten Jan-Lennard Struff and Dalibor Svrcina in Shanghai without trouble. |
The No. 5 seed against the world No. 43 for a Shanghai quarter-final
- Tsitsipas’s run
- He beat Kimmer Coppejans 6:3, 7:5, Luciano Darderi 6:3, 6:4 and Taylor Fritz 3:6, 7:5, 6:3, the last in 2 hours 13 minutes on 12 October. In Tokyo he came through qualifying and lost to Valentin Vacherot 6:4, 6:7(5), 4:6; at the US Open he lost to Ben Shelton in the fourth round 2:6, 3:6, 4:6.
- Season and surface
- Medvedev is 45-17 this season, 33-10 on hard courts and 44-15 as the favourite. Tsitsipas is 39-22 and 23-14 on hard courts. Both have had two days off since their third-round matches.
- Head to head
- Medvedev leads 10-5. Tsitsipas won the last meeting, in the Doha round of 16 in February 2026, 6:3, 6:4. Medvedev won their 2024 Shanghai round of 16 match 7:6(3), 6:3; Tsitsipas won both their 2022 meetings, at the ATP Finals and in Cincinnati, in three sets.
- Fitness
- We found no injury news for either player on Wednesday morning. Reports of shoulder pain for Medvedev after playing Tsitsipas in Shanghai date from 2024, not from this week.
Medvedev wins 25.0% of his return games, Tsitsipas 20.0%
| Stat | Medvedev | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 45-17 (better) | 39-22 |
| On hard courts | 33-10 (better) | 23-14 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 (better) | 8-2 |
| Stat | Medvedev | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (9-1) | 10 (8-2) |
| Aces per match | 12.7 (better) | 9.8 |
| Double faults per match | 3.1 | 1.6 (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 80.5% (better) | 77.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.0% | 61.3% (better) |
| Service games held | 91.0% (better) | 89.2% |
| Break points saved | 77.8% (better) | 57.1% |
| Stat | Medvedev | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 39.9% (better) | 34.3% |
| Return games won | 25.0% (better) | 20.0% |
| Break points converted | 32.5% | 38.6% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 13 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, up to and including Beijing (Shanghai not yet included). We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
Who do others back in Medvedev vs Tsitsipas?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Medvedev the most likely winner, 65% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Medvedev 64.1% | Same side |
| The Stats Zone | Medvedev to win | Same side |
| Last Word on Sports | Tsitsipas in three sets | Other side |
Medvedev vs Tsitsipas predicted score
Medvedev in two sets
Medvedev serves more aces (12.7 a match to 9.8) and saves more break points (77.8% to 57.1%), but his second serve is the weak spot: 49.0% of points won, against 61.3% for Tsitsipas. The return decides it: Medvedev breaks in a quarter of his return games, and we expect him to break Tsitsipas’s second serve once or twice over the match. Dimers gives Medvedev 63% to win the first set, and we expect that set to be tight. Our main line is 7:6, 6:4. A Medvedev win in three sets, if Tsitsipas finds the rhythm he had against Fritz, also wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 7:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
Our Medvedev vs Tsitsipas pick: Daniil Medvedev win
Medvedev to win the match
Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches, including the Hangzhou title, and has beaten Jan-Lennard Struff and Dalibor Svrcina in Shanghai without trouble. His return is the difference: over his last ten matches with stats he wins 25.0% of return games and 39.9% of return points, against 20.0% and 34.3% for Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas won their last meeting, in Doha in February, and arrives on three straight wins, so we expect one tight set. Medvedev leads their meetings 10-5, and we expect him to close it in two sets.
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about either player’s fitness before the match.
What could beat our pick?
- Tsitsipas won their last meeting comfortably, 6:3, 6:4 in Doha in February.
- Tsitsipas has won three matches in a row, including a comeback from a set down against Taylor Fritz.
- Medvedev wins only 49.0% of his second-serve points over his last ten matches with stats, a target for an aggressive returner.
- The Beijing disqualification was nine days ago; he has played two calm matches in Shanghai since.
Bet
We back Medvedev to win the match: he has won 9 of his last 10 and wins 25.0% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, against Tsitsipas’s 20.0%.