Single · No. 86 · 14 OCTWon
Paul vs Bergs
- 01Tommy Paul vs Zizou BergsTommy Paul win1.44 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.44
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.44 units
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
Published 14 OCT 06:35
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Tommy Paul to beat Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai Masters fourth round. Paul has dropped eight games in two matches here and beat Bergs 6:1, 6:2 this year; all four forecasts we read back him.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 14 OCT · 11:00 UK
Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs
Tommy Paul win1.44Won
Why this pickPaul has lost only eight games in two Shanghai matches and beat Bergs 6:1, 6:2 in their meeting this year. Dimers gives him 65%, the Tennis Abstract forecast 71%, and both previews we read pick him. The danger is real: Bergs has just beaten Carlos Alcaraz 7:5, 7:6, and Paul lost 1:6, 2:6 to Tabilo in Tokyo. We expect Paul to control the baseline rallies and win in straight sets; a three-set win also counts.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
Stats comparison
| Stat | Paul | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| On hard courts | 23-12 | 13-13 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Service games held | 82.4% | 83.1% |
| Return games won | 26.7% | 26.4% |
Our scenario
6:4, 7:5 2:0 in sets
Paul in two sets. Over their last ten matches with stats the serve numbers are close: Bergs holds 83.1% of his service games, Paul 82.4%, and both win about 26% of return games. The gap is Bergs’s second serve, 49.0% of points won against Paul’s 53.2%, and his 4.8 double faults a match. We expect Paul to keep the rallies long and Bergs, after an emotional win over Alcaraz, to give away one break a set: 6:4, 7:5 is our main line. If Bergs keeps his first serve at the level he showed against Alcaraz, Paul can still win in three, and that also wins the bet.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Bergs beat Alcaraz and lost four games to Ignacio Buse: the best form of his career.
- 02Two weeks ago Paul lost 1:6, 2:6 to Alejandro Tabilo in Tokyo as the seventh seed.
- 03On a serving day like 12 October, Bergs can win in two sets.
Paul in ShanghaiAs a seed he had a bye in the first round, then beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6:2, 6:2 on 10 October and the defending champion Valentin Vacherot 6:4, 6:2 on 12 October in 85 minutes, converting 4 of 6 break points.
Full match analysis