Tommy PaulvsZizou Bergs prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Who will win Paul vs Bergs?
Tommy Paul, the No. 15 seed, plays Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai Masters fourth round on Wednesday, two days after Bergs beat Carlos Alcaraz. We back Paul to win the match, most likely in two sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
- Our pick
- Tommy Paul win
- Odds at publish
- 1.45
- Set by set
- 6:4, 7:5
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Paul vs Bergs at a glance
| Match | Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Fourth round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 14 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fifth match on court, after Medvedev v Tsitsipas (not before 6:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Tommy Paul win · 1.45 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–67% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 7:5) |
| Main reason | Paul has played clean tennis in Shanghai: two matches, eight games lost, and the defending champion Valentin Vacherot beaten in 85 minutes. |
The No. 15 seed against the man who beat Carlos Alcaraz on Monday
- Bergs in Shanghai
- He beat Vit Kopriva 6:3, 6:1 and Ignacio Buse 6:0, 6:3, then Carlos Alcaraz 7:5, 7:6(4) on 12 October in 2 hours 3 minutes, the biggest win of his career. The ATP put his first-serve points won in that match at 79%.
- Before Shanghai
- Paul lost his Tokyo opener to Alejandro Tabilo 1:6, 2:6 on 30 September as the seventh seed; match reports mention no fitness problem. At the US Open he beat Alexander Bublik in five sets and lost to Alcaraz in the fourth round in straight sets. Bergs lost to Jiri Lehecka in three sets in Tokyo, went 1-1 in the Davis Cup and reached the US Open third round, where Botic van de Zandschulp beat him in five.
- Season and surface
- Paul is 42-19 this season, 23-12 on hard courts and 39-14 as the favourite. Bergs is 29-24 and 13-13 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- One meeting: Paul won 6:1, 6:2 in the second round at Indian Wells in 2026.
Bergs serves 4.8 double faults a match, Paul 2.1
| Stat | Paul | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 42-19 (better) | 29-24 |
| On hard courts | 23-12 (better) | 13-13 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 (better) | 6-4 |
| Stat | Paul | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (7-3) | 10 (6-4) |
| Aces per match | 7.4 (better) | 7.0 |
| Double faults per match | 2.1 (better) | 4.8 |
| 1st serve points won | 73.9% | 77.5% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 53.2% (better) | 49.0% |
| Service games held | 82.4% | 83.1% (better) |
| Break points saved | 62.1% (better) | 60.3% |
| Stat | Paul | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 38.7% | 40.6% (better) |
| Return games won | 26.7% (better) | 26.4% |
| Break points converted | 52.0% (better) | 46.8% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 13 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, before Shanghai. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
Who do others back in Paul vs Bergs?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Paul the most likely winner, 65.1% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Paul 70.8% | Same side |
| Last Word on Sports | Paul in two sets | Same side |
| Australian preview site | Paul −2.5 games | Same side |
Paul vs Bergs predicted score
Paul in two sets
Over their last ten matches with stats the serve numbers are close: Bergs holds 83.1% of his service games, Paul 82.4%, and both win about 26% of return games. The gap is Bergs’s second serve, 49.0% of points won against Paul’s 53.2%, and his 4.8 double faults a match. We expect Paul to keep the rallies long and Bergs, after an emotional win over Alcaraz, to give away one break a set: 6:4, 7:5 is our main line. If Bergs keeps his first serve at the level he showed against Alcaraz, Paul can still win in three, and that also wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 7:5
- Alternative
- 2:1
Our Paul vs Bergs pick: Tommy Paul win
Paul to win the match
Paul has played clean tennis in Shanghai: two matches, eight games lost, and the defending champion Valentin Vacherot beaten in 85 minutes. Bergs played the match of his life against Carlos Alcaraz, but holding that level twice in a row is hard, and he serves more than twice as many double faults as Paul (4.8 a match against 2.1). Their only meeting, at Indian Wells this year, ended 6:1, 6:2. We expect Paul to win in two sets.
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 7:52:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Paul’s fitness before the match.
What could beat our pick?
- Bergs beat Alcaraz and lost four games to Ignacio Buse: the best form of his career.
- Two weeks ago Paul lost 1:6, 2:6 to Alejandro Tabilo in Tokyo as the seventh seed.
- On a serving day like 12 October, Bergs can win in two sets.
Bet
We back Paul to win the match: he has lost eight games in two Shanghai matches and beat Bergs 6:1, 6:2 at Indian Wells this year, while Bergs serves 4.8 double faults a match.