Single · No. 90 · 14 OCTWon
QPR vs Derby
- 01QPR vs DerbyBoth teams to score1.79 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.79
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.79 units
- Our estimate
- 60–66%
Published 14 OCT 06:35
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 9 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 06:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betBoth teams to score at Loftus Road: QPR have five games without a win, most of them 1:1 or 2:2, and Derby concede in nine of ten without three defenders. A 1-unit single while our both-teams-to-score record builds.
Leg 1 · Football · England · Championship · 14 OCT · 19:45 UK
QPR vs Derby
Both teams to score1.79Won
Why this pickBoth teams scored in seven of QPR's last ten games and in six of Derby's, and between them they kept only three clean sheets in those twenty. QPR have drawn their way through five games without a win, mostly 1:1 and 2:2, while Derby concede in nine of ten and are without Clark, Keshi and Taylor at the back. We expect 2:1 or 1:1. The market is more cautious than our form rule, so it is a 1-unit single.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Both teams to score
- 62–68%
Form · QPR 4 from 15. Derby County 2 from 15.
QPR4 pts
- Drawvs West Ham United1:1
- Drawvs Preston North End2:2
- Drawvs West Bromwich Albion1:1
- Drawvs Charlton Athletic0:0
- Lossvs Middlesbrough0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Derby County2 pts
- Drawvs Wrexham1:1
- Drawvs Burnley1:1
- Lossvs Birmingham City1:2
- Lossvs West Bromwich Albion0:1
- Lossvs West Ham United0:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- QPR
- OutKaramoko DembeleKnee injury
- DoubtIlias ChairMuscle injury; sources differ: doubtful or out
- DoubtRichard KoneSources differ: in the predicted XI or out with a muscle injury
- Derby County
- OutMatt ClarkeCalf injury
- OutEiran CashinCalf injury
- OutCharlie TaylorHamstring injury
- OutPatrick AgyemangAchilles injury
- DoubtMax JohnstonInjured in training, status unclear
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionWe agree QPR are the likelier winners, but a side with no win in five is not one we back to win. Goals at both ends are the steadier call: QPR have scored in seven of their last ten games, and Derby's defence is missing three players.
Scenario & score
QPR press at home, Derby answer on the break or from a set piece. QPR have put 4.7 shots a game on target over their last ten and allowed 3.2, so they should create the better chances at Loftus Road against a Derby back line rebuilt without Clarke, Cashin and Taylor. Derby's goal is more likely to come from a counter or a set piece. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative, the result QPR keep producing. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 2:2 or 1:2 and loses with any clean sheet: 1:0, 2:0 or 0:0.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Derby have the weaker attack: 9 goals in their last 10 games, 3.7 shots on target a game, and no goal in 3 of those 10.
- 02Their main striker, Patrick Agyemang, is out with an Achilles injury.
- 03QPR have already drawn 0:0 at Charlton in this run, and the both-teams-to-score price comes from a single preview site, not from the UK bookmakers' average.
Key factQPR drew 1:1 at West Ham on Friday after 2:2 with Preston, 1:1 at West Brom and 0:0 at Charlton, and lost 0:1 at home to Middlesbrough: no win in five, but 3-6-1 over ten games with 12 goals for and 9 against. Derby have one win in ten (1-3-6, 9:17): 1:1 with Wrexham and at Burnley, then defeats by Birmingham, West Brom and West Ham. Both teams scored in 7 of QPR's last 10 games and 6 of Derby's; QPR kept two clean sheets in that run, Derby one.
Full match analysis