Single · No. 92 · 14 OCTWon
Betis vs Porto
- 01Betis vs PortoBetis draw no bet1.50 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.50
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +1.00 unit
- Our estimate
- 58–62%
Published 14 OCT 09:2418+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Real Betis at home to Porto, draw no bet. Betis have won eight of their last ten and are third in LaLiga; Porto travel without their suspended centre-back Jan Bednarek. Porto are hard to break down, so a draw is a real outcome and we let it return the stake rather than lose it.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 14 OCT · 20:00 UK
Betis vs Porto
Betis draw no bet1.50Won
Why this pickBetis take almost 20 shots a game over their last five and won 3:2 at Lille on matchday 1; Porto lost 0:2 at home to Manchester City in the same round and miss Bednarek at the back. Three of five CBS experts pick a 2:1 Betis win. The risks are Porto's defence, which allows only 3.2 shots on target a game over ten, and possible Betis rotation before Saturday's home game against Barcelona; a draw only returns the stake. Our score is 2:1.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Betis draw no bet
- 58–62%
Form · Betis 13 from 15. Porto 12 from 15.
Betis13 pts
- Winvs Osasuna5:2
- Drawvs Deportivo La Coruña1:1
- Winvs Getafe1:0
- Winvs Villarreal2:1
- Winvs Lille3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Porto12 pts
- Winvs Marítimo2:1
- Winvs Benfica3:1
- Winvs Casa Pia4:1
- Lossvs Manchester City0:2
- Winvs Moreirense2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Lineups · Expected
- Betis
- OutJunior FirpoAdductor injury
- DoubtAitor RuibalKnee injury
- DoubtAntonyMuscle problem, to be assessed
- Porto
- OutJan BednarekSuspended
- OutZaidu SanusiMuscle injury
- OutWilliam GomesAnkle injury
- DoubtNehuén PérezThigh injury, nearly fit
What others predict · Consensus 4 of 4
Our positionSports Mole and three of the five CBS experts go for 2:1 to Betis, and every human score we read has both teams scoring. The models give Betis under 50%, so we pick the goals rather than the winner.
Scenario & score
Betis press at La Cartuja, Porto strike on the break. Betis have taken 19.8 shots a game over their last five matches, and Isco and Ezzalzouli should find room against a Porto defence without Bednarek. Betis concede chances too (1.74 expected goals against a game in LaLiga), so Porto can score from a transition or a set piece. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Porto keep Betis to few shots on target, as they have done all season (3.2 a game over ten), or if Pellegrini rotates before Barcelona. Betis draw no bet wins with 2:1, 1:0, 2:0 or 3:1, returns the stake with 1:1, 2:2 or 0:0, and loses only if Porto win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Porto kept five clean sheets in their last ten games and allow only 3.2 shots on target a game.
- 02Betis host Barcelona on Saturday, three days later, and Pellegrini may rest Isco or Ceballos.
- 03Betis's table position flatters them: 6.8 points above their expected points, so their attack may be weaker than the results suggest.
Key factBetis beat Osasuna 5:2 on Sunday after 1:1 at Deportivo La Coruña, 1:0 against Getafe, 2:1 at Villarreal and 3:2 at Lille: eight wins in their last ten games and 19 points from eight LaLiga rounds, though 6.8 more than their expected points (Understat). Porto won 2:1 at Marítimo on Saturday after 3:1 against Benfica and 4:1 at Casa Pia; their only defeat in ten was 0:2 at home to Manchester City on matchday 1, and they conceded six goals in those ten games. Both teams scored in six of Betis's last ten games and four of Porto's; Porto kept five clean sheets, and Betis scored in all ten.
Full match analysis