Bednarek applauds Porto's boos. Eight from eight in Portugal, zero in Europe
Our take Porto lose Europe in both boxes, not the stands
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Seville
BetisvsPorto Real Betis vs FC Porto · prediction
Score
3:2
Date
14 OCT
City
Seville
Status
Full time
BET3:2PORFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Betis vs Porto?
Our Real Betis vs Porto prediction is a Betis win, most likely 2:1, and we back Betis draw no bet. Manuel Pellegrini's Betis, back in the Champions League for the first time in 21 years, are third in LaLiga and won 3:2 at Lille on matchday 1; Porto lead the Portuguese league by five points (Sports Mole) and have won nine of their last ten games. It is the clubs' first official meeting (Opta Analyst).
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 58–62%
- Market
- Betis draw no bet
- Price now
- 1.50
Betis vs Porto at a glance
| Match | Real Betis vs FC Porto |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Seville |
| Venue | Estadio de La Cartuja, Seville |
| Our pick | Betis draw no bet · 1.50 · bet |
| Our estimate | 58–62% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We think Betis win at La Cartuja. |
No. 04 · Form
Betis vs Porto: recent form
Betis 13 from 15. Porto 12 from 15.
Betis13 pts
- Winvs Osasuna5:2
- Drawvs Deportivo La Coruña1:1
- Winvs Getafe1:0
- Winvs Villarreal2:1
- Winvs Lille3:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Porto12 pts
- Winvs Marítimo2:1
- Winvs Benfica3:1
- Winvs Casa Pia4:1
- Lossvs Manchester City0:2
- Winvs Moreirense2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factBetis beat Osasuna 5:2 on Sunday after 1:1 at Deportivo La Coruña, 1:0 against Getafe, 2:1 at Villarreal and 3:2 at Lille: eight wins in their last ten games and 19 points from eight LaLiga rounds, though 6.8 more than their expected points (Understat). Porto won 2:1 at Marítimo on Saturday after 3:1 against Benfica and 4:1 at Casa Pia; their only defeat in ten was 0:2 at home to Manchester City on matchday 1, and they conceded six goals in those ten games. Both teams scored in six of Betis's last ten games and four of Porto's; Porto kept five clean sheets, and Betis scored in all ten.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Betis vs Porto team news
Porto without suspended Bednarek; Betis without Firpo.
Betis
- OutJunior FirpoAdductor injury
- DoubtAitor RuibalKnee injury
- DoubtAntonyMuscle problem, to be assessed
Porto
- OutJan BednarekSuspended
- OutZaidu SanusiMuscle injury
- OutWilliam GomesAnkle injury
- DoubtNehuén PérezThigh injury, nearly fit
TacticsJan Bednarek serves the second game of a two-match ban from last season's Europa League tie with Nottingham Forest (Sports Mole), so Porto lose their first-choice centre-back. Sports Mole also lists Zaidu Sanusi (muscle) and William Gomes (ankle) as out, with Nehuén Pérez nearly fit after a thigh problem. For Betis, Junior Firpo is out with an adductor injury, Aitor Ruibal is a doubt with a knee problem and Antony will be assessed after a muscle problem; we found only one source for these. Sports Mole expects Isco behind Parrott with Riquelme and Ezzalzouli wide, and Ceballos and Bernal in midfield.
In the news
Pellegrini blamed Lamine Yamal. Hours later, Bernal blamed himself
Our take Barça would have won this 11 v 11
Pellegrini wanted by Chile as Betis, 3rd on 19 points, host unbeaten Barça
Our take Chile can wait. Betis can't
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in Betis vs Porto?
Most previews have Betis winning and both teams scoring.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Betis 45.6% | Same side |
| Kickoff.co.uk | Betis 48%, both teams to score 60% | Same side |
| Sports Mole | Betis 2:1 | Same side |
| CBS Sports | Five experts: 1:1, 1:2, 2:1, 2:1, 2:1 | Same side |
Our positionSports Mole and three of the five CBS experts go for 2:1 to Betis, and every human score we read has both teams scoring. The models give Betis under 50%, so we pick the goals rather than the winner.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Betis vs Porto predicted score
Betis press at La Cartuja, Porto strike on the break.
Betis have taken 19.8 shots a game over their last five matches, and Isco and Ezzalzouli should find room against a Porto defence without Bednarek. Betis concede chances too (1.74 expected goals against a game in LaLiga), so Porto can score from a transition or a set piece. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Porto keep Betis to few shots on target, as they have done all season (3.2 a game over ten), or if Pellegrini rotates before Barcelona. Betis draw no bet wins with 2:1, 1:0, 2:0 or 3:1, returns the stake with 1:1, 2:2 or 0:0, and loses only if Porto win.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
BET
POR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Betis vs Porto pick: Betis draw no bet
Betis draw no bet: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Betis win at La Cartuja. They have won eight of their last ten, take almost 20 shots a game over their last five, and Porto are without their first-choice centre-back Bednarek, suspended. Porto give away few shots on target, though, and 1:1 is a real outcome, so we take draw no bet: a draw returns the stake. Our score is 2:1.
Our probability58–62%
Our pickBetis draw no bet
Odds1.50
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:02:12:03:03:13:2…
- Money back with
- 1:10:02:2
- Loses with
- 0:11:20:22:30:3…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A Betis line-up without Isco and Ceballos, rested before Barcelona: then 1:1 or 0:1 becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Betis win | 2.04 | 49% |
| Draw | 3.63 | 27.5% |
| Porto win | 3.39 | 29.5% |
| Betis or draw | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Porto or draw | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Betis draw no bet | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 61.7% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 47.6% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side might not score.
- Porto kept five clean sheets in their last ten games and allow only 3.2 shots on target a game.
- Betis host Barcelona on Saturday, three days later, and Pellegrini may rest Isco or Ceballos.
- Betis's table position flatters them: 6.8 points above their expected points, so their attack may be weaker than the results suggest.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Betis draw no bet at 1.50, a single. A Betis win takes it, a draw returns the stake, and only a Porto win loses it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Betis draw no bet at 1.50 (earlier call: both teams to score, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.50
- Happened
- 3:2Betis win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.