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Single · No. 94 · 15 OCTLost

Jovic vs Chwalinska

  1. 01Iva Jovic vs Maja ChwalinskaIva Jovic win1.30 · Lost
Total odds
1.30
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
72–75%
Published 14 OCT 18:45
Odds: average of 31 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 18:2218+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Iva Jovic to beat Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan Open third round: Jovic is 27-11 on hard courts this season, Chwalinska is a clay-court player who needed three sets on Wednesday.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 15 OCT · 05:00 UK

Iva Jovic vs Maja Chwalinska

Iva Jovic win1.30Lost
Why this pickJovic beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1 on Wednesday and is 38-10 as a favourite this season. Chwalinska is 19-6 on clay but 16-10 on hard courts, and lost the first set 1:6 to Marie Bouzkova on Wednesday before turning it round. Jovic holds serve in 70.3% of her service games, Chwalinska in 65.2%. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
72–75%

Form · Jovic won eight of the last nine games against Yastremska; Chwalinska needed three sets

Iva JovicLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Eala A. 7-5, 3-6, 7-5
  2. Lost to Gauff C. 6-1, 6-4
  3. Won v Sonmez Z. 7-6(5), 6-4
  4. Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-1
  5. Won v Bucsa C. 6-4, 6-1
  6. Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 6-2
  7. Won v Dart H. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
  8. Won v Rakhimova K. 6-1, 7-5
  9. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-1, 6-3
  10. Won v Yastremska D. 6-4, 6-1
Maja ChwalinskaLast 10: 5-5
  1. Lost to Shnaider D. 6-2, 7-6(3)
  2. Lost to Parks A. 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
  3. Lost to Townsend T. 6-2, 6-3
  4. Won v Sramkova R. 6-4, 6-2
  5. Won v Oliynykova O. 6-0, 6-1
  6. Won v Mertens E. 6-2, 6-2
  7. Lost to Fernandez L. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
  8. Lost to Yastremska D. 6-3, 6-1
  9. Won v Sherif M. 6-3, 6-2
  10. Won v Bouzkova M. 1-6, 6-1, 6-1

Stats comparison

StatJovicChwalinska
On hard courts27-1116-10
Last 10 matches8-25-5
Service games held70.3%65.2%
Return games won41.2%41.0%

Our scenario

6:3, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Jovic in two sets. Jovic takes the ball early and dictates with her first strike; Chwalinska wants long rallies and changes of pace. On a hard court Jovic should hold more easily (70.3% against 65.2%). We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Jovic win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Chwalinska is awkward to play: she turned her match against Bouzkova around after losing the first set 1:6.
  2. 02Jovic lost to Swiatek 1:6, 3:6 last week, so she can still be overpowered on a bad day.
  3. 03At 1.30 there is little room for a slow start.
Jovic this autumnShe won the title in Guadalajara in September without dropping a set in the last three rounds. In Beijing she beat Harriet Dart and Kamilla Rakhimova before losing to Iga Swiatek 1:6, 3:6. In Wuhan she had a bye and beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1.
Full match analysis