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Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Third round · Hard
Iva JovicvsMaja Chwalinska prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
15 OCT
Court
Court 1
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 12:00 PM), after Pohankova v Sakkari, not before 12:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
4:6 1:6
JOV05:00 UKCHWIn our bets
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Jovic vs Chwalinska?
Iva Jovic, the 10th seed, plays Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan Open third round on Thursday. We back Jovic to win the match, most likely 6:3, 6:4.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 72–75%
- Our pick
- Iva Jovic win
- Odds at publish
- 1.30
- Set by set
- 6:3, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 05:00
Jovic vs Chwalinska at a glance
| Match | Iva Jovic vs Maja Chwalinska |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Third round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 15 OCT · 05:00 UK · 12:00 local |
| Court | Court 1 · Second match on court (not before 12:00 PM), after Pohankova v Sakkari |
| Our pick | Iva Jovic win · 1.30 · bet |
| Our estimate | 72–75% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:3, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Jovic had a bye and then beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1 on Wednesday, winning eight of the last nine games. |
No. 02 · Form
Jovic vs Chwalinska: recent form
Jovic won eight of the last nine games against Yastremska; Chwalinska needed three sets
Iva JovicLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Eala A. 7-5, 3-6, 7-5
- Lost to Gauff C. 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Sonmez Z. 7-6(5), 6-4
- Won v Frech M. 6-2, 6-1
- Won v Bucsa C. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Dart H. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Rakhimova K. 6-1, 7-5
- Lost to Swiatek I. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Yastremska D. 6-4, 6-1
Maja ChwalinskaLast 10: 5-5
- Lost to Shnaider D. 6-2, 7-6(3)
- Lost to Parks A. 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Townsend T. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Sramkova R. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Oliynykova O. 6-0, 6-1
- Won v Mertens E. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Fernandez L. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Yastremska D. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Sherif M. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Bouzkova M. 1-6, 6-1, 6-1
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Yastremska D.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Swiatek I.Beijing · 07.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Won v | Rakhimova K.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Dart H.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Stearns P.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 20.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Bucsa C.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 19.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Frech M.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 17.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sonmez Z.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 16.09.26 | 7-6(5), 6-4 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.US Open · 08.09.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Eala A.US Open · 06.09.26 | 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Bouzkova M.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 1-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sherif M.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Yastremska D.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Fernandez L.Singapore WTA · 26.09.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Mertens E.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Oliynykova O.Singapore WTA · 23.09.26 | 6-0, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sramkova R.Singapore WTA · 21.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Townsend T.US Open · 31.08.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Parks A.Monterrey · 27.08.26 | 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Shnaider D.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26 | 6-2, 7-6(3) |
Jovic this autumnShe won the title in Guadalajara in September without dropping a set in the last three rounds. In Beijing she beat Harriet Dart and Kamilla Rakhimova before losing to Iga Swiatek 1:6, 3:6. In Wuhan she had a bye and beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1.
No. 03 · Context
The 10th seed against the 16th seed, a clay-court specialist, for a quarter-final place
- Chwalinska’s week
- She beat Mayar Sherif 6:3, 6:2 and Marie Bouzkova 1:6, 6:1, 6:1. In Singapore she reached the semi-finals and lost to Leylah Fernandez in three sets; in Beijing she lost to Yastremska 3:6, 1:6.
- Season and surface
- Jovic is 41-20 this season and 27-11 on hard courts. Chwalinska is 35-18, of which 19-6 on clay and 16-10 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- They have never played each other.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Jovic is 27-11 on hard courts this season, Chwalinska 16-10
| Stat | Jovic | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 41-20 (better) | 35-18 |
| On hard courts | 27-11 (better) | 16-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 38-10 (better) | 26-10 |
| As underdog | 3-10 | 9-7 (better) |
| Stat | Jovic | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 58 | 21 |
| Aces per match | 2.3 (better) | 0.9 |
| Double faults per match | 2.3 | 2.0 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 60.5% | 70.4% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 65.3% (better) | 60.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.1% | 49.2% (better) |
| Service games held | 70.3% (better) | 65.2% |
| Break points saved | 58.4% (better) | 55.7% |
| Stat | Jovic | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 46.0% (better) | 45.5% |
| Return games won | 41.2% (better) | 41.0% |
| Break points converted | 50.6% | 55.8% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Jovic vs Chwalinska?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Jovic, 72.6% | Same side |
| Tennis.com (win probability) | Jovic, 74% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Jovic in two sets | Same side |
Our position3 of 3 back Jovic. We are on Jovic’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Jovic vs Chwalinska predicted score
Jovic in two sets
Jovic takes the ball early and dictates with her first strike; Chwalinska wants long rallies and changes of pace. On a hard court Jovic should hold more easily (70.3% against 65.2%). We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Jovic win still wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:3, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Jovic vs Chwalinska pick: Iva Jovic win
Jovic to win the match
Why we back it
Jovic had a bye and then beat Dayana Yastremska 6:4, 6:1 on Wednesday, winning eight of the last nine games. She is 27-11 on hard courts this season and 38-10 as a favourite. Chwalinska is 19-6 on clay but 16-10 on hard courts, and on Wednesday she lost the first set 1:6 to Marie Bouzkova before winning 6:1, 6:1. Jovic holds serve in 70.3% of her service games, Chwalinska in 65.2%. We expect 6:3, 6:4; a three-set win also wins the bet.
Our probability72–75%
Our pickIva Jovic win
Odds1.30
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:3, 6:42:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Jovic’s fitness before the match, or her price moving outside 1.25–1.45.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Chwalinska is awkward to play: she turned her match against Bouzkova around after losing the first set 1:6.
- Jovic lost to Swiatek 1:6, 3:6 last week, so she can still be overpowered on a bad day.
- At 1.30 there is little room for a slow start.
No. 10 · Our call
Bet
We back Jovic to win the match: she is 27-11 on hard courts this season, while Chwalinska, much stronger on clay, needed three sets on Wednesday.
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