Double: Florida vs Vancouver + Vegas vs Calgary

Why this betAn NHL double of two home favourites, overtime and shootout included: Florida against a Vancouver side on five straight defeats, and Vegas against a Calgary team that has scored 12 goals in six games. Both games start at 19:00 local time, and both models we checked give each home side between 68% and 73%.

Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 16 OCT · 00:00 UK

Florida vs Vancouver

Florida win · incl. OT1.33Won

Why this pickVancouver play their fifth straight road game and their fourth in seven days, after defeats of 2:7, 1:4, 2:6 and 2:3. They allow 31.6 shots a game and kill 57.1% of penalties; last season they took 35.4% of the points. DRatings gives Florida 72.4% and Dimers 68.2%. Florida are without Barkov and Marchand, and Akira Schmid (.875 this season) is expected in goal with Markstrom day-to-day, but a win after overtime still counts.

Predicted score · alt 3:2: 4:2
Our estimate · Florida win · incl. OT: 71–74%

Form · Florida 2-3 in their last 5. Vancouver 0-5.

Florida2-3

Winvs Columbus7:3
Lossvs Buffalo3:5
Lossvs Minnesota1:4
Winvs Los Angeles2:1
Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Anaheim2:3 OT

: 3.00
: 3.20
: 40%
: 20%

Vancouver0-5

Lossvs NY Islanders2:3
Lossvs NY Rangers2:6
Lossvs New Jersey1:4
Lossvs Carolina2:7
Lossvs Vegas2:3

: 1.80
: 4.60
: 40%
: 0%

Lineups · Expected

Florida
OutAleksander BarkovLower body, injured reserve, about 6 to 8 weeks
OutBrad MarchandLeg, injured reserve
DoubtJacob MarkstromUndisclosed, day-to-day

Vancouver
OutThatcher DemkoHip, injured reserve
OutFilip ChytilShoulder, injured reserve

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree with both: Florida win. The line gives Florida about 71% once the margin is removed, and both models sit within three points of it. DRatings projects a gap of almost a goal and a half. We take the win with overtime included, so a 3:2 after overtime still counts.

Scenario & score

Florida's volume against a team that cannot keep the puck out. 4:2 to Florida is our main score: Vancouver give up 31.6 shots a game and kill only 57.1% of penalties, and Florida have had two days to recover from their back-to-back in Buffalo and Columbus. 3:2 to Florida after overtime is the alternative if Meriläinen, at .926 this season, keeps Vancouver in the game. Any Florida win, 4:2, 3:1 or 3:2 after overtime, wins this leg; any Vancouver win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

01Florida were an average team last season: 51.2% of the points and a goal difference of -0.30 a game.
02Barkov and Marchand are out, and Florida have lost three of their last five.
03Schmid is at .875 this season; Meriläinen is at .926.
04Seven or eight games are a small sample, and Vancouver scored 26 goals in them.

Key factFlorida are 3-2-2. They won 7:3 in Columbus on Tuesday, a night after losing 3:5 in Buffalo; before that came a 1:4 home defeat by Minnesota, a 2:1 win in Los Angeles and an overtime loss in Anaheim. Vancouver have lost five straight: 2:3 at home to Vegas, then 2:7 in Carolina, 1:4 in New Jersey, 2:6 at the Rangers and 2:3 at the Islanders on Tuesday. They concede 4.75 goals a game this season.

Full match analysis

Leg 2 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 16 OCT · 03:00 UK

Vegas vs Calgary

Vegas win · incl. OT1.31Won

Why this pickVegas are 6-2-0 with a goal difference of +1.25 a game and outshoot opponents 30.8 to 25.0. Calgary are 1-5-0, have conceded 29 goals in six games, and Dustin Wolf is at .839. DRatings gives Vegas 72.2% and Dimers 69.4%. Carter Hart is expected in goal: over three seasons he is level with Adin Hill (.894 against .895). Vegas play their fourth game in seven days, and two of their last four wins needed overtime or a shootout, which this market covers.

Predicted score · alt 3:2: 4:2
Our estimate · Vegas win · incl. OT: 73–76%

Form · Vegas 4-1 in their last 5. Calgary 1-4.

Vegas4-1

Winvs Nashville5:2
Lossvs Minnesota2:4
Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
Winvs Seattle6:2

: 3.80
: 2.40
: 80%
: 40%

Calgary1-4

Winvs Anaheim4:2
Lossvs Anaheim2:4
Lossvs Colorado3:7
Lossvs Seattle1:6
Lossvs Vancouver1:4

: 2.20
: 4.60
: 80%
: 0%

Lineups · Expected

Vegas
OutParker WotherspoonUpper body, out

Calgary
OutJonathan HuberdeauHip, injured reserve
OutSamuel HonzekLower body, week-to-week

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionWe agree with both: Vegas win. The line gives Vegas about 73% once the margin is removed, and DRatings projects a gap of almost a goal and a half. We take the win with overtime included: two of Vegas's last four wins came after 60 minutes, and results like that still count.

Scenario & score

Vegas keep the puck, Calgary chase the game. 4:2 to Vegas is our main score: Vegas take 30.8 shots a game with a 23.3% power play, and Calgary score 2.00 goals a game while conceding 4.83. 3:2 to Vegas after overtime is the alternative if Wolf plays to his three-season level of .902. Any Vegas win wins this leg, after overtime or a shootout too; only a Calgary win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

01Vegas play their fourth game in seven days and flew 2541 km back from Nashville.
02Two of Vegas's last four wins needed overtime or a shootout.
03Wolf has been at .902 over three seasons; his .839 start may not last.
04Calgary kill 85.0% of penalties this season, which can blunt the Vegas power play.

Key factVegas have won four of their last five: 6:2 in Seattle, 4:3 in a shootout against Toronto, 2:1 in overtime against Los Angeles and 5:2 in Nashville on Tuesday, with a 2:4 loss in Minnesota the night before. Calgary lost four straight, 1:4 in Vancouver, 1:6 in Seattle, 3:7 at home to Colorado and 2:4 at home to Anaheim, before winning the rematch 4:2 in Anaheim on Tuesday.

Full match analysis