Vegas Golden Knights vs Calgary Flames hockey prediction

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Vegas vs Calgary?

Our Golden Knights vs Flames prediction: the Vegas Golden Knights beat the Calgary Flames at T-Mobile Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:2. Vegas are 6-2-0 with a goal difference of +1.25 a game; Calgary are 1-5-0 at -2.83 and have scored 12 goals in six games. Carter Hart and Dustin Wolf are the expected goalies, neither confirmed yet.

Predicted score · alt 3:2: 4:2
Our estimate: 73–76%

Vegas win · incl. OT · odds 1.31Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Vegas win · incl. OT
Our bet: Double No. 97 · total odds 1.74
Leg odds: 1.31

Vegas vs Calgary at a glance

Match	Vegas Golden Knights vs Calgary Flames
Competition	NHL · Regular season
Kick-off	16 OCT · 03:00 UK
Venue	T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Our pick	Vegas win · incl. OT · 1.31 · Double No. 97 · total odds 1.74
Our estimate	73–76%
Predicted score	4:2
Main reason	Calgary have scored 12 goals in six games and conceded 29, and their only win came on Tuesday in Anaheim.

No. 04 · Form

Vegas vs Calgary: recent form

Vegas 4-1 in their last 5. Calgary 1-4.

Vegas: Won 5:2 in Nashville on Tue 13 Oct · two days of rest · 2541 km flight home · fourth game in seven days
Calgary: Won 4:2 in Anaheim on Tue 13 Oct · two days of rest · 354 km to Las Vegas · second straight road game

Vegas4-1

Winvs Nashville5:2
Lossvs Minnesota2:4
Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles2:1 OT
Win in overtime or shootoutvs Toronto4:3 SO
Winvs Seattle6:2

: 3.80
: 2.40
: 80%
: 40%

Calgary1-4

Winvs Anaheim4:2
Lossvs Anaheim2:4
Lossvs Colorado3:7
Lossvs Seattle1:6
Lossvs Vancouver1:4

: 2.20
: 4.60
: 80%
: 0%

Key factVegas have won four of their last five: 6:2 in Seattle, 4:3 in a shootout against Toronto, 2:1 in overtime against Los Angeles and 5:2 in Nashville on Tuesday, with a 2:4 loss in Minnesota the night before. Calgary lost four straight, 1:4 in Vancouver, 1:6 in Seattle, 3:7 at home to Colorado and 2:4 at home to Anaheim, before winning the rematch 4:2 in Anaheim on Tuesday.

Attack & defence	VGK	CGY
	6-2-0	1-5-0
	3.75	2.00
	2.50	4.83
	30.8	29.3
Shots against	25.0	28.0

Special teams	VGK	CGY
	23.3%	15.4%
	80.0%	85.0%

Last season	VGK	CGY
	39-26-17	34-39-9
Points %	57.9%	47.0%
Goal difference per game	+0.18	-0.57
	24.6%	16.2%
	81.4%	80.4%

NHL 2026-27, 8 and 6 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Vegas vs Calgary: starting goalies and team news

Hart and Wolf expected; neither is confirmed yet.

VegasExpected

Carter Hart

: .906
: 2.41
: 3-2-0

Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 Oct, before the morning skate; Adin Hill started in Nashville on 13 Oct

CalgaryExpected

Dustin Wolf

: .839
: 4.56
: 1-3-0

Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 Oct, before the morning skate; Calgary's No. 1 by starts

Vegas

OutParker WotherspoonUpper body, out

Calgary

OutJonathan HuberdeauHip, injured reserve
OutSamuel HonzekLower body, week-to-week

TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Carter Hart (3-2-0, .906) for Vegas and Dustin Wolf (1-3-0, .839, 4.56 goals against a game) for Calgary, both unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 October. Adin Hill played in Nashville on Tuesday; over three seasons Hart is at .894 and Hill at .895, so the rotation costs Vegas almost nothing. Wolf is at .902 over three seasons, well above his start. Vegas are without defenceman Parker Wotherspoon (upper body); Jack Eichel centres Ivan Barbashev and Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner plays on the second line with William Karlsson. Calgary have Jonathan Huberdeau on injured reserve and Samuel Honzek week-to-week; Mikael Backlund centres Yegor Sharangovich and Joel Farabee. Absences checked on the Daily Faceoff line combinations and the ESPN injury list.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Vegas vs Calgary?

Both models we checked pick Vegas.

Source	Pick	Versus us
DRatings	Vegas 72.2%, projected 3.75 to 2.29	Same side
Dimers	Vegas 69.4%	Same side

Our positionWe agree with both: Vegas win. The line gives Vegas about 73% once the margin is removed, and DRatings projects a gap of almost a goal and a half. We take the win with overtime included: two of Vegas's last four wins came after 60 minutes, and results like that still count.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Vegas vs Calgary predicted score

Vegas keep the puck, Calgary chase the game.

4:2 to Vegas is our main score: Vegas take 30.8 shots a game with a 23.3% power play, and Calgary score 2.00 goals a game while conceding 4.83. 3:2 to Vegas after overtime is the alternative if Wolf plays to his three-season level of .902. Any Vegas win wins this leg, after overtime or a shootout too; only a Calgary win loses it.

Predicted score: 4:2
Alternative: 3:2

Your score

VGK4

CGY2

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Vegas vs Calgary pick: Vegas win · incl. OT

Vegas win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Calgary have scored 12 goals in six games and conceded 29, and their only win came on Tuesday in Anaheim. Vegas have won six of eight, outshoot opponents 30.8 to 25.0 and play at home after two days of rest. Last season Vegas took 57.9% of the points and Calgary 47.0%, so the gap is not only a hot start. A win of any kind is enough for us, which is why this is the second leg of our double.

Our probability73–76%

Our pickVegas win · incl. OT

Leg odds1.31

Main scenario4:2

Our scenario: 4:2alternative 3:2

What would change our mind A goalie called up from the minors for Vegas instead of Hart or Hill would make us drop this leg.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Vegas win · incl. OT	1.31	76.3%
Calgary win · incl. OT	3.53	28.3%
Vegas win in 60 min	1.51	66.2%
Draw in 60 min	5.04	19.8%
Calgary win in 60 min	5.11	19.6%
Calgary +1.5	2.05	48.8%
Vegas −1.5	1.77	56.5%
Over 6.5 goals	2.22	45%
Under 6.5 goals	1.66	60.2%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 06:35 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

Vegas play their fourth game in seven days and flew 2541 km back from Nashville.
Two of Vegas's last four wins needed overtime or a shootout.
Wolf has been at .902 over three seasons; his .839 start may not last.
Calgary kill 85.0% of penalties this season, which can blunt the Vegas power play.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

Vegas win · incl. OT is one leg of our double No. 97. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.74, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1: Florida win · incl. OT @ 1.33
Leg 2 · this match: Vegas win · incl. OT @ 1.31
Total odds: 1.74 · 1.00 unit
Published: 15 OCT 06:40

Open double No. 97 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

06:40Prediction published · Vegas win · incl. OT at 1.31

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 4:2Bet at 1.31
Happened: 6:2Vegas win

Won

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

VegasvsCalgary Vegas Golden Knights vs Calgary Flames · hockey prediction