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Single · No. 93 · 15 OCTWon

Pohankova vs Sakkari

  1. 01Mia Pohankova vs Maria SakkariMaria Sakkari win1.40 · Won
Total odds
1.40
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.40 units
Our estimate
67–70%
Published 14 OCT 18:45
Odds: average of 31 popular bookmakers, 14 OCT 18:2218+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Maria Sakkari to beat wildcard Mia Pohankova in the Wuhan Open third round: Sakkari came from a set down to beat the eighth seed Marta Kostyuk, Pohankova is ranked 202 and plays her first WTA 1000 third round.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · 15 OCT · 04:00 UK

Mia Pohankova vs Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari win1.40Won
Why this pickSakkari is 20-6 as a favourite this season and holds serve in 69.8% of her service games. Pohankova beat Anna Bondar and Wang Xiyu here, but two weeks ago she was playing a WTA 125 event in Porto. Five of six previews and models we checked back Sakkari. We expect 6:3, 6:4; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
0:2
Our estimate
67–70%

Form · Sakkari beat the eighth seed on Tuesday; Pohankova has won eight of her last ten

Mia PohankovaLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Kraus S. 6-1, 6-1
  2. Won v Jorge M. 6-4, 6-1
  3. Won v Collins K. 7-6(3), 6-4
  4. Lost to Knutson G. 7-5, 5-7, 6-3
  5. Won v Jorge F. 6-2, 6-1
  6. Won v Podrez V. 6-3, 6-4
  7. Won v Swan K. 3-6, 7-5, 6-1
  8. Lost to Timofeeva M. 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3
  9. Won v Bondar A. 6-1, 6-3
  10. Won v Wang X. 7-6(2), 6(7)-7, 6-1
Maria SakkariLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Swiatek I. 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
  2. Won v Montgomery R. 2-6, 7-5, 6-2
  3. Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2
  4. Won v Fruhvirtova L. 6-4, 6-1
  5. Won v Hibino N. 7-5, 6-1
  6. Lost to Gibson T. 6-1, 4-6, 6-2
  7. Won v Hunter S. 6-2, 6-2
  8. Lost to Svitolina E. 6-4, 7-5
  9. Won v Vekic D. 6-4, 6-2
  10. Won v Kostyuk M. 4-6, 6-2, 6-2

Stats comparison

StatPohankovaSakkari
On hard courts20-720-12
Last 10 matches8-26-4
Service games held61.1%69.8%
Return games won27.8%33.1%

Our scenario

3:6, 4:6 0:2 in sets

Sakkari in two sets. Sakkari holds serve more reliably (69.8% of service games this season) and has far more experience of this stage. Pohankova has nothing to lose and has won eight of her last ten, so the first set matters. We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Sakkari win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Pohankova has won eight of her last ten matches and plays without pressure.
  2. 02Sakkari lost two of her last ten matches as the favourite, including to Talia Gibson in Singapore.
  3. 03Sakkari dropped a set in two of her last four matches.
Sakkari this weekShe beat Donna Vekic 6:4, 6:2 on 12 October after trailing 2:4 in the first set, then Marta Kostyuk, the eighth seed, 4:6, 6:2, 6:2 on 13 October. In Beijing she lost to Elina Svitolina 4:6, 5:7.
Full match analysis