Mia PohankovavsMaria Sakkari prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Who will win Pohankova vs Sakkari?
Maria Sakkari plays wildcard Mia Pohankova in the Wuhan Open third round on Thursday. We back Sakkari to win the match, most likely 6:3, 6:4.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- Our estimate
- 67–70%
- Our pick
- Maria Sakkari win
- Odds at publish
- 1.40
- Set by set
- 3:6, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 04:00
Pohankova vs Sakkari at a glance
| Match | Mia Pohankova vs Maria Sakkari |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Third round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 15 OCT · 04:00 UK · 11:00 local |
| Court | Court 1 · First match on court |
| Our pick | Maria Sakkari win · 1.40 · bet |
| Our estimate | 67–70% |
| Predicted score | 0:2 (3:6, 4:6) |
| Main reason | Sakkari beat Donna Vekic 6:4, 6:2 and then Marta Kostyuk, the eighth seed, 4:6, 6:2, 6:2 on Tuesday. |
Pohankova vs Sakkari: recent form
Sakkari beat the eighth seed on Tuesday; Pohankova has won eight of her last ten
- Won v Kraus S. 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Jorge M. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Collins K. 7-6(3), 6-4
- Lost to Knutson G. 7-5, 5-7, 6-3
- Won v Jorge F. 6-2, 6-1
- Won v Podrez V. 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Swan K. 3-6, 7-5, 6-1
- Lost to Timofeeva M. 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3
- Won v Bondar A. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Wang X. 7-6(2), 6(7)-7, 6-1
- Lost to Swiatek I. 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Montgomery R. 2-6, 7-5, 6-2
- Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2
- Won v Fruhvirtova L. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Hibino N. 7-5, 6-1
- Lost to Gibson T. 6-1, 4-6, 6-2
- Won v Hunter S. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Svitolina E. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Vekic D. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Kostyuk M. 4-6, 6-2, 6-2
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Wang X.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6(7)-7, 6-1 |
| Won v | Bondar A.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Timofeeva M.Porto WTA · 26.09.26 | 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3 |
| Won v | Swan K.Porto WTA · 25.09.26 | 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Podrez V.Porto WTA · 24.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Jorge F.Porto WTA · 22.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Knutson G.Caldas da Rainha · 19.09.26 | 7-5, 5-7, 6-3 |
| Won v | Collins K.Caldas da Rainha · 18.09.26 | 7-6(3), 6-4 |
| Won v | Jorge M.Caldas da Rainha · 16.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Kraus S.Caldas da Rainha · 14.09.26 | 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Kostyuk M.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Vekic D.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Hunter S.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Gibson T.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 |
| Won v | Hibino N.Singapore WTA · 24.09.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Fruhvirtova L.Singapore WTA · 22.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Starodubtseva Y.US Open · 04.09.26 | 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 |
| Won v | Montgomery R.US Open · 01.09.26 | 2-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Swiatek I.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
A former world No. 3 against a wildcard ranked 202 in her first WTA 1000 third round
- Pohankova’s run
- The Slovak wildcard, ranked 202, beat Anna Bondar 6:1, 6:3 and Wang Xiyu 7:6(2), 6:7(7), 6:1. Two weeks ago she reached the semi-finals of a WTA 125 event in Porto.
- Season and surface
- Sakkari is 29-20 this season and 20-12 on hard courts. Pohankova is 29-15 and 20-7 on hard courts, most of those wins below tour level.
- Head to head
- They have never played each other.
Sakkari is 20-12 on hard courts this season and 20-6 as a favourite
| Stat | Pohankova | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 29-15 (better) | 29-20 |
| On hard courts | 20-7 (better) | 20-12 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 6-4 |
| As favourite | 22-9 | 20-6 (better) |
| As underdog | 5-5 (better) | 7-14 |
| Stat | Pohankova | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 43 |
| Aces per match | 7.5 (better) | 3.1 |
| Double faults per match | 3.5 | 2.3 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 50.0% | 62.4% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 62.7% | 64.5% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 47.8% | 50.1% (better) |
| Service games held | 61.1% | 69.8% (better) |
| Break points saved | 61.1% (better) | 57.8% |
| Stat | Pohankova | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 42.0% | 42.2% (better) |
| Return games won | 27.8% | 33.1% (better) |
| Break points converted | 62.5% (better) | 47.1% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats (Pohankova: only 2 tour-level matches with stats).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
First meeting
Who do others back in Pohankova vs Sakkari?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Sakkari, 68.8% | Same side |
| Tennis.com (win probability) | Sakkari, 66% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Sakkari in two sets | Same side |
| The Stats Zone | Sakkari to win 2-0 | Same side |
Pohankova vs Sakkari predicted score
Sakkari in two sets
Sakkari holds serve more reliably (69.8% of service games this season) and has far more experience of this stage. Pohankova has nothing to lose and has won eight of her last ten, so the first set matters. We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Sakkari win still wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- 3:6, 4:6
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 6:4, 3:6, 2:6
Our Pohankova vs Sakkari pick: Maria Sakkari win
Sakkari to win the match
Sakkari beat Donna Vekic 6:4, 6:2 and then Marta Kostyuk, the eighth seed, 4:6, 6:2, 6:2 on Tuesday. Pohankova is a wildcard ranked 202: she beat Anna Bondar 6:1, 6:3 and Wang Xiyu 7:6(2), 6:7(7), 6:1, and two weeks ago she was playing a WTA 125 event in Porto. Sakkari holds serve in 69.8% of her service games this season and is 20-6 as a favourite. We expect a straight-sets win, most likely 6:3, 6:4; a three-set win also wins the bet.
- Our scenario
- 3:6, 4:60:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 3:6, 2:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Sakkari’s fitness before the match, or her price moving above 1.45.
What could beat our pick?
- Pohankova has won eight of her last ten matches and plays without pressure.
- Sakkari lost two of her last ten matches as the favourite, including to Talia Gibson in Singapore.
- Sakkari dropped a set in two of her last four matches.
Bet
We back Sakkari to win the match: she came from a set down to beat the eighth seed Marta Kostyuk, while Pohankova, ranked 202, plays her first WTA 1000 third round.