Single: Colorado vs Pittsburgh

Why this betA single on Colorado to beat Pittsburgh at home, overtime and shootout included. Last season Colorado took 73.8% of the points with a goal difference of plus 1.21 a game; Pittsburgh have lost four of their last five and their expected starter Arturs Silovs has stopped .883 of shots over three seasons.

Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 17 OCT · 02:00 UK

Colorado vs Pittsburgh

Colorado win · incl. OT1.46Won

Why this pickColorado are 4-2-1 with plus 1.29 goals a game and outshoot opponents 30.6 to 25.1. Pittsburgh are 3-3-1, lost 5:3 in Chicago on Tuesday and fly in from there. Mackenzie Blackwood is expected in goal for Colorado (.908 over three seasons); Scott Wedgewood, who played on Wednesday, is at .916, so either starter is fine for us. DRatings gives Colorado 68.2%. The risk: it is Colorado’s third game in four nights, and Nicolas Roy and Zachary L’Heureux are day-to-day. We expect 4:2; a win in overtime also counts.

Predicted score · alt 3:2: 4:2
Our estimate · Colorado win · incl. OT: 66–68%

Form · Colorado 2-3 in their last 5. Pittsburgh 1-4.

Colorado2-3

Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:3 SO
Winvs Dallas3:2
Lossvs Toronto3:6
Winvs Calgary7:3
Lossvs Winnipeg2:3

: 3.40
: 3.40
: 40%
: 20%

Pittsburgh1-4

Lossvs Chicago3:5
Win in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:1 SO
Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Columbus2:3 SO
Lossvs Washington3:5
Lossvs Winnipeg2:3

: 2.40
: 3.40
: 40%
: 40%

Lineups · Expected

Colorado
DoubtNicolas RoyLower body, day-to-day
DoubtZachary L'HeureuxUpper body, day-to-day

Pittsburgh
OutTrevor van RiemsdykLower body, injured reserve

What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1

Our positionWe agree: Colorado win. Once the margin is removed, the line gives Colorado about 65%; DRatings has 68.2% and we have 66 to 68%. Dimers had not posted this game on Friday morning, and the Associated Press preview gives no pick, so DRatings is the only outside model behind us. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included, because both of Colorado's games against Dallas this week ended 3:2.

Scenario & score

Colorado's shot volume against a goalie at .883 over three seasons. 4:2 to Colorado is our main score. Colorado outshoot opponents 30.6 to 25.1 a game this season, and Silovs has saved .883 of shots over three seasons. Pittsburgh had the better power play of the two last season, 24.1% against 17.1%, so we expect them to score with the extra man at least once. 3:2 to Colorado after overtime is the alternative if a third game in four nights slows the home side. Any Colorado win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout, wins this bet; any Pittsburgh win loses it.

Arguing against ourselves

01Colorado are 2-3 in their last five and play their third game in four nights.
02Pittsburgh's power play converted 24.1% last season, the better of the two; Colorado's was at 17.1%.
03Blackwood has saved only .879 in five starts this season.
04DRatings is the only outside model we found, and neither starting goalie is confirmed.

Key factColorado are 4-2-1 and 2-3 in their last five. They lost 2:3 in a shootout at home to Dallas on Wednesday, a night after winning 3:2 in Dallas; before that came a 3:6 home loss to Toronto, a 7:3 win in Calgary and a 2:3 loss in Winnipeg. Pittsburgh are 3-3-1 and 1-4 in their last five: 2:3 at home to Winnipeg, 3:5 in Washington, a shootout loss in Columbus, a shootout win over Dallas and 3:5 in Chicago on Tuesday. Colorado score 4.43 goals a game this season, Pittsburgh 3.57, and both concede 3.14.

Full match analysis