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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Denver
ColoradovsPittsburgh Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins · hockey prediction
Score
5:2
Date · UK
17 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 16 OCT
City
Denver
Status
Full time
COL5:2PITFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Colorado vs Pittsburgh?
Our Avalanche vs Penguins prediction: the Colorado Avalanche beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at Ball Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:2. Last season Colorado took 73.8% of the points with a goal difference of +1.21 a game; Pittsburgh took 59.8% and have now lost four of their last five. Mackenzie Blackwood and Arturs Silovs are the expected goalies, neither confirmed yet.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 4:2
- Our estimate
- 66–68%
- Market
- Colorado win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.46
Colorado vs Pittsburgh at a glance
| Match | Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 02:00 UK |
| Venue | Ball Arena, Denver |
| Our pick | Colorado win · incl. OT · 1.46 · bet |
| Our estimate | 66–68% |
| Predicted score | 4:2 |
| Main reason | Last season Colorado were one of the best teams in the league by goal difference, +1.21 a game with 73.8% of the points, while Pittsburgh took 59.8%. |
No. 04 · Form
Colorado vs Pittsburgh: recent form
Colorado 2-3 in their last 5. Pittsburgh 1-4.
- Colorado
- Lost 2:3 in a shootout at home to Dallas on Wed 14 Oct · two days of rest · no travel · third game in four nights
- Pittsburgh
- Lost 3:5 in Chicago on Tue 13 Oct · three days of rest · 1475 km flight, one time zone west · second game of the road trip
Colorado2-3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:3 SO
- Winvs Dallas3:2
- Lossvs Toronto3:6
- Winvs Calgary7:3
- Lossvs Winnipeg2:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Pittsburgh1-4
- Lossvs Chicago3:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:1 SO
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Columbus2:3 SO
- Lossvs Washington3:5
- Lossvs Winnipeg2:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Key factColorado are 4-2-1 and 2-3 in their last five. They lost 2:3 in a shootout at home to Dallas on Wednesday, a night after winning 3:2 in Dallas; before that came a 3:6 home loss to Toronto, a 7:3 win in Calgary and a 2:3 loss in Winnipeg. Pittsburgh are 3-3-1 and 1-4 in their last five: 2:3 at home to Winnipeg, 3:5 in Washington, a shootout loss in Columbus, a shootout win over Dallas and 3:5 in Chicago on Tuesday. Colorado score 4.43 goals a game this season, Pittsburgh 3.57, and both concede 3.14.
| Attack & defence | COL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 4-2-1 | 3-3-1 |
| Points % | 64.3% | 50.0% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.29 | +0.43 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 4.43 | 3.57 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 30.6 | 28.4 |
| Shots against | 25.1 | 28.3 |
| Special teams | COL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 82.4% | 89.5% |
| Last season | COL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 55-16-11 | 41-25-16 |
| Points % | 73.8% | 59.8% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.21 | +0.30 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 33.7 | 28.6 |
| Shots against | 26.1 | 27.4 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 17.1% | 24.1% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 84.6% | 81.4% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Colorado vs Pittsburgh: starting goalies and team news
Blackwood and Silovs expected; neither is confirmed yet.
ColoradoExpected
Mackenzie Blackwood- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .879
- Starts
- 5
- SV% last season
- .904
- SV% 3 seasons
- .908
PittsburghExpected
Arturs Silovs- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .885
- Starts
- 4
- SV% last season
- .888
- SV% 3 seasons
- .883
Colorado
- DoubtNicolas RoyLower body, day-to-day
- DoubtZachary L'HeureuxUpper body, day-to-day
Pittsburgh
- OutTrevor van RiemsdykLower body, injured reserve
TacticsOur goalie model, built on starts this season and last, has Mackenzie Blackwood in goal for Colorado and Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh. Daily Faceoff had not posted Friday's starters when we checked at 04:40 UTC on 16 October. Scott Wedgewood started for Colorado on Wednesday and made 20 saves (.909). Blackwood is at .879 in five starts this season, saved .904 last season and is at .908 over three seasons, with 278 NHL starts. Wedgewood is at .916 over three seasons, so a late switch would not weaken Colorado in goal. Silovs is at .885 in four starts, .888 last season and .883 over three seasons; Sergei Murashov saved .789 in Chicago on Tuesday. Colorado's Nicolas Roy (lower body) and Zachary L'Heureux (upper body) are day-to-day and missed Wednesday's game, while Cale Makar returned that night. Pittsburgh have Trevor van Riemsdyk on injured reserve (lower body) and traded for defenceman Ryan Johnson from Buffalo. Team news comes from the Associated Press preview published by The Sports Animal on 15 October; we did not find a second source.
In the news
Hintz bloodied MacKinnon in his first NHL fight. Tonight they meet again in Denver
Our take Dallas need goals tonight, not revenge
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Colorado vs Pittsburgh?
The one outside model we found picks Colorado.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Colorado 68.2%, projected 3.96 to 2.65 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree: Colorado win. Once the margin is removed, the line gives Colorado about 65%; DRatings has 68.2% and we have 66 to 68%. Dimers had not posted this game on Friday morning, and the Associated Press preview gives no pick, so DRatings is the only outside model behind us. We take the win with overtime and the shootout included, because both of Colorado's games against Dallas this week ended 3:2.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Colorado vs Pittsburgh predicted score
Colorado's shot volume against a goalie at .883 over three seasons.
4:2 to Colorado is our main score. Colorado outshoot opponents 30.6 to 25.1 a game this season, and Silovs has saved .883 of shots over three seasons. Pittsburgh had the better power play of the two last season, 24.1% against 17.1%, so we expect them to score with the extra man at least once. 3:2 to Colorado after overtime is the alternative if a third game in four nights slows the home side. Any Colorado win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout, wins this bet; any Pittsburgh win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 4:2
- Alternative
- 3:2
Your score
COL
PIT
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Colorado vs Pittsburgh pick: Colorado win · incl. OT
Colorado win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Last season Colorado were one of the best teams in the league by goal difference, +1.21 a game with 73.8% of the points, while Pittsburgh took 59.8%. Pittsburgh have lost four of their last five and come to Denver after a 3:5 defeat in Chicago. Colorado outshoot opponents 30.6 to 25.1 a game this season, and Silovs has saved .883 over three seasons. With overtime and the shootout included, any Colorado win counts, which matters after two 3:2 games against Dallas this week.
Our probability66–68%
Our pickColorado win · incl. OT
Odds1.46
Main scenario4:2
- Our scenario
- 4:2alternative 3:2
What would change our mind A confirmed Colorado starter other than Mackenzie Blackwood or Scott Wedgewood would make us drop this bet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado win · incl. OT | 1.46 | 68.5% |
| Pittsburgh win · incl. OT | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Colorado win in 60 min | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.57 | 21.9% |
| Pittsburgh win in 60 min | 3.80 | 26.3% |
| Pittsburgh +1.5 | 1.77 | 56.5% |
Odds snapshot 16 OCT 06:33 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Colorado are 2-3 in their last five and play their third game in four nights.
- Pittsburgh's power play converted 24.1% last season, the better of the two; Colorado's was at 17.1%.
- Blackwood has saved only .879 in five starts this season.
- DRatings is the only outside model we found, and neither starting goalie is confirmed.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Colorado win · incl. OT at 1.46, a single on tonight's NHL card.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Colorado win · incl. OT at 1.46
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:2Bet at 1.46
- Happened
- 5:2Colorado win
Won
Read next
- The betColorado to beat Pittsburgh
- Earlier gameAvalanche vs Stars prediction, 14 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.