Single: Le Mans vs Toulouse — odds 1.54

Why this betA single on both teams to score in Le Mans against Toulouse in Ligue 1. Both sides had both teams scoring in eight of their last ten matches, Le Mans have scored in every one of those ten, and Toulouse have not kept a clean sheet in ten. Le Mans allow 2.45 expected goals a game this season.

Leg 1 · Football · France · Ligue 1 · 16 OCT · 19:45 UK

Le Mans vs Toulouse

Both teams to score1.54Lost

Why this pickLe Mans scored in all of their last ten matches and both teams scored in each of their last five league games: 1:3 at PSG, 2:1 against Lorient, 2:2 against Lens, 1:1 at Nice and 2:3 at Rennes. Toulouse drew 2:2 at Monaco after trailing 2:0 at half-time and conceded in every one of their last ten. Understat gives Le Mans 1.67 expected goals for and 2.45 against per game, Toulouse 2.00 and 1.59. All three previews we read expect both teams to score, two of them 2:2. The risk: Toulouse failed to score twice in ten, including 0:1 at home to Lille.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 2:2
Our estimate · Both teams to score: 64–68%

Form · Le Mans 5 from 15. Toulouse 6 from 15.

Le Mans5 pts

Lossvs PSG1:3
Winvs Lorient2:1
Drawvs Lens2:2
Drawvs Nice1:1
Lossvs Rennes2:3

: 1.60
: 2.00
: 80%
: 100%

Toulouse6 pts

Drawvs Monaco2:2
Winvs Le Havre3:2
Drawvs Lorient2:2
Lossvs Lille0:1
Drawvs Brest2:2

: 1.80
: 1.80
: 80%
: 80%

Lineups · Expected

Le Mans
OutAdil BourabaaAnkle injury, reported by one preview
DoubtColasReported by one preview
FormDjibril SidibéBack after suspension

Toulouse
DoubtRasmus NicolaisenCalf injury

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3

Our positionThe Stats Zone, the one preview with written analysis, also picks both teams to score. With footballpredictions.com and footballpredictions.ai, that makes three of three on our market, and both sites name 2:2, our main score. The Kickoff.co.uk model has Toulouse as favourites and expects at least two goals. We do not pick a winner: Toulouse have won once in five games and Le Mans once in six league games.

Scenario & score

An open game between two defences that concede. Toulouse should have more of the ball: 13.7 shots a game over their last ten against 10.8 for Le Mans. But Le Mans have scored in every one of those ten games, and Toulouse allow 14.2 shots a game and conceded in all ten. At home this season Le Mans drew 2:2 with Lens and beat Lorient 2:1, both with goals at each end. 2:2 is our main score and 1:1 the quieter version. The bet wins with any score where both sides score (1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 and up) and loses with 1:0, 0:1, 2:0, 0:2 or 0:0.

Arguing against ourselves

01Toulouse failed to score twice in their last ten games, including the 0:1 at home to Lille.
02Le Mans took 11.0 shots a game over their last five and faced 15.4: if Toulouse keep the ball, Le Mans may create little.
03Only The Stats Zone wrote a full preview; the other picks come from model sites, not reporters.

Key factLe Mans lost 1:3 at PSG last Saturday. Before that they beat Lorient 2:1 at home, drew 2:2 at home with Lens, drew 1:1 at Nice and lost 2:3 at Rennes: goals at both ends in all five. On the same Saturday Toulouse came back from 0:2 at half-time to draw 2:2 at Monaco (The Stats Zone). Before that they beat Le Havre 3:2 at home, drew 2:2 at Lorient and at Brest, and lost 0:1 at home to Lille. Over ten games both teams scored in 8 of Le Mans' matches and in 8 of Toulouse's; Le Mans failed to score in none, Toulouse kept no clean sheet. Understat's numbers for this league season: Le Mans create 1.67 expected goals a game and allow 2.45, Toulouse create 2.00 and allow 1.59. Both have six points from six games, and Toulouse have 4.5 points fewer than their expected points.

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