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Football · France · Ligue 1 · Matchday 7 · Le Mans

Le MansvsToulouse Le Mans FC vs Toulouse FC · prediction

Score
0:3
Date
16 OCT
City
Le Mans
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Our Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction is both teams to score, most likely 2:2 at the Stade Marie-Marvingt on Friday night. Both teams scored in eight of each side's last ten games. Le Mans scored in all ten, and Toulouse did not keep a single clean sheet in that run. Promoted Le Mans have one win in six Ligue 1 games and Toulouse one win in their last five, so we stay off the result and back goals at both ends.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:2
Our estimate
64–68%
Both teams to score · odds 1.54Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Both teams to score
Price now
1.54

Le Mans vs Toulouse at a glance

MatchLe Mans FC vs Toulouse FC
CompetitionLigue 1 · Matchday 7
Kick-off16 OCT · 19:45 UK · 20:45 Le Mans
VenueStade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our pickBoth teams to score · 1.54 · bet
Our estimate64–68%
Predicted score2:2
Main reasonEvery number on this game points to goals at both ends.
No. 04 · Form

Le Mans vs Toulouse: recent form

Le Mans 5 from 15. Toulouse 6 from 15.

Le Mans5 pts
  • Lossvs PSG1:3
  • Winvs Lorient2:1
  • Drawvs Lens2:2
  • Drawvs Nice1:1
  • Lossvs Rennes2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%
Toulouse6 pts
  • Drawvs Monaco2:2
  • Winvs Le Havre3:2
  • Drawvs Lorient2:2
  • Lossvs Lille0:1
  • Drawvs Brest2:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factLe Mans lost 1:3 at PSG last Saturday. Before that they beat Lorient 2:1 at home, drew 2:2 at home with Lens, drew 1:1 at Nice and lost 2:3 at Rennes: goals at both ends in all five. On the same Saturday Toulouse came back from 0:2 at half-time to draw 2:2 at Monaco (The Stats Zone). Before that they beat Le Havre 3:2 at home, drew 2:2 at Lorient and at Brest, and lost 0:1 at home to Lille. Over ten games both teams scored in 8 of Le Mans' matches and in 8 of Toulouse's; Le Mans failed to score in none, Toulouse kept no clean sheet. Understat's numbers for this league season: Le Mans create 1.67 expected goals a game and allow 2.45, Toulouse create 2.00 and allow 1.59. Both have six points from six games, and Toulouse have 4.5 points fewer than their expected points.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Le Mans vs Toulouse team news

Le Mans reportedly without Bourabaa, Sidibé back; no new injuries at Toulouse.

Le Mans
  • OutAdil BourabaaAnkle injury, reported by one preview
  • DoubtColasReported by one preview
  • FormDjibril SidibéBack after suspension
Toulouse
  • DoubtRasmus NicolaisenCalf injury
TacticsThe Stats Zone reports that Adil Bourabaa (ankle) is out for Le Mans and that Colas is a doubt. We found no second source for either, so treat both as reports. footballpredictions.com says Djibril Sidibé is back after a suspension. Both previews that cover Toulouse report no new injury concerns; The Stats Zone lists Rasmus Nicolaisen (calf) as a doubt. Its expected Le Mans XI: Kocik; Boisse, Yohou, Voyer; Lauray; Bamba, Bretelle, Vercruysse, Calodat; Diallo, Mafouta. Its Toulouse XI: Restes; Messali, Koumbassa, McKenzie, Tape; Casseres, Vossah; Tengstedt, Jørgensen, Azizi; Russell-Rowe. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3

Who do others back in Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Three previews pick both teams to score; two of them see 2:2.

SourcePick
footballpredictions.com2:2, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals
footballpredictions.aiDraw 2:2, both teams to score
Kickoff.co.uk (model)Toulouse 44%, two or more goals 79%
Our positionThe Stats Zone, the one preview with written analysis, also picks both teams to score. With footballpredictions.com and footballpredictions.ai, that makes three of three on our market, and both sites name 2:2, our main score. The Kickoff.co.uk model has Toulouse as favourites and expects at least two goals. We do not pick a winner: Toulouse have won once in five games and Le Mans once in six league games.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Le Mans vs Toulouse predicted score

An open game between two defences that concede.

Toulouse should have more of the ball: 13.7 shots a game over their last ten against 10.8 for Le Mans. But Le Mans have scored in every one of those ten games, and Toulouse allow 14.2 shots a game and conceded in all ten. At home this season Le Mans drew 2:2 with Lens and beat Lorient 2:1, both with goals at each end. 2:2 is our main score and 1:1 the quieter version. The bet wins with any score where both sides score (1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 and up) and loses with 1:0, 0:1, 2:0, 0:2 or 0:0.

Predicted score
2:2
Alternative
1:1
Your score
LEM2
TFC2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Le Mans vs Toulouse pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Every number on this game points to goals at both ends. Le Mans scored in all of their last ten games but allow 2.45 expected goals a game in Ligue 1, and Toulouse have not kept a clean sheet in ten. Both played on 10 October and their next league games are on 24 and 25 October, so there is no reason to rotate. We expect an open game and a score like 2:2.

Our probability64–68%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.54
Main scenario2:2
Wins with
1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with
1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
Our scenario
2:2alternative 1:1

What would change our mind A Le Mans team sheet without both forwards, Diallo and Mafouta: then we would drop the pick.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Le Mans win2.9034.5%
Draw3.4728.8%
Toulouse win2.3043.5%
Both teams to score1.5464.9%

Odds snapshot 16 OCT 07:33 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why one side could stay on zero.

  1. Toulouse failed to score twice in their last ten games, including the 0:1 at home to Lille.
  2. Le Mans took 11.0 shots a game over their last five and faced 15.4: if Toulouse keep the ball, Le Mans may create little.
  3. Only The Stats Zone wrote a full preview; the other picks come from model sites, not reporters.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Both teams to score at 1.54, a single for 1 unit. Neither side wins often enough to back the result, so we back goals at both ends.

Market
Both teams to score
Odds
1.54
Published
16 OCT 07:45
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.54
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:2Bet at 1.54
Happened
0:3Toulouse win
Lost

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.