Single: Medvedev vs Paul — odds 1.43

Why this betA single on Daniil Medvedev to beat Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals. Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches and holds serve in 91% of his service games over that run, and he has beaten Paul in all three of their meetings on hard courts, twice losing only three games in the match.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 16 OCT · 11:00 UK

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul

Daniil Medvedev win1.43Won

Why this pickIn Shanghai Medvedev beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Dalibor Svrcina and Stefanos Tsitsipas, the last one 6:4, 7:5. Over his last ten matches he wins 80.5% of the points behind his first serve and saved 77.8% of the break points he faced; Paul holds 82.4% of his service games. Head to head Medvedev leads 4-1, and the only Paul win came on clay. The risk: Paul has not dropped a set this week, and Medvedev retired in the Beijing semi-final on 5 October, although he has played three matches since. We expect 6:4, 7:6; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 66–68%

Form · Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches; Paul has not dropped a set in Shanghai

Daniil MedvedevLast 10: 9-1

Won v Wong C. 6-3, 6(2)-7, 6-3
Won v Safiullin R. 7-5, 6-4
Won v Rublev A. 7-5, 6-4
Won v Carreno-Busta P. 6-4, 6-2
Won v Struff J. 6-4, 6-3
Won v Cerundolo F. 7-6(4), 6-3
Lost to Djokovic N. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
Won v Struff J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
Won v Svrcina D. 6-2, 6-3
Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-4, 7-5

Tommy PaulLast 10: 7-3

Won v Zverev A. 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4
Lost to Cobolli F. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won v Wong C. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
Won v Bublik A. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Lost to Alcaraz C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
Lost to Tabilo A. 6-1, 6-2
Won v Vallejo A. 6-2, 6-2
Won v Vacherot V. 6-4, 6-2
Won v Bergs Z. 7-6(5), 6-4

Stats comparison

Stat	Medvedev	Paul
On hard courts	34-10	24-12
Last 10 matches	9-1	7-3
Service games held	91.0%	82.4%
Return games won	25.0%	26.7%

Our scenario

6:4, 7:6 2:0 in sets

Medvedev in two sets. Medvedev wins 80.5% of the points behind his first serve and has saved 77.8% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches. Paul converts 52.0% of his break points, so a set can slip if he gets looks on the Medvedev second serve. We expect 6:4, 7:6. A 2:1 Medvedev win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01The Elo model is less sure than the market: it gives Medvedev 59.1%, against about 66% in the odds.
02Paul has not dropped a set in Shanghai and converts 52.0% of his break points over his last ten matches.
03Medvedev retired in the Beijing semi-final eleven days ago. He has played three matches since without a problem, but if it comes back, the bet is lost.

Medvedev this weekHe beat Jan-Lennard Struff 4:6, 6:4, 6:3, Dalibor Svrcina 6:2, 6:3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6:4, 7:5. Before Shanghai he reached the Beijing semi-finals, where he retired against Novak Djokovic at 5:7, 3:5 on 5 October.

Full match analysis