ENES
Join the club
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard

Daniil MedvedevvsTommy Paul prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026

Date
16 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Third match on court (not before 6:00 PM), not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:3 1:6 6:3
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Medvedev vs Paul?

Daniil Medvedev plays Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals on Friday. We back Medvedev to win the match, most likely 6:4, 7:6.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
66–68%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Daniil Medvedev win
Odds at publish
1.44
Set by set
6:4, 7:6
Not before (UK)
11:00

Medvedev vs Paul at a glance

MatchDaniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
TournamentATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Quarter-final
SurfaceHard
Start16 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local
CourtStadium Court · Third match on court (not before 6:00 PM)
Our pickDaniil Medvedev win · 1.44 · bet
Our estimate66–68%
Predicted score2:0 (6:4, 7:6)
Main reasonMedvedev has won nine of his last ten matches and holds serve in 91.0% of his service games over that run, with 12.7 aces a match.
No. 02 · Form

Medvedev vs Paul: recent form

Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches; Paul has not dropped a set in Shanghai

Daniil MedvedevLast 10: 9-1
  1. Won v Wong C. 6-3, 6(2)-7, 6-3
  2. Won v Safiullin R. 7-5, 6-4
  3. Won v Rublev A. 7-5, 6-4
  4. Won v Carreno-Busta P. 6-4, 6-2
  5. Won v Struff J. 6-4, 6-3
  6. Won v Cerundolo F. 7-6(4), 6-3
  7. Lost to Djokovic N. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
  8. Won v Struff J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
  9. Won v Svrcina D. 6-2, 6-3
  10. Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-4, 7-5
Tommy PaulLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Zverev A. 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4
  2. Lost to Cobolli F. 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
  3. Won v Wong C. 6(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
  4. Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
  5. Won v Bublik A. 6-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
  6. Lost to Alcaraz C. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
  7. Lost to Tabilo A. 6-1, 6-2
  8. Won v Vallejo A. 6-2, 6-2
  9. Won v Vacherot V. 6-4, 6-2
  10. Won v Bergs Z. 7-6(5), 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Daniil Medvedev
Won vTsitsipas S.Shanghai · 14.10.266-4, 7-5
Won vSvrcina D.Shanghai · 12.10.266-2, 6-3
Won vStruff J.Shanghai · 10.10.264-6, 6-4, 6-3
Lost toDjokovic N.Beijing · 05.10.267-5, 5-3 ret.
Won vCerundolo F.Beijing · 04.10.267-6(4), 6-3
Won vStruff J.Beijing · 03.10.266-4, 6-3
Won vCarreno-Busta P.Beijing · 02.10.266-4, 6-2
Won vRublev A.Hangzhou · 29.09.267-5, 6-4
Won vSafiullin R.Hangzhou · 28.09.267-5, 6-4
Won vWong C.Hangzhou · 27.09.266-3, 6(2)-7, 6-3
Tommy Paul
Won vBergs Z.Shanghai · 14.10.267-6(5), 6-4
Won vVacherot V.Shanghai · 12.10.266-4, 6-2
Won vVallejo A.Shanghai · 10.10.266-2, 6-2
Lost toTabilo A.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 30.09.266-1, 6-2
Lost toAlcaraz C.US Open · 06.09.266-4, 6-3, 6-4
Won vBublik A.US Open · 04.09.266-4, 3-6, 6(4)-7, 6-1, 6-3
Won vPrizmic D.US Open · 03.09.266-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4
Won vWong C.US Open · 30.08.266(3)-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3
Lost toCobolli F.Cincinnati · 20.08.262-6, 6-3, 6-4
Won vZverev A.Cincinnati · 19.08.264-6, 7-6(6), 6-4
Medvedev this weekHe beat Jan-Lennard Struff 4:6, 6:4, 6:3, Dalibor Svrcina 6:2, 6:3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6:4, 7:5. Before Shanghai he reached the Beijing semi-finals, where he retired against Novak Djokovic at 5:7, 3:5 on 5 October.
No. 03 · Context

A sixth meeting, for a place in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals

Paul this week
He beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6:2, 6:2, Valentin Vacherot 6:4, 6:2 and Zizou Bergs 7:6(5), 6:4 without dropping a set. Before Shanghai he lost in the first round in Tokyo to Alejandro Tabilo.
Season and surface
Medvedev is 46-17 this season and 34-10 on hard courts. Paul is 43-19 and 24-12 on hard courts.
Head to head
Medvedev leads 4-1. All three hard-court meetings went his way; Paul’s only win came on clay in Rome in 2024.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Medvedev holds 91.0% of his service games in his last ten matches, Paul 82.4%

StatMedvedevPaul
Season record46-17 (better)43-19
On hard courts34-10 (better)24-12
Last 10 matches9-1 (better)7-3
As favourite45-15 (better)40-14
As underdog1-23-5 (better)
StatMedvedevPaul
Matches counted10 (9-1)10 (7-3)
Aces per match12.7 (better)7.4
Double faults per match3.1 (better)2.1
1st serve in63.7% (better)59.8%
1st serve points won80.5% (better)73.9%
2nd serve points won49.0%53.2% (better)
Service games held91.0% (better)82.4%
Break points saved77.8% (better)62.1%
StatMedvedevPaul
Return points won39.9% (better)38.7%
Return games won25.0%26.7% (better)
Break points converted32.5%52.0% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 15 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats (Tennis Abstract).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head5 meetings

Medvedev leads 4-1

2025MedvedevIndian Wells Masters · Hard · R166-4 6-0
2024PaulRome Masters · Clay · R166-1 6-4
2024MedvedevIndian Wells Masters · Hard · SF1-6 7-6(3) 6-2
2023MedvedevBeijing · Hard · R326-2 6-1
2021MedvedevRoland Garros · Clay · R643-6 6-1 6-4 6-3
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Medvedev vs Paul?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Tennis Abstract EloMedvedev, 59.1%Same side
Our position1 of 1 back Medvedev. We are on Medvedev’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Medvedev vs Paul predicted score

Medvedev in two sets

Medvedev wins 80.5% of the points behind his first serve and has saved 77.8% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches. Paul converts 52.0% of his break points, so a set can slip if he gets looks on the Medvedev second serve. We expect 6:4, 7:6. A 2:1 Medvedev win still wins the bet.

Predicted score
2:0
6:4, 7:6
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 4:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Medvedev vs Paul pick: Daniil Medvedev win

Medvedev to win the match

Why we back it

Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches and holds serve in 91.0% of his service games over that run, with 12.7 aces a match. Paul holds 82.4%. On hard courts Medvedev has beaten Paul three times out of three: 6:2, 6:1 in Beijing in 2023, 1:6, 7:6(3), 6:2 in the Indian Wells semi-final in 2024 and 6:4, 6:0 in Indian Wells in 2025. In Shanghai Medvedev beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Dalibor Svrcina and Stefanos Tsitsipas, the last one 6:4, 7:5 on Wednesday. We expect 6:4, 7:6; a win in three sets also wins the bet.

Our probability66–68%
Our pickDaniil Medvedev win
Odds1.44
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:4, 7:62:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Any news about Medvedev’s fitness before the match, or his price moving above 1.45.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. The Elo model is less sure than the market: it gives Medvedev 59.1%, against about 66% in the odds.
  2. Paul has not dropped a set in Shanghai and converts 52.0% of his break points over his last ten matches.
  3. Medvedev retired in the Beijing semi-final eleven days ago. He has played three matches since without a problem, but if it comes back, the bet is lost.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Medvedev to win the match: he has won nine of his last ten and beat Paul in all three of their meetings on hard courts.

Bet
Daniil Medvedev win
Odds at publish
1.44 · 16 OCT 05:22 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly