Single: Elversberg vs Augsburg

Why this betA single on both teams to score in Elversberg against Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Both teams scored in seven of each side's last ten games, and each kept only two clean sheets in that run. Understat has Elversberg allowing 2.21 expected goals a game this season and Augsburg 2.62. The 1X2 prices split the teams almost evenly, so we stay off the result and back goals at both ends.

Leg 1 · Football · Germany · Bundesliga · 17 OCT · 14:30 UK

Elversberg vs Augsburg

Both teams to score1.39Won

Why this pickAugsburg have scored in each of their last five league games: 2:2 with Bayern, 2:3 at Werder, 2:2 with Leverkusen, 4:1 at Frankfurt and 3:0 against Schalke. Elversberg conceded in four of their last five, including 4:3 at Gladbach and 3:2 against Leverkusen, and allowed 21.2 shots a game in that run. Sports Mole and footballpredictions.com both pick 2:2, and the Kickoff.co.uk model gives both teams to score 68%. The risk: Elversberg failed to score in two of their last three games.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 2:2
Our estimate · Both teams to score: 68–71%

Form · Elversberg 7 from 15. Augsburg 8 from 15.

Elversberg7 pts

Lossvs Union Berlin0:1
Drawvs Schalke0:0
Lossvs Bayern1:2
Winvs Gladbach4:3
Winvs Leverkusen3:2

: 1.60
: 1.60
: 60%
: 60%

Augsburg8 pts

Drawvs Bayern2:2
Lossvs Werder2:3
Drawvs Leverkusen2:2
Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
Winvs Schalke3:0

: 2.60
: 1.60
: 100%
: 80%

Lineups · Expected

Elversberg
DoubtOnyekaFoot injury; sources disagree
DoubtSeifertAnkle injury; sources disagree

Augsburg
OutBanksRuled out, reported by two previews
OutJuma BahReported by one preview
DoubtClaude-MauriceMuscle injury, reported by one preview

What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3

Our positionAll three sources point to both teams scoring: Sports Mole and footballpredictions.com with 2:2, our main score, and the Kickoff.co.uk model with 68% for our market and 1:1 as its most likely score. Nobody picks a clear winner, which matches the prices.

Scenario & score

Two open teams, chances at both ends. Neither side controls games: over their last five Elversberg took 9.6 shots a game and allowed 21.2, Augsburg took 13.6 and allowed 22.6. Augsburg scored in each of their last five league games, and Elversberg conceded in four of their last five. 2:2 is our main score and 1:1 the quieter version. The bet wins with any score where both sides score (1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 and up) and loses with 1:0, 0:1, 2:0, 0:2 or 0:0.

Arguing against ourselves

01Elversberg failed to score in two of their last three games: 0:0 at Schalke and 0:1 at Union Berlin.
02The price asks for about 71% and our range is 68 to 71%, so the margin is thin.
03Elversberg's team news is unclear; the two previews disagree.

Key factElversberg lost 0:1 at Union Berlin on 10 October after a 0:0 at Schalke and a 1:2 home defeat to Bayern; before that they won 4:3 at Gladbach and 3:2 at home against Leverkusen. Augsburg drew 2:2 with Bayern at home on 10 October, lost 2:3 at Werder, drew 2:2 with Leverkusen, won 4:1 at Eintracht Frankfurt and beat Schalke 3:0. Over ten games both teams scored in seven of Elversberg's matches and in seven of Augsburg's; each kept two clean sheets, Elversberg failed to score twice and Augsburg once. Over their last five, Elversberg allowed 21.2 shots a game and Augsburg 22.6. Understat, this Bundesliga season: Elversberg 1.31 expected goals for and 2.21 against per game, Augsburg 2.10 and 2.62. Elversberg are ninth with 7 points, Augsburg sixth with 8 (Sports Mole).

Full match analysis