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Football · Germany · Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Spiesen-Elversberg

ElversbergvsAugsburg SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg · prediction

Score
4:3
Date
17 OCT
City
Spiesen-Elversberg
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Elversberg vs Augsburg?

Our Elversberg vs Augsburg prediction is both teams to score, most likely 2:2, at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde on Saturday afternoon. Both teams scored in seven of each side's last ten games, and each kept only two clean sheets in that run. Understat has Elversberg allowing 2.21 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga and Augsburg 2.62. The 1X2 prices split the teams almost evenly, so we stay off the result and back goals at both ends.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:2
Our estimate
68–71%
Both teams to score · odds 1.39Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Both teams to score
Price now
1.39

Elversberg vs Augsburg at a glance

MatchSV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga · Matchday 6
Kick-off17 OCT · 14:30 UK · 15:30 Spiesen-Elversberg
VenueURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Our pickBoth teams to score · 1.39 · bet
Our estimate68–71%
Predicted score2:2
Main reasonBoth teams play open football and concede a lot: more than two expected goals against per game each.
No. 04 · Form

Elversberg vs Augsburg: recent form

Elversberg 7 from 15. Augsburg 8 from 15.

Elversberg7 pts
  • Lossvs Union Berlin0:1
  • Drawvs Schalke0:0
  • Lossvs Bayern1:2
  • Winvs Gladbach4:3
  • Winvs Leverkusen3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Augsburg8 pts
  • Drawvs Bayern2:2
  • Lossvs Werder2:3
  • Drawvs Leverkusen2:2
  • Winvs Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
  • Winvs Schalke3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factElversberg lost 0:1 at Union Berlin on 10 October after a 0:0 at Schalke and a 1:2 home defeat to Bayern; before that they won 4:3 at Gladbach and 3:2 at home against Leverkusen. Augsburg drew 2:2 with Bayern at home on 10 October, lost 2:3 at Werder, drew 2:2 with Leverkusen, won 4:1 at Eintracht Frankfurt and beat Schalke 3:0. Over ten games both teams scored in seven of Elversberg's matches and in seven of Augsburg's; each kept two clean sheets, Elversberg failed to score twice and Augsburg once. Over their last five, Elversberg allowed 21.2 shots a game and Augsburg 22.6. Understat, this Bundesliga season: Elversberg 1.31 expected goals for and 2.21 against per game, Augsburg 2.10 and 2.62. Elversberg are ninth with 7 points, Augsburg sixth with 8 (Sports Mole).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Elversberg vs Augsburg team news

Augsburg without Banks; Elversberg's team news is unclear.

Elversberg
  • DoubtOnyekaFoot injury; sources disagree
  • DoubtSeifertAnkle injury; sources disagree
Augsburg
  • OutBanksRuled out, reported by two previews
  • OutJuma BahReported by one preview
  • DoubtClaude-MauriceMuscle injury, reported by one preview
TacticsSports Mole lists Onyeka (foot) and Seifert (ankle) as out for Elversberg, while footballpredictions.com reports no new injuries, so we mark both as doubts. For Augsburg, both previews say Banks is out. Sports Mole also lists Juma Bah as out and Claude-Maurice (muscle) as a doubt; footballpredictions.com mentions problems for Mounié and Breithaupt. None of those has a second source. Sports Mole's expected Elversberg XI: Kristof; Gyamerah, Pinckert, Rohr, Günther; Keidel, Poreba; Petkov, Darvich, Krattenmacher; Mokwa. Its Augsburg XI: Dahmen; Gouweleeuw, Matsima, Brackelmann; Wolf, Massengo, Rieder, Behrens; Fellhauer, Ibrahimović; Gregoritsch. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Elversberg vs Augsburg?

Three of three expect goals at both ends; two see 2:2.

SourcePick
Sports Mole2:2
footballpredictions.com2:2, over 2.5 goals
Kickoff.co.uk (model)Both teams to score 68%, most likely score 1:1
Our positionAll three sources point to both teams scoring: Sports Mole and footballpredictions.com with 2:2, our main score, and the Kickoff.co.uk model with 68% for our market and 1:1 as its most likely score. Nobody picks a clear winner, which matches the prices.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Elversberg vs Augsburg predicted score

Two open teams, chances at both ends.

Neither side controls games: over their last five Elversberg took 9.6 shots a game and allowed 21.2, Augsburg took 13.6 and allowed 22.6. Augsburg scored in each of their last five league games, and Elversberg conceded in four of their last five. 2:2 is our main score and 1:1 the quieter version. The bet wins with any score where both sides score (1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 and up) and loses with 1:0, 0:1, 2:0, 0:2 or 0:0.

Predicted score
2:2
Alternative
1:1
Your score
SVE2
FCA2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Elversberg vs Augsburg pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Both teams play open football and concede a lot: more than two expected goals against per game each. Augsburg have scored in every one of their last five league games, and Elversberg conceded three to Gladbach and two to Leverkusen. Both rested for a week and play their next league games on 24 October, with no European football in between. We expect a game like 2:2.

Our probability68–71%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.39
Main scenario2:2
Wins with
1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with
1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
Our scenario
2:2alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An Elversberg team sheet without both Mokwa and Krattenmacher: then we would drop the pick.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Elversberg win2.4241.3%
Draw3.7926.4%
Augsburg win2.6038.5%
Both teams to score1.3971.9%

Odds snapshot 17 OCT 08:17 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why one side could stay on zero.

  1. Elversberg failed to score in two of their last three games: 0:0 at Schalke and 0:1 at Union Berlin.
  2. The price asks for about 71% and our range is 68 to 71%, so the margin is thin.
  3. Elversberg's team news is unclear; the two previews disagree.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Both teams to score at 1.39, a single for 1 unit. The prices see no clear winner, so we back goals at both ends.

Market
Both teams to score
Odds
1.39
Published
17 OCT 08:14
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.39
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:2Bet at 1.39
Happened
4:3Elversberg win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.