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Single · No. 103 · 17 OCTLost

Medvedev vs Jodar

  1. 01Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael JodarDaniil Medvedev win1.50 · Lost
Total odds
1.50
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
58–62%
Published 17 OCT 07:1218+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Daniil Medvedev to beat Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals. Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches and holds serve 88.8% of the time over his last ten with stats; Jodar has lost the first set in all four of his matches this week.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 17 OCT · 12:00 UK

Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Jodar

Daniil Medvedev win1.50Lost
Why this pickIn Shanghai Medvedev beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Dalibor Svrcina, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul. He serves 11.7 aces a match against 3.8 for Jodar and has saved 75.0% of the break points he faced, against 62.5%. Jodar came from a set down against Tirante, Lehecka, van de Zandschulp and Ruud and has played 12 sets in seven days; both played their quarter-finals on Friday, so each has one day of rest. The risk: the Elo rating sees this close to even, and Jodar converts 42.7% of his break points. We expect 6:4, 4:6, 6:3; a straight-sets win also counts.
Predicted score
2:1
Our estimate
58–62%

Form · Medvedev has won nine of his last ten; Jodar has come back from a set down four times in Shanghai

Daniil MedvedevLast 10: 9-1
  1. Won v Safiullin R. 7-5, 6-4
  2. Won v Rublev A. 7-5, 6-4
  3. Won v Carreno-Busta P. 6-4, 6-2
  4. Won v Struff J. 6-4, 6-3
  5. Won v Cerundolo F. 7-6(4), 6-3
  6. Lost to Djokovic N. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
  7. Won v Struff J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
  8. Won v Svrcina D. 6-2, 6-3
  9. Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-4, 7-5
  10. Won v Paul T. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Rafael JodarLast 10: 5-3
  1. Won v Tabilo A. 6-2, 6-1
  2. Lost to Cobolli F. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
  3. Lost to Yunchaokete B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-1
  4. Lost to Vallejo A. 6-1, 6-3
  5. Won v Tirante T. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
  6. Won v Lehecka J. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
  7. Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2
  8. Won v Ruud C. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3

Stats comparison

StatMedvedevJodar
On hard courts35-1033-12
Last 10 matches9-17-3
Service games held88.8%78.6%
Return games won26.9%25.2%

Our scenario

6:4, 4:6, 6:3 2:1 in sets

Medvedev in three sets. Medvedev has saved 75.0% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches, Jodar 62.5%. Jodar is the sharper finisher when he gets a look: he converts 42.7% of his break points against 31.9% for Medvedev, and he wins 52.1% of the points behind his second serve. We expect him to take a set again, then Medvedev’s serve to settle it, 6:4, 4:6, 6:3. If Jodar’s legs go after 12 sets in a week, 6:4, 7:6 is the alternative. Any Medvedev win wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01The fresh Elo rating is close to even: it gives Medvedev 52.6%, well under the 63% or so in the odds.
  2. 02Jodar has beaten Lehecka and Ruud this week and converts 42.7% of his break points.
  3. 03Medvedev lost a set 1:6 to Paul on Friday, and he retired in Beijing twelve days ago.
Medvedev this weekHe beat Jan-Lennard Struff 4:6, 6:4, 6:3, Dalibor Svrcina 6:2, 6:3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6:4, 7:5 and Tommy Paul 6:3, 1:6, 6:3 on Friday. Before Shanghai he retired against Novak Djokovic in the Beijing semi-finals at 5:7, 3:5 on 5 October, and won the Hangzhou title, beating Andrey Rublev 7:5, 6:4 in the final.
Full match analysis