Jódar, 20, lost the first set again and won again. Ruud's defeat puts him ninth for Turin
Our take The Turin place is now Jódar's to lose
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Semi-final · Hard
Daniil MedvedevvsRafael Jodar prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
17 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Third match on court (not before 7:00 PM), after Zverev v Davidovich Fokina, not before 19:00 local (12:00 UK)
Status
3:6 4:6
MED12:00 UKJODIn our bets
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Medvedev vs Jodar?
Daniil Medvedev plays Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals on Saturday. We back Medvedev to win the match, most likely in three sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 58–62%
- Our pick
- Daniil Medvedev win
- Odds at publish
- 1.50
- Set by set
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 12:00
Medvedev vs Jodar at a glance
| Match | Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Jodar |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Semi-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 17 OCT · 12:00 UK · 19:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Third match on court (not before 7:00 PM), after Zverev v Davidovich Fokina |
| Our pick | Daniil Medvedev win · 1.50 · bet |
| Our estimate | 58–62% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 4:6, 6:3) |
| Main reason | Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches, with the Hangzhou title on 29 September. |
No. 02 · Form
Medvedev vs Jodar: recent form
Medvedev has won nine of his last ten; Jodar has come back from a set down four times in Shanghai
Daniil MedvedevLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Safiullin R. 7-5, 6-4
- Won v Rublev A. 7-5, 6-4
- Won v Carreno-Busta P. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Struff J. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Cerundolo F. 7-6(4), 6-3
- Lost to Djokovic N. 7-5, 5-3 ret.
- Won v Struff J. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Svrcina D. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Tsitsipas S. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Paul T. 6-3, 1-6, 6-3
Rafael JodarLast 10: 5-3
- Won v Tabilo A. 6-2, 6-1
- Lost to Cobolli F. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3
- Lost to Yunchaokete B. 6-2, 6-1, 6-1
- Lost to Vallejo A. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tirante T. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Lehecka J. 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4
- Won v Van De Zandschulp B. 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Ruud C. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Paul T.Shanghai · 16.10.26 | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Tsitsipas S.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Svrcina D.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Struff J.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 7-5, 5-3 ret. |
| Won v | Cerundolo F.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-3 |
| Won v | Struff J.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Carreno-Busta P.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Rublev A.Hangzhou · 29.09.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Safiullin R.Hangzhou · 28.09.26 | 7-5, 6-4 |
| Won v | Ruud C.Shanghai · 16.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Van De Zandschulp B.Shanghai · 14.10.26 | 6(4)-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lehecka J.Shanghai · 12.10.26 | 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tirante T.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Vallejo A.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Yunchaokete B.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Cobolli F.Cincinnati · 19.08.26 | 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Won v | Tabilo A.Cincinnati · 17.08.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
Medvedev this weekHe beat Jan-Lennard Struff 4:6, 6:4, 6:3, Dalibor Svrcina 6:2, 6:3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6:4, 7:5 and Tommy Paul 6:3, 1:6, 6:3 on Friday. Before Shanghai he retired against Novak Djokovic in the Beijing semi-finals at 5:7, 3:5 on 5 October, and won the Hangzhou title, beating Andrey Rublev 7:5, 6:4 in the final.
No. 03 · Context
A first meeting, for a place in Sunday’s Shanghai Masters final
- Jodar this week
- He beat Thiago Agustin Tirante 4:6, 6:2, 6:3, Jiri Lehecka 4:6, 7:6(2), 6:4, Botic van de Zandschulp 6:7(4), 6:4, 6:2 and Casper Ruud 4:6, 6:4, 6:3, losing the first set every time. Before Shanghai he lost 1:6, 3:6 to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the first round in Tokyo. Last Word On Sports calls him the youngest semi-finalist in the tournament’s history.
- Season and surface
- Medvedev is 47-17 this season and 35-10 on hard courts. Jodar is 55-17 and 33-12 on hard courts on Tennis Explorer’s count.
- Head to head
- This is their first meeting.
- Rest and load
- Both played their quarter-finals on Friday, so each has one day of rest. Jodar has played 12 sets in seven days, four of them three-setters; Medvedev ten sets, with two three-setters.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Medvedev holds 88.8% of his service games in his last ten matches, Jodar 78.6%
| Stat | Medvedev | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 47-17 | 55-17 (better) |
| On hard courts | 35-10 (better) | 33-12 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 (better) | 7-3 |
| As favourite | 46-15 | 49-10 (better) |
| As underdog | 1-2 | 6-7 (better) |
| Stat | Medvedev | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches counted | 10 (9-1) | 10 (7-3) |
| Aces per match | 11.7 (better) | 3.8 |
| Double faults per match | 3.2 | 2.3 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 64.1% (better) | 63.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 79.8% (better) | 68.3% |
| 2nd serve points won | 46.8% | 52.1% (better) |
| Service games held | 88.8% (better) | 78.6% |
| Break points saved | 75.0% (better) | 62.5% |
| Stat | Medvedev | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 41.0% (better) | 39.5% |
| Return games won | 26.9% (better) | 25.2% |
| Break points converted | 31.9% | 42.7% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 16 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, to 7 October, before Shanghai (Tennis Abstract).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Medvedev vs Jodar?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Last Word On Tennis | Medvedev in three sets | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Medvedev, 57.9% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Medvedev. We are on Medvedev’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Medvedev vs Jodar predicted score
Medvedev in three sets
Medvedev has saved 75.0% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches, Jodar 62.5%. Jodar is the sharper finisher when he gets a look: he converts 42.7% of his break points against 31.9% for Medvedev, and he wins 52.1% of the points behind his second serve. We expect him to take a set again, then Medvedev’s serve to settle it, 6:4, 4:6, 6:3. If Jodar’s legs go after 12 sets in a week, 6:4, 7:6 is the alternative. Any Medvedev win wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:0
- 6:4, 7:6
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Medvedev vs Jodar pick: Daniil Medvedev win
Medvedev to win the match
Why we back it
Medvedev has won nine of his last ten matches, with the Hangzhou title on 29 September. Over his last ten matches with stats he holds serve 88.8% of the time, serves 11.7 aces a match and wins 79.8% of the points behind his first serve; Jodar holds 78.6% and serves 3.8 aces. Jodar has come from a set down in every round this week, against Thiago Agustin Tirante, Jiri Lehecka, Botic van de Zandschulp and Casper Ruud. Against a server like Medvedev that is a harder hole to climb out of. We expect three sets, 6:4, 4:6, 6:3; a straight-sets win also wins the bet.
Our probability58–62%
Our pickDaniil Medvedev win
Odds1.50
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 7:62:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Medvedev’s or Jodar’s fitness before the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The fresh Elo rating is close to even: it gives Medvedev 52.6%, well under the 63% or so in the odds.
- Jodar has beaten Lehecka and Ruud this week and converts 42.7% of his break points.
- Medvedev lost a set 1:6 to Paul on Friday, and he retired in Beijing twelve days ago.
No. 10 · Our call
Bet
We back Medvedev to win the semi-final: he has won nine of his last ten and serves far bigger than Jodar, who has lost the first set in all four of his Shanghai matches.
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