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Single · No. 102 · 17 OCTLost

Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina

  1. 01Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAlexander Zverev win1.25 · Lost
Total odds
1.25
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
75–78%
Published 17 OCT 07:12
Odds: average of 34 popular bookmakers, 17 OCT 07:1618+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Alexander Zverev to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals. Zverev holds serve in 93.8% of his service games over his last ten matches, did not drop serve against Alex de Minaur in the quarter-final and leads the head to head 6-1.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · 17 OCT · 09:30 UK

Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alexander Zverev win1.25Lost
Why this pickZverev beat Wu Yibing, Quentin Halys, Alexander Bublik and Alex de Minaur this week, the last one 6:4, 6:4 in 78 minutes with all five break points saved. He serves 11.1 aces a match and wins 79.1% of the points behind his first serve; Davidovich Fokina holds 87.0% of his service games. On hard courts Zverev has won four of their five meetings. The risk: his right ankle bothered him in three of his four matches this week, and Davidovich Fokina is fresh after his quarter-final opponent retired at 4:1. We expect 6:4, 7:5; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
75–78%

Form · Both men have won four in a row in Shanghai; Zverev did not face a break in his quarter-final

Alexander ZverevLast 10: 6-1
  1. Won v Norrie C. 7-6(1), 6-4
  2. Won v Shang J. 6-0, 6-3
  3. Lost to Djokovic N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
  4. Won v Wu Y. 6-4, 7-6(4)
  5. Won v Halys Q. 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3
  6. Won v Bublik A. 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1)
  7. Won v De Minaur A. 6-4, 6-4
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaLast 10: 8-2
  1. Lost to Molcan A. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2
  2. Won v Cerundolo J. 6-4, 6-4
  3. Won v Muller A. 6-1, 7-5
  4. Won v Basilashvili N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
  5. Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 7-6(7)
  6. Lost to Berrettini M. 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4
  7. Won v Brooksby J. 6-1, 6-3
  8. Won v Tiafoe F. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6)
  9. Won v Hurkacz H. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)
  10. Won v Gea A. 4-1 ret.

Stats comparison

StatZverevDavidovich Fokina
On hard courts31-917-8
Last 10 matches8-28-2
Service games held93.8%87.0%
Return games won17.3%20.8%

Our scenario

6:4, 7:5 2:0 in sets

Zverev in two sets. Zverev wins 79.1% of the points behind his first serve and has saved 72.4% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches. Davidovich Fokina returns better on paper: he wins 20.8% of his return games against 17.3% for Zverev. We expect one break a set for Zverev, 6:4, 7:5. The alternative is a set for Davidovich Fokina on a tie-break: he won deciding tie-breaks against Tiafoe and Hurkacz this week. A 2:1 Zverev win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Zverev said his right ankle was acting up again against Bublik on Tuesday, and that it bothered him in his first two matches too.
  2. 02Davidovich Fokina is fresh after five games on Thursday and has won three of his last ten matches as the underdog, including the Chengdu final.
  3. 03Zverev has played eight sets in seven days, with two three-setters, both with tie-breaks.
Zverev this weekHe beat Wu Yibing 6:4, 7:6(4), Quentin Halys 6:4, 6:7(8), 6:3, Alexander Bublik 7:6(6), 4:6, 7:6(1) and Alex de Minaur 6:4, 6:4. Before Shanghai he lost to Novak Djokovic in the Beijing quarter-finals on 4 October. The ATP says he is already sure to finish the year as world number one.
Full match analysis