Alexander ZverevvsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Who will win Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina?
Alexander Zverev plays Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai Masters semi-finals on Saturday. We back Zverev to win the match, most likely 6:4, 7:5.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 75–78%
- Our pick
- Alexander Zverev win
- Odds at publish
- 1.26
- Set by set
- 6:4, 7:5
- Not before (UK)
- 09:30
Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina at a glance
| Match | Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Semi-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 17 OCT · 09:30 UK · 16:30 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Second match on court (not before 4:30 PM), after the doubles semi-final |
| Our pick | Alexander Zverev win · 1.26 · bet |
| Our estimate | 75–78% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 7:5) |
| Main reason | Zverev beat Alex de Minaur 6:4, 6:4 in 78 minutes on Thursday, won 80% of the points behind his first serve and saved all five break points he faced. |
Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina: recent form
Both men have won four in a row in Shanghai; Zverev did not face a break in his quarter-final
- Won v Norrie C. 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Shang J. 6-0, 6-3
- Lost to Djokovic N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Wu Y. 6-4, 7-6(4)
- Won v Halys Q. 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3
- Won v Bublik A. 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1)
- Won v De Minaur A. 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Molcan A. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Muller A. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Basilashvili N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Lost to Berrettini M. 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Brooksby J. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tiafoe F. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6)
- Won v Hurkacz H. 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6)
- Won v Gea A. 4-1 ret.
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | De Minaur A.Shanghai · 15.10.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Bublik A.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1) |
| Won v | Halys Q.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3 |
| Won v | Wu Y.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Shang J.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-0, 6-3 |
| Won v | Norrie C.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Gea A.Shanghai · 15.10.26 | 4-1 ret. |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Tiafoe F.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Brooksby J.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Berrettini M.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Basilashvili N.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Muller A.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Molcan A.Umag · 16.07.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
An eighth meeting, for a place in the Shanghai Masters final
- Davidovich Fokina this week
- He beat Jenson Brooksby 6:1, 6:3, Frances Tiafoe 7:6(4), 4:6, 7:6(6) and Hubert Hurkacz 1:6, 6:3, 7:6(6). Arthur Gea retired at 4:1 in the first set of their quarter-final, so he played only five games on Thursday. He won the Chengdu title on 29 September, then lost in the first round in Tokyo to Matteo Berrettini.
- Season and surface
- Zverev is 62-15 this season and 31-9 on hard courts; as the favourite he is 61-9. Davidovich Fokina is 31-16 and 17-8 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Zverev leads 6-1. On hard courts he won in Paris in 2025 (6:2, 6:4), Beijing in 2023, Cologne in 2020 and at the 2020 US Open; Davidovich Fokina won in Canada in 2023, 6:1, 6:2.
- Rest and load
- Both played their quarter-finals on Thursday and had Friday off. Zverev has played eight sets in seven days, with two three-setters; Davidovich Fokina seven sets, also with two three-setters.
Zverev holds 93.8% of his service games in his last ten matches, Davidovich Fokina 87.0%
| Stat | Zverev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 62-15 (better) | 31-16 |
| On hard courts | 31-9 (better) | 17-8 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| As favourite | 61-9 (better) | 26-6 |
| As underdog | 1-6 | 4-10 (better) |
| Stat | Zverev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches counted | 10 (8-2) | 10 (8-2) |
| Aces per match | 11.1 (better) | 5.7 |
| Double faults per match | 1.7 | 1.3 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 74.3% (better) | 67.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 79.1% (better) | 72.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 57.8% | 58.2% (better) |
| Service games held | 93.8% (better) | 87.0% |
| Break points saved | 72.4% (better) | 67.3% |
| Stat | Zverev | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 34.3% | 35.8% (better) |
| Return games won | 17.3% | 20.8% (better) |
| Break points converted | 40.7% | 47.2% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 16 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, to 7 October, before Shanghai (Tennis Abstract).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
Zverev leads 6-1
| 2025 | ZverevParis Masters · Hard · R16 | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025 | ZverevMadrid Masters · Clay · R32 | 2-6 7-6(3) 7-6(0) |
| 2023 | ZverevBeijing · Hard · R16 | 6-7(4) 6-2 6-1 |
| 2023 | Davidovich FokinaCanada Masters · Hard · R32 | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2021 | ZverevRoland Garros · Clay · QF | 6-4 6-1 6-1 |
| 2020 | ZverevCologne 1 · Hard · SF | 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2020 | ZverevUS Open · Hard · R16 | 6-2 6-2 6-1 |
Who do others back in Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Zverev, 77% | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis | Zverev in two sets | Same side |
| Tennisnerd | Zverev in three sets | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Zverev, 74.8% | Same side |
Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina predicted score
Zverev in two sets
Zverev wins 79.1% of the points behind his first serve and has saved 72.4% of the break points he faced in his last ten matches. Davidovich Fokina returns better on paper: he wins 20.8% of his return games against 17.3% for Zverev. We expect one break a set for Zverev, 6:4, 7:5. The alternative is a set for Davidovich Fokina on a tie-break: he won deciding tie-breaks against Tiafoe and Hurkacz this week. A 2:1 Zverev win still wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 7:5
- Alternative
- 2:1
Our Zverev vs Davidovich Fokina pick: Alexander Zverev win
Zverev to win the match
Zverev beat Alex de Minaur 6:4, 6:4 in 78 minutes on Thursday, won 80% of the points behind his first serve and saved all five break points he faced. Over his last ten matches with stats he holds serve 93.8% of the time and serves 11.1 aces a match; Davidovich Fokina holds 87.0%. Head to head it is 6-1 Zverev, and on hard courts Davidovich Fokina has beaten him once in five meetings, in Canada in 2023. We expect 6:4, 7:5; a win in three sets also wins the bet.
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 7:52:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Zverev’s ankle before the match, such as a medical comment or a missed practice.
What could beat our pick?
- Zverev said his right ankle was acting up again against Bublik on Tuesday, and that it bothered him in his first two matches too.
- Davidovich Fokina is fresh after five games on Thursday and has won three of his last ten matches as the underdog, including the Chengdu final.
- Zverev has played eight sets in seven days, with two three-setters, both with tie-breaks.
Bet
We back Zverev to win the semi-final: he holds serve in 93.8% of his service games over his last ten matches and leads the head to head 6-1.