Single · No. 111 · 18 OCTWon
Fiorentina vs Como
- 01Fiorentina vs ComoBoth teams to score1.55 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.55
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.55 units
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
Published 18 OCT 06:22
Odds: average of 10 popular bookmakers, 18 OCT 06:2518+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 10 popular bookmakers, 18 OCT 06:2518+Play responsibly
Why this betA one-unit single on both teams to score in Fiorentina against Como in Serie A. Fiorentina are leaking goals but still create chances, and Como take almost twenty shots a game. The 1X2 prices make Como only slight favourites, so we stay off the result and back a goal at each end; our main score is 1:2.
Leg 1 · Football · Italy · Serie A · 18 OCT · 14:00 UK
Fiorentina vs Como
Both teams to score1.55Won
Why this pickBoth teams scored in six of Fiorentina's last ten games and seven of Como's, and each side kept only two clean sheets in that run, which meets our rule for this market. Fiorentina have conceded 14 goals in six league games and allow 1.83 expected goals a game, but create 1.41; Como create 2.23 and allow 1.50 (Understat). The Stats Zone also tips both teams to score. The risk: Como failed to score in two of their last four league games, play Manchester United on Tuesday and are reported without Moise Kean.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate · Both teams to score
- 64–68%
Form · Fiorentina 7 from 15. Como 7 from 15.
Fiorentina7 pts
- Lossvs Genoa1:2
- Drawvs Napoli1:1
- Winvs Pisa3:0
- Winvs Venezia4:2
- Lossvs Torino1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Como7 pts
- Lossvs Feyenoord2:3
- Drawvs Roma0:0
- Lossvs Frosinone0:2
- Winvs Parma2:1
- Winvs RB Leipzig4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Fiorentina
- OutFabiano ParisiInjured, reported by one preview
- DoubtArthur AttaFitness doubt, reported by one preview
- Como
- OutMoise KeanInjured on international duty, reported by one preview
- DoubtAssane DiaoKnock against Feyenoord, reported by one preview
Scenario & score
An open game with a goal at each end. Como take almost 20 shots a game and Fiorentina have not kept a clean sheet in the league this season, so we expect Como to score. Fiorentina scored in eight of their last ten and hit the target six times a game over the last five, so we expect them to answer. Our main score is 1:2, the cautious one 1:1. The bet wins with any score where both teams score (1:1, 1:2, 2:2 and so on) and loses with 0:0 or any clean sheet, for example 0:1 after a rotated Como side.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Como failed to score in two of their last four league games, 0:0 with Roma and 0:2 at Frosinone.
- 02Como play Manchester United on Tuesday and may rest attackers, with Kean already out.
- 03The price of 1.55 needs about 65% to break even, so the margin for error is small; it is a one-unit single.
Key factFiorentina lost 1:2 at Genoa on 10 October after a 1:1 with Napoli, a 3:0 cup win over Pisa, a 4:2 at Venezia and a 1:2 home defeat to Torino. They have four points from six league games, 7:14 on goals, and Understat has them about three points below their expected points: they play better than their table. Como lost 2:3 at Feyenoord on Wednesday, drew 0:0 with Roma, lost 0:2 at Frosinone, beat Parma 2:1 and beat RB Leipzig 4:1 in the Champions League. They have 11 points and land 6.4 shots on target a game over their last ten, against 3.1 conceded.
Full match analysis