Mastantuono lost the ball 18 times at Genoa. Vanoli's answer: keep playing him
Our take This is protection, not a warning
Football · Italy · Serie A · Matchday 7 · Florence
FiorentinavsComo prediction
Score
1:3
Date
18 OCT
City
Florence
Status
Full time
FIO1:3COMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Fiorentina vs Como?
Our Fiorentina vs Como prediction: both teams score in Florence on Sunday afternoon, most likely 1:2. Fiorentina have conceded 14 goals in six Serie A games and Understat has them allowing 1.83 expected goals a game, but they also create 1.41. Como create 2.23 a game and allow 1.50. Both teams scored in six of Fiorentina's last ten games and seven of Como's, and each kept only two clean sheets in that run, so we back goals at both ends rather than a result.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.55
Fiorentina vs Como at a glance
| Match | Fiorentina vs Como |
|---|---|
| Competition | Serie A · Matchday 7 |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 14:00 UK · 15:00 Florence |
| Venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.55 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–68% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | We think both teams score here. |
No. 04 · Form
Fiorentina vs Como: recent form
Fiorentina 7 from 15. Como 7 from 15.
Fiorentina7 pts
- Lossvs Genoa1:2
- Drawvs Napoli1:1
- Winvs Pisa3:0
- Winvs Venezia4:2
- Lossvs Torino1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Como7 pts
- Lossvs Feyenoord2:3
- Drawvs Roma0:0
- Lossvs Frosinone0:2
- Winvs Parma2:1
- Winvs RB Leipzig4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factFiorentina lost 1:2 at Genoa on 10 October after a 1:1 with Napoli, a 3:0 cup win over Pisa, a 4:2 at Venezia and a 1:2 home defeat to Torino. They have four points from six league games, 7:14 on goals, and Understat has them about three points below their expected points: they play better than their table. Como lost 2:3 at Feyenoord on Wednesday, drew 0:0 with Roma, lost 0:2 at Frosinone, beat Parma 2:1 and beat RB Leipzig 4:1 in the Champions League. They have 11 points and land 6.4 shots on target a game over their last ten, against 3.1 conceded.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Fiorentina vs Como team news
Como without Moise Kean; Fiorentina miss Fabiano Parisi.
Fiorentina
- OutFabiano ParisiInjured, reported by one preview
- DoubtArthur AttaFitness doubt, reported by one preview
Como
- OutMoise KeanInjured on international duty, reported by one preview
- DoubtAssane DiaoKnock against Feyenoord, reported by one preview
TacticsThe Stats Zone reports that Fabiano Parisi is out for Fiorentina and that Arthur Atta is a doubt. For Como it lists Moise Kean as injured on international duty and Assane Diao as a doubt after the Champions League game in Rotterdam. We found these absences in one full preview only, so we treat them as reported, not confirmed. Como host Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday, three days after this game, and may rotate; Fiorentina had eight days of rest and next play Inter on 25 October. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Fabregas says Italy played Kean injured for 90 minutes. Roma have the bigger problem
Our take Roma lose more than Como
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Fiorentina vs Como predicted score
An open game with a goal at each end.
Como take almost 20 shots a game and Fiorentina have not kept a clean sheet in the league this season, so we expect Como to score. Fiorentina scored in eight of their last ten and hit the target six times a game over the last five, so we expect them to answer. Our main score is 1:2, the cautious one 1:1. The bet wins with any score where both teams score (1:1, 1:2, 2:2 and so on) and loses with 0:0 or any clean sheet, for example 0:1 after a rotated Como side.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
FIO
COM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Fiorentina vs Como pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think both teams score here. Fiorentina allow almost two expected goals a game and have not kept a clean sheet in six league games, but they still create chances. Como hit the target twice as often as their opponents over the last ten, and both teams scored in seven of those games. We expect an open game and a 2:1 for Como.
Our probability64–68%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.55
Main scenario1:2
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A Como line-up without both Nico Paz and Anastasios Douvikas, or the price falling below 1.45: then we would drop the bet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 3.34 | 29.9% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Como win | 2.07 | 48.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 61% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 45.9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 64.5% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.36 | 42.4% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 07:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
How one side could keep a clean sheet.
- Como failed to score in two of their last four league games, 0:0 with Roma and 0:2 at Frosinone.
- Como play Manchester United on Tuesday and may rest attackers, with Kean already out.
- The price of 1.55 needs about 65% to break even, so the margin for error is small; it is a one-unit single.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet both teams to score at 1.55 as a one-unit single. It wins whenever both sides score, whoever wins.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.55
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.55
- Happened
- 1:3Como win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.