Single · No. 110 · 18 OCTWon
Milan vs Atalanta
- 01Milan vs AtalantaMilan win1.79 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.79
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- P&L
- +1.58 units
- Our estimate
- 53–56%
Published 18 OCT 06:22
Odds: average of 37 popular bookmakers, 18 OCT 06:2518+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 37 popular bookmakers, 18 OCT 06:2518+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on AC Milan to beat Atalanta at San Siro in Serie A. Milan have not lost a league game this season and create far more than Atalanta by expected goals, while Atalanta arrive with four players out, among them two centre-backs. All three previews we opened pick a Milan win; our main score is 2:1.
Leg 1 · Football · Italy · Serie A · 18 OCT · 17:00 UK
Milan vs Atalanta
Milan win1.79Won
Why this pickMilan are unbeaten in Serie A with three wins and three draws, and Understat has them at 1.93 expected goals for and 1.21 against per game; Atalanta are at 1.13 and 2.23. Sports Mole and The Hard Tackle both report Atalanta without the suspended Eljif Elmas and the injured Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien and Ibrahim Sulemana, two of them centre-backs. Sports Mole (2:1), The Hard Tackle (3:2) and SportsGambler (2:0) all pick Milan. The risk: Milan have not beaten Atalanta in seven meetings and drew three of their last four league games.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Milan win
- 53–56%
Form · Milan 8 from 15. Atalanta 6 from 15.
Milan8 pts
- Winvs Salzburg4:0
- Drawvs Sassuolo1:1
- Winvs Lecce3:0
- Lossvs Benfica0:2
- Drawvs Lazio2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Atalanta6 pts
- Winvs Pafos3:1
- Winvs Venezia3:1
- Lossvs Juventus0:2
- Lossvs Cagliari1:2
- Lossvs Roma1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Lineups · Expected
- Milan
- OutMatteo GabbiaLong-term injury, reported by three previews
- OutAlexis SaelemaekersLong-term injury, reported by three previews
- Atalanta
- OutEljif ElmasSuspended, reported by two previews
- OutOdilon KossounouInjured, reported by two previews
- OutIsak HienInjured, reported by two previews
- OutIbrahim SulemanaInjured, reported by two previews
- DoubtGiorgio ScalviniFitness doubt, reported by two previews
What others predict · Consensus 3 of 3
Our positionThree of three back Milan, and Sports Mole's 2:1 is our score too. The prices give Milan about 53% after the margin; we put the win at 53–56%, and Milan or draw at 79–82%, because the missing Atalanta defenders are a fact the price only partly carries.
Scenario & score
Milan press early, Atalanta still score once. Atalanta allow 2.23 expected goals a game and arrive without two centre-backs, so we expect Milan to create the better chances from the first half. Atalanta scored in eight of their last ten, which is why our main score is 2:1 and the cautious one 1:1. The single wins with any Milan win (1:0, 2:1, 3:1 and so on) and loses with a draw or an Atalanta win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Milan have not beaten Atalanta in seven meetings, and Atalanta won four of their last five visits to San Siro, including 3:2 in May (The Hard Tackle, Sports Mole).
- 02Milan drew three of their last four league games; a draw is a real outcome.
- 03Both sides play in Europe on Thursday, and Milan may rotate before Bournemouth.
Key factMilan beat Salzburg 4:0 away in the Europa League on Thursday after a 1:1 at Sassuolo, a 3:0 against Lecce, a 0:2 home defeat to Benfica and a 2:2 at Lazio. Over the last five they hit the target 6.2 times a game and allowed 3.8. Atalanta beat Pafos 3:1 on Thursday and Venezia 3:1 before that, but lost their three games before those: 0:2 at Juventus, 1:2 at home to Cagliari and 1:2 at Roma. They have nine points from six league games, three fewer than Milan, and Understat rates their play at about 4.8 points below their tally.
Full match analysis