Sarri calls the calendar absurd after Raspadori limps off. Milan are next
Our take A fair complaint that doubles as an alibi
Football · Italy · Serie A · Matchday 7 · Milan
MilanvsAtalanta AC Milan vs Atalanta · prediction
Score
3:2
Date
18 OCT
City
Milan
Status
Full time
MIL3:2ATAFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Milan vs Atalanta?
Our AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction: a Milan win at San Siro on Sunday evening, most likely 2:1. Milan are unbeaten in Serie A this season with three wins and three draws, and Understat has them creating 1.93 expected goals a game while allowing 1.21; Atalanta create 1.13 and allow 2.23. Atalanta travel without the suspended Eljif Elmas and three injured players, two of them centre-backs. We back the Milan win as a single.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 53–56%
- Market
- Milan win
- Price now
- 1.79
Milan vs Atalanta at a glance
| Match | AC Milan vs Atalanta |
|---|---|
| Competition | Serie A · Matchday 7 |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 17:00 UK · 18:00 Milan |
| Venue | San Siro, Milan |
| Our pick | Milan win · 1.79 · bet |
| Our estimate | 53–56% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We think Milan win this. |
No. 04 · Form
Milan vs Atalanta: recent form
Milan 8 from 15. Atalanta 6 from 15.
Milan8 pts
- Winvs Salzburg4:0
- Drawvs Sassuolo1:1
- Winvs Lecce3:0
- Lossvs Benfica0:2
- Drawvs Lazio2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Atalanta6 pts
- Winvs Pafos3:1
- Winvs Venezia3:1
- Lossvs Juventus0:2
- Lossvs Cagliari1:2
- Lossvs Roma1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factMilan beat Salzburg 4:0 away in the Europa League on Thursday after a 1:1 at Sassuolo, a 3:0 against Lecce, a 0:2 home defeat to Benfica and a 2:2 at Lazio. Over the last five they hit the target 6.2 times a game and allowed 3.8. Atalanta beat Pafos 3:1 on Thursday and Venezia 3:1 before that, but lost their three games before those: 0:2 at Juventus, 1:2 at home to Cagliari and 1:2 at Roma. They have nine points from six league games, three fewer than Milan, and Understat rates their play at about 4.8 points below their tally.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Milan vs Atalanta team news
Atalanta without Elmas, Kossounou, Hien and Sulemana; Milan miss Gabbia and Saelemaekers.
Milan
- OutMatteo GabbiaLong-term injury, reported by three previews
- OutAlexis SaelemaekersLong-term injury, reported by three previews
Atalanta
- OutEljif ElmasSuspended, reported by two previews
- OutOdilon KossounouInjured, reported by two previews
- OutIsak HienInjured, reported by two previews
- OutIbrahim SulemanaInjured, reported by two previews
- DoubtGiorgio ScalviniFitness doubt, reported by two previews
TacticsSports Mole and The Hard Tackle both report that Eljif Elmas is suspended and that Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien and Ibrahim Sulemana are injured, so Atalanta lose two centre-backs. Giorgio Scalvini, Giacomo Raspadori and Franck Kessié are listed as doubts by both. For Milan, Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are out long-term, according to Sports Mole, The Hard Tackle and SportsGambler; that has been known for weeks. Filippo Terracciano's red card in Salzburg carries a Europa League ban, not a Serie A one (Sports Mole). Both teams played in Europe on Thursday and travel again on 22 October, Milan to Bournemouth and Atalanta to Ajax, so rotation risk is the same on both sides. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Report: Milan are unbeaten, and Cardinale still left Sassuolo angry with Amorim
Our take Amorim survives until winter at least
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Milan vs Atalanta?
All three previews we opened pick a Milan win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | AC Milan 2:1 Atalanta | Same side |
| The Hard Tackle | AC Milan 3:2 Atalanta | Same side |
| SportsGambler | Milan win, 2:0 | Same side |
Our positionThree of three back Milan, and Sports Mole's 2:1 is our score too. The prices give Milan about 53% after the margin; we put the win at 53–56%, and Milan or draw at 79–82%, because the missing Atalanta defenders are a fact the price only partly carries.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Milan vs Atalanta predicted score
Milan press early, Atalanta still score once.
Atalanta allow 2.23 expected goals a game and arrive without two centre-backs, so we expect Milan to create the better chances from the first half. Atalanta scored in eight of their last ten, which is why our main score is 2:1 and the cautious one 1:1. The single wins with any Milan win (1:0, 2:1, 3:1 and so on) and loses with a draw or an Atalanta win.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
MIL
ATA
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Milan vs Atalanta pick: Milan win
Milan win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Milan win this. They are unbeaten in the league, outshoot opponents on target almost two to one over their last five, and face an Atalanta side that allows more than two expected goals a game and is missing two centre-backs and its suspended midfielder. The head-to-head record is poor for Milan, but it belongs to other line-ups. We see Milan on top from the first half and a 2:1 at the end.
Our probability53–56%
Our pickMilan win
Odds1.79
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A Milan line-up without two of Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot and Christian Pulisic, or the price on Milan drifting above 2.00 on team news: then we would drop the bet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Milan win | 1.79 | 55.9% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Atalanta win | 4.23 | 23.6% |
| Milan or draw | 1.21 | 82.6% |
| Atalanta or draw | 1.99 | 50.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.09 | 47.8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 60.2% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.18 | 45.9% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 07:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
How Atalanta could spoil it.
- Milan have not beaten Atalanta in seven meetings, and Atalanta won four of their last five visits to San Siro, including 3:2 in May (The Hard Tackle, Sports Mole).
- Milan drew three of their last four league games; a draw is a real outcome.
- Both sides play in Europe on Thursday, and Milan may rotate before Bournemouth.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Milan win at 1.79 as a single. It wins with any Milan win and loses with a draw or an Atalanta win.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Milan win at 1.79
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.79
- Happened
- 3:2Milan win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.