Single: Bouzkova vs Rakhimova

Why this betA single on Marie Bouzkova to beat the qualifier Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round of the Ningbo Open. Bouzkova, ranked 28, is 31-8 as a favourite this season and won both of their meetings in 2024 without dropping a set, in Bogota and Jiujiang. Rakhimova, ranked 69, plays on a third straight day after two qualifying rounds, the second of them a three-setter against Tatiana Prozorova yesterday.

Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · 19 OCT · 10:30 UK

Marie Bouzkova vs Kamilla Rakhimova

Marie Bouzkova win1.36Won

Why this pickBouzkova holds 70.3% of her service games this season against Rakhimova’s 60.8%, and Rakhimova averages 5.3 double faults a match, so we expect most breaks to go Bouzkova’s way. Bouzkova has had five days of rest since Wuhan; Rakhimova played five sets in two days of qualifying. Dimers gives Bouzkova 70%, and Tennis Tonic and The Stats Zone pick her in two sets. The risk: our fresh Elo rating gives her only 59.3%, she is 14-15 on hard courts this season, and Last Word On Tennis picks Rakhimova. We expect 6:4, 6:3; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 68–71%

Form · Rakhimova won two qualifying rounds in Ningbo; Bouzkova lost to Chwalinska in Wuhan after winning the first set 6:1

Marie BouzkovaLast 10: 6-4

Won v Jovic I. 7-6(0), 7-6(5)
Lost to Gauff C. 6-3, 6-2
Won v Jacquemot E. 6-2, 6-2
Won v Dart H. 6-2, 6-2
Lost to Swiatek I. 7-6(3), 7-6(3)
Won v Kartal S. 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4
Won v Birrell K. 6-4, 6-4
Lost to Zheng Q. 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-5
Won v Tauson C. 6-1, 2-0 ret.
Lost to Chwalinska M. 1-6, 6-1, 6-1

Kamilla RakhimovaLast 10: 6-4

Lost to Sabalenka A. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Kudermetova P. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-5
Lost to Volynets K. 6-3, 6-0
Won v Bassols Ribera M. 6-4, 7-6(2)
Won v Fernandez L. 6-2, 4-6, 6-3
Lost to Jovic I. 6-1, 7-5
Won v Kenin S. 6-0, 6-3
Lost to Shi H. 7-6(2), 6-1
Won v Yastremska D. 6-2, 6-4
Won v Prozorova T. 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4

Stats comparison

Stat	Bouzkova	Rakhimova
On hard courts	14-15	22-19
Last 10 matches	6-4	6-4
Service games held	70.3%	60.8%
Return games won	36.7%	38.1%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Bouzkova in two sets. Bouzkova puts 68.5% of her first serves in and holds 70.3% of her service games; Rakhimova lands 57.4% and holds 60.8%, so most breaks should go Bouzkova’s way. Rakhimova returns well (38.1% of return games won), which keeps the sets close. We expect 6:4, 6:3. A 2:1 Bouzkova win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01Our fresh Elo rating gives Bouzkova only 59.3%, well below what the market sees.
02Bouzkova is 14-15 on hard courts this season and lost her last match 6:1, 1:6, 1:6.
03Rakhimova has already won two matches on these courts this week and beat Leylah Fernandez in Beijing this month; Last Word On Tennis picks her.

Bouzkova this autumnIn Beijing she beat Kristina Birrell 6:4, 6:4, then lost to Qinwen Zheng 6:7(3), 6:4, 5:7. In Wuhan she beat Clara Tauson, who retired at 6:1, 2:0, and then lost to Maja Chwalinska 6:1, 1:6, 1:6.

Full match analysis