Single: Parry vs Eala — odds 1.30

Why this betA single on Alexandra Eala to beat Diane Parry in the first round of the Ningbo Open. Eala, ranked 19, is 29-6 as a favourite this season and 27-14 on hard courts. Parry, ranked 32, won the Monterrey title in August and has lost her last four matches, all in straight sets, the last two to Taylor Preston in Beijing and Lanlana Tararudee in Wuhan.

Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · 19 OCT · 12:30 UK

Diane Parry vs Alexandra Eala

Alexandra Eala win1.30Won

Why this pickEala wins 37.3% of her return games this season against Parry’s 28.8%, and 44.5% of return points against 40.5%. Parry is only 14-13 when she starts as the favourite, and her slice has not troubled heavy hitters lately. The Tennis Abstract Elo table gives Eala 71.8%, Dimers 74%, and Tennis Tonic and Last Word On Tennis both pick her. The risk: Eala has lost three of her last five, twice as a big favourite, and Parry is 18-9 as an underdog this season. We expect 6:3, 6:4 for Eala; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 0:2
Our estimate: 72–74%

Form · Parry has lost four in a row in straight sets; Eala lost her last two matches in three sets

Diane ParryLast 10: 6-4

Won v Vekic D. 6(5)-7, 6-4, 6-1
Won v Oliynykova O. 6-4, 7-6(3)
Won v Tauson C. 6-3, 7-5
Won v Li A. 7-6(7), 6-4
Won v Mertens E. 6-4, 0-6, 6-3
Won v Golubic V. 7-5, 6-4
Lost to Cirstea S. 6-2, 7-5
Lost to Stearns P. 6-2, 7-5
Lost to Preston T. 7-6(4), 6-1
Lost to Tararudee L. 6-4, 6-1

Alexandra EalaLast 10: 5-5

Won v Ruse E. 6-1, 3-0 ret.
Lost to Anisimova A. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
Won v Stoiana M. 6-1, 6-2
Won v Oliynykova O. 6-1, 6-4
Lost to Jovic I. 7-5, 3-6, 7-5
Lost to Prozorova T. 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
Won v Cheapchandej P. 6-1, 6-0
Won v Garland J. 7-5, 6-0
Lost to Wang X. 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Shi H. 4-6, 6-3, 6-3

Stats comparison

Stat	Parry	Eala
On hard courts	18-14	27-14
Last 10 matches	6-4	5-5
Service games held	71.1%	66.8%
Return games won	28.8%	37.3%

Our scenario

3:6, 4:6 0:2 in sets

Eala in two sets. Parry serves better on paper (71.1% of service games held against 66.8%, 4.2 aces a match against 1.3), but Eala is the far stronger returner: 44.5% of return points won against 40.5%. Parry’s slice and changes of pace have not worked against heavy baseline hitters lately. We expect 6:3, 6:4 for Eala. A 2:1 Eala win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

01Eala has lost three of her last five matches, twice as a heavy favourite (Han Shi in Wuhan, Tatiana Prozorova in Singapore).
02Parry is 18-9 as an underdog this season; Tennis Tonic counts seven wins over top-30 players.
03Parry holds serve more often this season, 71.1% against 66.8%.

Eala this autumnAt the Asian Games she beat Punnin Cheapchandej 6:1, 6:0 and Joanna Garland 7:5, 6:0, then lost the semi-final to Xiyu Wang 6:3, 3:6, 2:6. In Wuhan she lost her first match to Han Shi 6:4, 3:6, 3:6.

Full match analysis