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Single · No. 113 · 19 OCTWon

Golubic vs Hontama

  1. 01Viktorija Golubic vs Mai HontamaViktorija Golubic win1.33 · Won
Total odds
1.33
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.33 units
Our estimate
71–73%
Published 18 OCT 18:5018+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Viktorija Golubic to beat Mai Hontama in the first round of the Japan Open in Osaka. Hontama, ranked 164, plays on a home wild card and lost both of her last two main-draw matches on the WTA tour in straight sets, to Katie Boulter in Beijing and Emma Jones in Suzhou. Golubic, ranked 72, came through two rounds in Beijing this month and is 19-6 as a favourite this season.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · 19 OCT · 03:30 UK

Viktorija Golubic vs Mai Hontama

Viktorija Golubic win1.33Won
Why this pickGolubic wins 40.4% of her return games this season against Hontama’s 35.2%, and she saves 55% of the break points she faces against Hontama’s 38.2%. With neither player holding serve often, those break points decide sets. Golubic also won their only meeting, on a hard court in Lyon in 2022. Tennis Abstract’s Elo gives her 77.5%, Dimers 71%, and both Last Word On Tennis and Tennis Tonic pick her in two sets. The risk: Golubic is only 13-14 on hard courts this season and arrives on two straight defeats. We expect 6:3, 6:4; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
71–73%

Form · Golubic won two rounds in Beijing; Hontama lost her last two main-draw matches in straight sets

Viktorija GolubicLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Birrell K. 7-6(7), 6-4
  2. Won v Vekic D. 5-7, 6-2, 6-3
  3. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-2, 6-1
  4. Won v Parks A. 6-2, 6-2
  5. Lost to Tjen J. 7-6(8), 5-7, 7-5
  6. Lost to Parry D. 7-5, 6-4
  7. Won v Kalieva E. 6-3, 6-1
  8. Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
  9. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 6-1
  10. Lost to Kasatkina D. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4
Mai HontamaLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Andreeva E. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5)
  2. Won v Ku Y. 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
  3. Lost to Scott K. 6-2, 6-2
  4. Won v Gjorcheska L. 7-6(1), 6-3
  5. Lost to Lazaro Garcia A. 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-1
  6. Lost to Lee E. 6-0, 5-7, 6-3
  7. Won v Panova A. 7-5, 6-1
  8. Won v Burrage J. 2-6, 6-1, 6-2
  9. Lost to Boulter K. 6-3, 6-4
  10. Lost to Jones E. 6-4, 6-0

Stats comparison

StatGolubicHontama
On hard courts13-1425-20
Last 10 matches5-55-5
Service games held62.8%61.8%
Return games won40.4%35.2%

Our scenario

6:3, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Golubic in two sets. Neither player holds serve often (62.8% and 61.8% of service games this season), so breaks will come on both sides. Golubic is the better returner and much steadier on break points, which is where we expect the match to turn. We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Golubic win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Golubic is only 13-14 on hard courts this season and holds 62.8% of her service games.
  2. 02She has lost her last two matches, to Linda Noskova in Beijing and Daria Kasatkina in Wuhan qualifying.
  3. 03Hontama plays at home; she has only five WTA matches with official stats this season, a small sample.
Golubic this autumnIn Beijing she beat Elena Kalieva 6:3, 6:1 and Peyton Stearns 6:4, 3:6, 6:3 before losing to Linda Noskova. In Wuhan she lost in the first round of qualifying to Daria Kasatkina 4:6, 7:6(3), 6:4.
Full match analysis