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Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · First round · Hard

Viktorija GolubicvsMai Hontama prediction · Japan Open 2026

Date
19 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
First match on court, not before 11:30 local (03:30 UK)
Status
6:3 6:1
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Golubic vs Hontama?

Viktorija Golubic plays Mai Hontama in the first round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Monday. We back Golubic to win the match, most likely 6:3, 6:4.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
71–73%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Viktorija Golubic win
Odds at publish
1.33
Set by set
6:3, 6:4
Not before (UK)
03:30

Golubic vs Hontama at a glance

MatchViktorija Golubic vs Mai Hontama
TournamentWTA · Japan Open, Osaka · First round
SurfaceHard
Start19 OCT · 03:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCenter Court · First match on court
Our pickViktorija Golubic win · 1.33 · bet
Our estimate71–73%
Predicted score2:0 (6:3, 6:4)
Main reasonViktorija Golubic is ranked 72 and is 19-6 as a favourite this season.
No. 02 · Form

Golubic vs Hontama: recent form

Golubic won two rounds in Beijing; Hontama lost her last two main-draw matches in straight sets

Viktorija GolubicLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Birrell K. 7-6(7), 6-4
  2. Won v Vekic D. 5-7, 6-2, 6-3
  3. Lost to Swiatek I. 6-2, 6-1
  4. Won v Parks A. 6-2, 6-2
  5. Lost to Tjen J. 7-6(8), 5-7, 7-5
  6. Lost to Parry D. 7-5, 6-4
  7. Won v Kalieva E. 6-3, 6-1
  8. Won v Stearns P. 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
  9. Lost to Noskova L. 6-2, 6-1
  10. Lost to Kasatkina D. 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4
Mai HontamaLast 10: 5-5
  1. Won v Andreeva E. 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5)
  2. Won v Ku Y. 6-1, 4-6, 6-3
  3. Lost to Scott K. 6-2, 6-2
  4. Won v Gjorcheska L. 7-6(1), 6-3
  5. Lost to Lazaro Garcia A. 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-1
  6. Lost to Lee E. 6-0, 5-7, 6-3
  7. Won v Panova A. 7-5, 6-1
  8. Won v Burrage J. 2-6, 6-1, 6-2
  9. Lost to Boulter K. 6-3, 6-4
  10. Lost to Jones E. 6-4, 6-0

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Viktorija Golubic
Lost toKasatkina D.Wuhan · 10.10.264-6, 7-6(3), 6-4
Lost toNoskova L.Beijing · 04.10.266-2, 6-1
Won vStearns P.Beijing · 02.10.266-4, 3-6, 6-3
Won vKalieva E.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-1
Lost toParry D.US Open · 31.08.267-5, 6-4
Lost toTjen J.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.267-6(8), 5-7, 7-5
Won vParks A.Cincinnati WTA · 14.08.266-2, 6-2
Lost toSwiatek I.Toronto WTA · 06.08.266-2, 6-1
Won vVekic D.Toronto WTA · 04.08.265-7, 6-2, 6-3
Won vBirrell K.Toronto WTA · 02.08.267-6(7), 6-4
Mai Hontama
Lost toJones E.Suzhou · 06.10.266-4, 6-0
Lost toBoulter K.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-4
Won vBurrage J.Beijing · 29.09.262-6, 6-1, 6-2
Won vPanova A.Beijing · 28.09.267-5, 6-1
Lost toLee E.Seoul WTA · 19.09.266-0, 5-7, 6-3
Lost toLazaro Garcia A.US Open · 26.08.265-7, 7-6(6), 6-1
Won vGjorcheska L.US Open · 24.08.267-6(1), 6-3
Lost toScott K.Landisville 2 ITF · 08.08.266-2, 6-2
Won vKu Y.Landisville 2 ITF · 08.08.266-1, 4-6, 6-3
Won vAndreeva E.Landisville 2 ITF · 04.08.266-4, 4-6, 7-6(5)
Golubic this autumnIn Beijing she beat Elena Kalieva 6:3, 6:1 and Peyton Stearns 6:4, 3:6, 6:3 before losing to Linda Noskova. In Wuhan she lost in the first round of qualifying to Daria Kasatkina 4:6, 7:6(3), 6:4.
No. 03 · Context

A Swiss veteran against a Japanese wild card in the first round in Osaka

Hontama this autumn
She came through two qualifying rounds in Beijing and lost to Katie Boulter 6:3, 6:4, then lost to Emma Jones 6:4, 6:0 in the first round in Suzhou. In Osaka she plays as a wild card.
Season and surface
Golubic is 28-24 this season and 13-14 on hard courts. Hontama is 33-26 and 25-20 on hard courts, many of those matches in qualifying and on the ITF tour.
Head to head
Golubic won their only meeting, in Lyon in 2022 on a hard court, 1:6, 6:4, 6:4.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Golubic wins 40.4% of her return games this season, Hontama 35.2%

StatGolubicHontama
Season record28-2433-26 (better)
On hard courts13-1425-20 (better)
Last 10 matches5-55-5
As favourite19-6 (better)21-11
As underdog9-1811-15 (better)
StatGolubicHontama
Matches275
Aces per match1.3 (better)0.6
Double faults per match2.7 (better)2.8
1st serve in68.9%69.9% (better)
1st serve points won59.2% (better)58.8%
2nd serve points won46.1%47.3% (better)
Service games held62.8% (better)61.8%
Break points saved55.0% (better)38.2%
StatGolubicHontama
Return points won45.3% (better)43.8%
Return games won40.4% (better)35.2%
Break points converted44.2%46.3% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings

Golubic leads 1-0

2022GolubicLyon · Hard · R321-6 6-4 6-4
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Golubic vs Hontama?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
Tennis Abstract EloGolubic, 77.5%Same side
DimersGolubic, 71%Same side
Last Word On TennisGolubic in two setsSame side
Tennis TonicGolubic in two setsSame side
Our position4 of 4 back Golubic. We are on Golubic’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Golubic vs Hontama predicted score

Golubic in two sets

Neither player holds serve often (62.8% and 61.8% of service games this season), so breaks will come on both sides. Golubic is the better returner and much steadier on break points, which is where we expect the match to turn. We expect 6:3, 6:4. A 2:1 Golubic win still wins the bet.

Predicted score
2:0
6:3, 6:4
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 3:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Golubic vs Hontama pick: Viktorija Golubic win

Golubic to win the match

Why we back it

Viktorija Golubic is ranked 72 and is 19-6 as a favourite this season. Mai Hontama is in the main draw on a wild card; her two most recent tour-level main-draw matches, against Katie Boulter in Beijing and Emma Jones in Suzhou, both ended in straight-set defeats. Golubic wins 40.4% of her return games this season against Hontama’s 35.2%, and she saves 55% of the break points she faces against 38.2%. Every model and preview we checked backs Golubic. We expect 6:3, 6:4; a win in three sets also wins the bet.

Our probability71–73%
Our pickViktorija Golubic win
Odds1.33
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:3, 6:42:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 3:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Any news about Golubic’s fitness before the match, or her price moving above 1.45.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Golubic is only 13-14 on hard courts this season and holds 62.8% of her service games.
  2. She has lost her last two matches, to Linda Noskova in Beijing and Daria Kasatkina in Wuhan qualifying.
  3. Hontama plays at home; she has only five WTA matches with official stats this season, a small sample.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Golubic to win the match: Hontama, a home wild card ranked 164, lost both of her last two main-draw matches on the WTA tour in straight sets.

Bet
Viktorija Golubic win
Odds at publish
1.33 · 18 OCT 18:10 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly