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Single · No. 114 · 19 OCTLost

Tirante vs Acosta

  1. 01Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Diaz AcostaThiago Agustin Tirante win1.34 · Lost
Total odds
1.34
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
71–73%
Published 18 OCT 18:5018+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Thiago Agustin Tirante to beat Facundo Diaz Acosta in the first round of the Almaty Open, indoors on a hard court. Diaz Acosta has built his season on clay: 48 wins there against one win from six matches on hard courts, and he arrives on three straight defeats. Tirante, the eighth seed, is 15-11 on hard courts this season and beat Novak Djokovic and Jakub Mensik in Cincinnati in August.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · 19 OCT · 07:30 UK

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Diaz Acosta

Thiago Agustin Tirante win1.34Lost
Why this pickIndoors, Tirante’s serve does the work: 10.2 aces a match and 79.9% of first-serve points won over his last ten matches with stats, against 3.1 aces for Diaz Acosta. Diaz Acosta’s season titles all came on clay, and his losses this autumn came against Daniel Galan, Nuno Borges and Shintaro Mochizuki. Tirante leads their meetings 3-1, all on clay. Tennis Abstract’s Elo gives him 71.9%, Dimers 70%, and Tennis Tonic picks him in two sets. The risk: Tirante lost two of his last ten as the favourite and wins few return games, so tie-breaks are likely. A win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
71–73%

Form · Diaz Acosta is 1-5 on hard courts in 2026; Tirante beat Djokovic on a hard court in August

Thiago Agustin TiranteLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Choinski J. 7-6(9), 6(7)-7, 7-6(4)
  2. Won v Djokovic N. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
  3. Won v Landaluce M. 7-6(5), 7-6(4)
  4. Won v Mensik J. 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
  5. Lost to Fils A. 6-3, 6-2
  6. Lost to Mannarino A. 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
  7. Won v Alkaya M. 6-2, 6-4
  8. Lost to Struff J. 6-1, 6-4
  9. Won v Medjedovic H. 6-4, 6-2
  10. Lost to Jodar R. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
Facundo Diaz AcostaLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Poljicak M. 6-1, 6-4
  2. Lost to Halys Q. 6-4, 7-5, 6(7)-7, 6-1
  3. Won v Martin Tiffon P. 6-3, 2-6, 6-2
  4. Won v Moro Canas A. 6-1, 7-5
  5. Won v Ofner S. 7-5, 6-2
  6. Won v Munar J. 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1)
  7. Won v Lajovic D. 6-2, 6-1
  8. Lost to Galan D. 5-7, 6-2, 6-3
  9. Lost to Borges N. 7-6(5), 6-2
  10. Lost to Mochizuki S. 6-2, 7-6(6)

Stats comparison

StatTiranteAcosta
On hard courts15-111-5
Last 10 matches6-46-4
Service games held80.2%80.2%
Return games won13.4%23.3%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Tirante in two sets. Tirante puts only 54% of his first serves in, so tie-breaks are possible, but he wins almost 80% of the points when it lands. Diaz Acosta’s return numbers come mostly from clay Challengers and should drop indoors. We expect 7:6, 6:4. A 2:1 Tirante win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Tirante lost two of his last ten matches as the favourite: to Jan-Lennard Struff in Beijing and to Adrian Mannarino at the US Open from two sets up.
  2. 02He wins only 13.4% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, so sets can go to tie-breaks.
  3. 03The official court and order of play were not yet published when we wrote this.
Tirante this autumnIn Shanghai he beat Hamad Medjedovic 6:4, 6:2 and lost to Rafael Jodar 6:4, 2:6, 3:6. In Beijing he lost in the first round to Jan-Lennard Struff. He reached a career-high ranking of 42 in August.
Full match analysis