Thiago Agustin TirantevsFacundo Diaz Acosta prediction · Almaty Open 2026
Who will win Tirante vs Acosta?
Thiago Agustin Tirante plays Facundo Diaz Acosta in the first round of the Almaty Open on Monday. We back Tirante to win the match, most likely in two sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our estimate
- 71–73%
- Our pick
- Thiago Agustin Tirante win
- Odds at publish
- 1.34
- Set by set
- 7:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 07:30
Tirante vs Acosta at a glance
| Match | Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Diaz Acosta |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · First round |
| Surface | Indoor hard |
| Start | 19 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local |
| Court | Almaty Arena · Day session starts at 11:30 AM; court and order not yet published |
| Our pick | Thiago Agustin Tirante win · 1.34 · bet |
| Our estimate | 71–73% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (7:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Facundo Diaz Acosta has won 48 matches on clay this season and one on hard courts, from six; his season titles all came on clay, and he arrives on a three-match losing run. |
Tirante vs Acosta: recent form
Diaz Acosta is 1-5 on hard courts in 2026; Tirante beat Djokovic on a hard court in August
- Won v Choinski J. 7-6(9), 6(7)-7, 7-6(4)
- Won v Djokovic N. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Landaluce M. 7-6(5), 7-6(4)
- Won v Mensik J. 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Fils A. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Mannarino A. 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Alkaya M. 6-2, 6-4
- Lost to Struff J. 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Medjedovic H. 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Jodar R. 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Poljicak M. 6-1, 6-4
- Lost to Halys Q. 6-4, 7-5, 6(7)-7, 6-1
- Won v Martin Tiffon P. 6-3, 2-6, 6-2
- Won v Moro Canas A. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Ofner S. 7-5, 6-2
- Won v Munar J. 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1)
- Won v Lajovic D. 6-2, 6-1
- Lost to Galan D. 5-7, 6-2, 6-3
- Lost to Borges N. 7-6(5), 6-2
- Lost to Mochizuki S. 6-2, 7-6(6)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Lost to | Jodar R.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Medjedovic H.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Struff J.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Alkaya M.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Mannarino A.US Open · 31.08.26 | 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Fils A.Cincinnati · 21.08.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Mensik J.Cincinnati · 19.08.26 | 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Landaluce M.Cincinnati · 17.08.26 | 7-6(5), 7-6(4) |
| Won v | Djokovic N.Cincinnati · 15.08.26 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Choinski J.Cincinnati · 13.08.26 | 7-6(9), 6(7)-7, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Mochizuki S.Jinan challenger · 13.10.26 | 6-2, 7-6(6) |
| Lost to | Borges N.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 7-6(5), 6-2 |
| Lost to | Galan D.Szczecin challenger · 15.09.26 | 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Lajovic D.Sevilla challenger · 13.09.26 | 6-2, 6-1 |
| Won v | Munar J.Sevilla challenger · 12.09.26 | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1) |
| Won v | Ofner S.Sevilla challenger · 11.09.26 | 7-5, 6-2 |
| Won v | Moro Canas A.Sevilla challenger · 09.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Martin Tiffon P.Sevilla challenger · 07.09.26 | 6-3, 2-6, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Halys Q.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-4, 7-5, 6(7)-7, 6-1 |
| Won v | Poljicak M.San Marino challenger · 02.08.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
An all-Argentine first round in Almaty, indoors
- Diaz Acosta this autumn
- He lost to Daniel Galan at the Szczecin Challenger, Nuno Borges in Shanghai and Shintaro Mochizuki at the Jinan Challenger. His last title came on clay in Seville in September.
- Season and surface
- Tirante is 34-23 this season and 15-11 on hard courts. Diaz Acosta is 49-21: 48-15 on clay and 1-5 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Tirante leads 3-1; all four meetings were on clay, the last at the Costa do Sauipe Challenger in October 2025 (7:6, 6:4).
Tirante averages 10.2 aces a match over his last ten with stats, Diaz Acosta 3.1
| Stat | Tirante | Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 34-23 | 49-21 (better) |
| On hard courts | 15-11 (better) | 1-5 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| As favourite | 20-6 | 48-11 (better) |
| As underdog | 13-16 (better) | 1-9 |
| Stat | Tirante | Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (5-5) | 10 (6-4) |
| Aces per match | 10.2 (better) | 3.1 |
| Double faults per match | 3.8 | 1.7 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 54.2% | 71.1% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 79.9% (better) | 69.0% |
| 2nd serve points won | 50.4% | 55.3% (better) |
| Service games held | 80.2% | 80.2% |
| Break points saved | 60.0% | 60.7% (better) |
| Stat | Tirante | Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 34.2% | 38.1% (better) |
| Return games won | 13.4% | 23.3% (better) |
| Break points converted | 24.0% | 42.9% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 18 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats: Thiago Agustin Tirante 02.08.2026–07.10.2026, Facundo Diaz Acosta 27.07.2026–12.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
Tirante leads 3-1
| 2025 | TiranteCosta do Sauipe CH · Clay · R16 | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025 | TiranteTrieste CH · Clay · SF | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024 | AcostaCordoba · Clay · R16 | 6-2 6-7(5) 6-2 |
| 2023 | TiranteVina Del Mar CH · Clay · R32 | 6-1 4-3 RET |
Who do others back in Tirante vs Acosta?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Tirante, 71.9% | Same side |
| Dimers | Tirante, 70% | Same side |
| Tennis Tonic | Tirante in two sets | Same side |
Tirante vs Acosta predicted score
Tirante in two sets
Tirante puts only 54% of his first serves in, so tie-breaks are possible, but he wins almost 80% of the points when it lands. Diaz Acosta’s return numbers come mostly from clay Challengers and should drop indoors. We expect 7:6, 6:4. A 2:1 Tirante win still wins the bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 7:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:3
Our Tirante vs Acosta pick: Thiago Agustin Tirante win
Tirante to win the match
Facundo Diaz Acosta has won 48 matches on clay this season and one on hard courts, from six; his season titles all came on clay, and he arrives on a three-match losing run. Thiago Agustin Tirante, the eighth seed, is 15-11 on hard courts and beat Novak Djokovic and Jakub Mensik in Cincinnati this summer. Indoors in Almaty his serve matters: 10.2 aces a match and 79.9% of first-serve points won over his last ten matches with stats. All three models and previews we checked back Tirante. We expect two sets; a win in three also wins the bet.
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Tirante’s fitness before the match, or his price moving above 1.45.
What could beat our pick?
- Tirante lost two of his last ten matches as the favourite: to Jan-Lennard Struff in Beijing and to Adrian Mannarino at the US Open from two sets up.
- He wins only 13.4% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, so sets can go to tie-breaks.
- The official court and order of play were not yet published when we wrote this.
Bet
We back Tirante to win the match: Diaz Acosta, a clay-court specialist, is 1-5 on hard courts this season and has lost his last three matches.