Single · No. 123 · 20 OCTWon
New Jersey vs Colorado
- 01New Jersey vs ColoradoNew Jersey +1.51.38 · Won
- Total odds
- 1.38
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- +0.38 units
- Our estimate
- 64–69%
Published 20 OCT 05:55
Odds: average of 10 popular bookmakers, 20 OCT 06:0718+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 10 popular bookmakers, 20 OCT 06:0718+Play responsibly
Why this betAn NHL single: New Jersey +1.5 at home to Colorado, overtime and shootout included. Colorado play the second night of a back-to-back after a 2:3 defeat in Philadelphia on Monday, their fourth game in seven days, while New Jersey have had three days of rest. We do not pick the winner here, we pick a close game: DRatings, which favours Colorado, still projects a gap of about one goal.
Leg 1 · Hockey · USA · NHL · 21 OCT · 00:00 UK
New Jersey vs Colorado
New Jersey +1.51.38Won
Why this pickNew Jersey outshoot opponents 35.0 to 25.0 a game this season, and three of Colorado's last five games were decided by one goal. Colorado's expected starter on the second night is Scott Wedgewood (.921 last season), so the risk sits in New Jersey's goal: Nico Daws, expected, has saved .857 in three starts. Any New Jersey win, any overtime and a one-goal Colorado win count.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 2:3
- Our estimate · New Jersey +1.5
- 64–69%
Form · New Jersey 3-2 in their last 5. Colorado 2-3.
New Jersey3-2
- Lossvs Washington2:4
- Winvs NY Rangers7:1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Detroit5:4 OT
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Winvs Vancouver4:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Colorado2-3
- Lossvs Philadelphia2:3
- Winvs Pittsburgh5:2
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:3 SO
- Winvs Dallas3:2
- Lossvs Toronto3:6
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Lineups · Expected
- New Jersey
- DoubtAnthony ManthaDay-to-day
- OutConnor BrownInjured reserve
- OutNick BjugstadPectoral, long-term injured reserve
- OutSeamus CaseyKnee procedure, out 6 to 8 weeks
- Colorado
- OutLogan O'ConnorLower body, injured reserve; expected back on Friday
- OutNicolas RoyUnavailable
- OutZachary L'HeureuxUnavailable
- OutGeorgii MerkulovUndisclosed, non-roster injured reserve
What others predict · Consensus 1 of 1
Our positionDRatings sees Colorado as the better team, and so do we: last season they took 73.8% of the points to New Jersey's 53.0%. The line is closer, about 50/50 on the winner, because it already prices in the back-to-back. We do not pick the winner. We pick the margin: DRatings projects a gap of about one goal, and a one-goal Colorado win still takes New Jersey +1.5. In our backtest of the rules, the home side +1.5 against an away favourite on the second night of a back-to-back came in about 69% of the time. Dimers had not posted this game and we could not check MoneyPuck.
Scenario & score
Rested New Jersey against a visitor on its second night. 2:3 is our main score: a tight game decided late. New Jersey take 35.0 shots a game this season against 25.0, and fresh legs should keep them in it in the third period, when the second night of a back-to-back usually tells. 3:2 to New Jersey is the alternative. The risk is Colorado's class turning into a two-goal win: they score 4.22 goals a game and New Jersey kill only 69.6% of penalties. Any New Jersey win, any overtime and a one-goal Colorado win take the bet; a Colorado win by two or more beats it.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01Daws has saved .857 in three starts this season, the weakest goalie in the game.
- 02Wedgewood saved .921 last season, so Colorado's back-to-back costs them little in goal.
- 03DRatings gives Colorado 59.1% and projects 3.74 to 2.76.
- 04New Jersey's penalty kill is 69.6% this season, and an empty-net goal can turn a one-goal game into two.
Key factNew Jersey are 3-2 in their last five: 4:1 over Vancouver, 1:4 to Ottawa, 5:4 in overtime in Detroit, 7:1 over the Rangers and 2:4 in Washington on Saturday. Colorado are 2-3 in their last five: 3:6 to Toronto, a 3:2 win in Dallas, a shootout defeat to Dallas the next night, 5:2 over Pittsburgh and 2:3 in Philadelphia on Monday. Three of Colorado's last five games were decided by one goal.
Full match analysis