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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Newark
New JerseyvsColorado New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche · hockey prediction
Score
4:3
Date · UK
21 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 20 OCT
City
Newark
Status
Full time
NJD4:3COLFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win New Jersey vs Colorado?
Our Devils vs Avalanche prediction: the New Jersey Devils +1.5 against the Colorado Avalanche at the Prudential Center, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 2:3. Colorado play the second night of a back-to-back after a 2:3 defeat in Philadelphia on Monday, while New Jersey have had three days of rest. Any New Jersey win, any game that goes to overtime and a one-goal Colorado win all take the bet. Nico Daws and Scott Wedgewood are the expected goalies; neither is confirmed yet.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 2:3
- Our estimate
- 64–69%
- Market
- New Jersey +1.5
- Price now
- 1.38
New Jersey vs Colorado at a glance
| Match | New Jersey Devils vs Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 00:00 UK |
| Venue | Prudential Center, Newark |
| Our pick | New Jersey +1.5 · 1.38 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–69% |
| Predicted score | 2:3 |
| Main reason | Colorado play their second game in two nights after a 2:3 defeat in Philadelphia, their fourth game in seven days, while New Jersey have had three days of rest. |
No. 04 · Form
New Jersey vs Colorado: recent form
New Jersey 3-2 in their last 5. Colorado 2-3.
- New Jersey
- Lost 2:4 in Washington on Sat 17 Oct · three days of rest · 318 km trip home · first home game after a road game
- Colorado
- Lost 2:3 in Philadelphia on Mon 19 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 126 km trip · fourth game in seven days
New Jersey3-2
- Lossvs Washington2:4
- Winvs NY Rangers7:1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Detroit5:4 OT
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Winvs Vancouver4:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Colorado2-3
- Lossvs Philadelphia2:3
- Winvs Pittsburgh5:2
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Dallas2:3 SO
- Winvs Dallas3:2
- Lossvs Toronto3:6
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Key factNew Jersey are 3-2 in their last five: 4:1 over Vancouver, 1:4 to Ottawa, 5:4 in overtime in Detroit, 7:1 over the Rangers and 2:4 in Washington on Saturday. Colorado are 2-3 in their last five: 3:6 to Toronto, a 3:2 win in Dallas, a shootout defeat to Dallas the next night, 5:2 over Pittsburgh and 2:3 in Philadelphia on Monday. Three of Colorado's last five games were decided by one goal.
| Attack & defence | NJD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 4-4-0 | 5-3-1 |
| Points % | 50.0% | 61.1% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.25 | +1.22 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.13 | 4.22 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 3.38 | 3.00 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 35.0 | 30.2 |
| Shots against | 25.0 | 25.8 |
| Special teams | NJD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 69.6% | 81.8% |
| Last season | NJD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 42-37-3 | 55-16-11 |
| Points % | 53.0% | 73.8% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.29 | +1.21 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.6 | 33.7 |
| Shots against | 27.4 | 26.1 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 22.0% | 17.1% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 79.3% | 84.6% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
New Jersey vs Colorado: starting goalies and team news
Daws and Wedgewood expected; Colorado on the second night of a back-to-back.
New JerseyExpected
Nico Daws- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .857
- Starts
- 3
- SV% last season
- .908
- NHL career starts
- 53
ColoradoExpected
Scott Wedgewood- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .902
- Starts
- 2
- SV% last season
- .921
- SV% 3 seasons
- .916
- NHL career starts
- 181
New Jersey
- DoubtAnthony ManthaDay-to-day
- OutConnor BrownInjured reserve
- OutNick BjugstadPectoral, long-term injured reserve
- OutSeamus CaseyKnee procedure, out 6 to 8 weeks
Colorado
- OutLogan O'ConnorLower body, injured reserve; expected back on Friday
- OutNicolas RoyUnavailable
- OutZachary L'HeureuxUnavailable
- OutGeorgii MerkulovUndisclosed, non-roster injured reserve
TacticsDaily Faceoff projects Nico Daws for New Jersey and Scott Wedgewood for Colorado, both unconfirmed when we checked at 04:50 UTC on 20 October. Wedgewood is the logical choice on the second night: Mackenzie Blackwood played in Philadelphia, and Wedgewood saved .921 in 43 starts last season, .916 over three seasons, so Colorado lose little in goal. Daws is the weaker goalie of the night, .857 in three starts this season, and the projection does not say why Jake Allen sits after starting in Washington. New Jersey are without Connor Brown (injured reserve), Nick Bjugstad (long-term injured reserve) and Seamus Casey (knee, 6 to 8 weeks); Anthony Mantha is day-to-day. Colorado miss Logan O'Connor, who is due back on Friday, Nicolas Roy, Zachary L'Heureux and Georgii Merkulov. Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report; we did not find a second source.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in New Jersey vs Colorado?
The one model we found backs Colorado, by about one goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Colorado 59.1%, projected 3.74 to 2.76 | Other side |
Our positionDRatings sees Colorado as the better team, and so do we: last season they took 73.8% of the points to New Jersey's 53.0%. The line is closer, about 50/50 on the winner, because it already prices in the back-to-back. We do not pick the winner. We pick the margin: DRatings projects a gap of about one goal, and a one-goal Colorado win still takes New Jersey +1.5. In our backtest of the rules, the home side +1.5 against an away favourite on the second night of a back-to-back came in about 69% of the time. Dimers had not posted this game and we could not check MoneyPuck.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
New Jersey vs Colorado predicted score
Rested New Jersey against a visitor on its second night.
2:3 is our main score: a tight game decided late. New Jersey take 35.0 shots a game this season against 25.0, and fresh legs should keep them in it in the third period, when the second night of a back-to-back usually tells. 3:2 to New Jersey is the alternative. The risk is Colorado's class turning into a two-goal win: they score 4.22 goals a game and New Jersey kill only 69.6% of penalties. Any New Jersey win, any overtime and a one-goal Colorado win take the bet; a Colorado win by two or more beats it.
- Predicted score
- 2:3
- Alternative
- 3:2
Your score
NJD
COL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our New Jersey vs Colorado pick: New Jersey +1.5
New Jersey +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Colorado play their second game in two nights after a 2:3 defeat in Philadelphia, their fourth game in seven days, while New Jersey have had three days of rest. New Jersey outshoot opponents 35.0 to 25.0 this season, and three of Colorado's last five games were decided by one goal. With overtime included, New Jersey +1.5 wins with any home win, any game that reaches overtime and a one-goal Colorado win, the close results we see as most likely.
Our probability64–69%
Our pickNew Jersey +1.5
Odds1.38
Main scenario2:3
- Wins with
- 3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
- Loses with
- 2:41:30:2…
- Our scenario
- 2:3alternative 3:2
What would change our mind Jake Allen confirmed in New Jersey's goal would make us more sure; a goalie called up from the AHL instead of Daws would have kept this game out of a bet.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey win · incl. OT | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Colorado win · incl. OT | 1.88 | 53.2% |
| New Jersey win in 60 min | 2.50 | 40% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.14 | 24.2% |
| Colorado win in 60 min | 2.37 | 42.2% |
| New Jersey +1.5 | 1.38 | 72.5% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.72 | 58.1% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 06:07 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Daws has saved .857 in three starts this season, the weakest goalie in the game.
- Wedgewood saved .921 last season, so Colorado's back-to-back costs them little in goal.
- DRatings gives Colorado 59.1% and projects 3.74 to 2.76.
- New Jersey's penalty kill is 69.6% this season, and an empty-net goal can turn a one-goal game into two.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet New Jersey +1.5 at 1.38, a single. Overtime and the shootout count: any New Jersey win or a one-goal Colorado win takes it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · New Jersey +1.5 at 1.38
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:3Bet at 1.38
- Happened
- 4:3New Jersey win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.