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Single · No. 120 · 20 OCTWon

Khachanov vs Sakamoto

  1. 01Karen Khachanov vs Rei SakamotoKaren Khachanov win1.40 · Won
Total odds
1.40
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
+0.40 units
Our estimate
66–70%
Published 20 OCT 06:0118+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on Karen Khachanov to beat the qualifier Rei Sakamoto in the first round of the Almaty Open. Khachanov, ranked 25, won this title in 2024, reached the US Open semi-finals in September and has won seven of his last ten. Sakamoto, ranked 124, is in form: he beat Andrey Rublev in Shanghai and won two qualifying matches here, the last in three sets against Gabriel Diallo.
Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · 20 OCT · 15:30 UK

Karen Khachanov vs Rei Sakamoto

Karen Khachanov win1.40Won
Why this pickThe line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model all give Khachanov 68–69%. Over their last ten tour matches with stats both held serve about 87% of the time, but Khachanov won 24.3% of his return games against Sakamoto’s 18.7%. Khachanov comes in after a week of rest; Sakamoto has played two matches here already. The risk: Sakamoto has won four of his last five, and Khachanov is 23-15 as a favourite this season. We expect 7:6, 6:4; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
66–70%

Form · Khachanov has won seven of his last ten; Sakamoto beat Andrey Rublev in Shanghai and came through qualifying here

Karen KhachanovLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Bonzi B. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
  2. Won v Tien L. 7-5, 4-6, 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-4
  3. Won v Blockx A. 6-2, 7-5, 3-2 ret.
  4. Lost to Zverev A. 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6)
  5. Won v Auger Aliassime F. 6-3, 6-3
  6. Won v Molcan A. 7-5, 6-3
  7. Lost to Hurkacz H. 7-6(2), 6-2
  8. Won v Fery A. 7-6(6), 6(5)-7, 7-6(2)
  9. Won v Mannarino A. 6-2, 6-4
  10. Lost to De Minaur A. 6-3, 6-4
Rei SakamotoLast 10: 7-3
  1. Lost to Nam J. 7-6(3), 6-4
  2. Won v Shepp A. 7-5, 6-4
  3. Lost to Arnaldi M. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
  4. Won v Hong S. 6-3, 7-5
  5. Won v Jacquet K. 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(8)
  6. Won v Trungelliti M. 6-3, 7-5
  7. Won v Rublev A. 6-4, 6-4
  8. Lost to De Minaur A. 7-6(6), 6-4
  9. Won v Omarkhanov A. 6-2, 6-1
  10. Won v Diallo G. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4

Stats comparison

StatKhachanovSakamoto
On hard courts18-1429-16
Last 10 matches7-37-3
Service games held87.1%86.8%
Return games won24.3%18.7%

Our scenario

7:6, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Khachanov in two sets. Both serve well: over their last ten tour matches with stats Khachanov held 87.1% of his service games and Sakamoto 86.8%, with 9.5 aces a match. The gap is on return: Khachanov won 24.3% of his return games and converted 48.6% of his break points, Sakamoto 18.7% and 39.0%. Expect few breaks and at least one tie-break; we see 7:6, 6:4 Khachanov, with three sets the alternative.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Sakamoto is in form: four wins in his last five, including 6:4, 6:4 over Andrey Rublev in Shanghai.
  2. 02Khachanov is 23-15 as a favourite this season, a win rate of about 61%.
  3. 03The match is not before 7:30 PM local time, after a concert on Center Court, so the start can slip.
Khachanov this autumnHe reached the US Open semi-finals, where he lost to Alexander Zverev. In Beijing he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6:3, 6:3 and lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals; in Shanghai he beat Arthur Fery and Adrian Mannarino, then lost to Alex de Minaur 3:6, 4:6 on 13 October.
Full match analysis