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Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · First round · Indoor hard

Karen KhachanovvsRei Sakamoto prediction · Almaty Open 2026

Date
20 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Fourth match on court, not before 7:30 PM, not before 19:30 local (15:30 UK)
Status
6:2 6:4
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Khachanov vs Sakamoto?

Karen Khachanov plays the qualifier Rei Sakamoto in the first round of the Almaty Open on Tuesday evening. Our bet: Khachanov to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
66–70%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Karen Khachanov win
Odds at publish
1.39
Set by set
7:6, 6:4
Not before (UK)
15:30

Khachanov vs Sakamoto at a glance

MatchKaren Khachanov vs Rei Sakamoto
TournamentATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · First round
SurfaceIndoor hard
Start20 OCT · 15:30 UK · 19:30 local
CourtCenter Court · Fourth match on court, not before 7:30 PM
Our pickKaren Khachanov win · 1.39 · bet
Our estimate66–70%
Predicted score2:0 (7:6, 6:4)
Main reasonWe back Khachanov because every number we trust agrees: the line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model all give him 68–69%, and none of our warning flags is on.
No. 02 · Form

Khachanov vs Sakamoto: recent form

Khachanov has won seven of his last ten; Sakamoto beat Andrey Rublev in Shanghai and came through qualifying here

Karen KhachanovLast 10: 7-3
  1. Won v Bonzi B. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
  2. Won v Tien L. 7-5, 4-6, 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-4
  3. Won v Blockx A. 6-2, 7-5, 3-2 ret.
  4. Lost to Zverev A. 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6)
  5. Won v Auger Aliassime F. 6-3, 6-3
  6. Won v Molcan A. 7-5, 6-3
  7. Lost to Hurkacz H. 7-6(2), 6-2
  8. Won v Fery A. 7-6(6), 6(5)-7, 7-6(2)
  9. Won v Mannarino A. 6-2, 6-4
  10. Lost to De Minaur A. 6-3, 6-4
Rei SakamotoLast 10: 7-3
  1. Lost to Nam J. 7-6(3), 6-4
  2. Won v Shepp A. 7-5, 6-4
  3. Lost to Arnaldi M. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
  4. Won v Hong S. 6-3, 7-5
  5. Won v Jacquet K. 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(8)
  6. Won v Trungelliti M. 6-3, 7-5
  7. Won v Rublev A. 6-4, 6-4
  8. Lost to De Minaur A. 7-6(6), 6-4
  9. Won v Omarkhanov A. 6-2, 6-1
  10. Won v Diallo G. 2-6, 6-4, 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Karen Khachanov
Lost toDe Minaur A.Shanghai · 13.10.266-3, 6-4
Won vMannarino A.Shanghai · 11.10.266-2, 6-4
Won vFery A.Shanghai · 09.10.267-6(6), 6(5)-7, 7-6(2)
Lost toHurkacz H.Beijing · 04.10.267-6(2), 6-2
Won vMolcan A.Beijing · 02.10.267-5, 6-3
Won vAuger Aliassime F.Beijing · 30.09.266-3, 6-3
Lost toZverev A.US Open · 11.09.266-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6)
Won vBlockx A.US Open · 09.09.266-2, 7-5, 3-2 ret.
Won vTien L.US Open · 07.09.267-5, 4-6, 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-4
Won vBonzi B.US Open · 05.09.266-3, 6-2, 6-4
Rei Sakamoto
Won vDiallo G.Almaty · 18.10.262-6, 6-4, 6-4
Won vOmarkhanov A.Almaty · 17.10.266-2, 6-1
Lost toDe Minaur A.Shanghai · 11.10.267-6(6), 6-4
Won vRublev A.Shanghai · 09.10.266-4, 6-4
Won vTrungelliti M.Shanghai · 07.10.266-3, 7-5
Won vJacquet K.Shanghai · 06.10.267-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(8)
Won vHong S.Shanghai · 05.10.266-3, 7-5
Lost toArnaldi M.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 30.09.262-6, 6-4, 6-4
Won vShepp A.Davis Cup · 19.09.267-5, 6-4
Lost toNam J.Shanghai challenger · 08.09.267-6(3), 6-4
Khachanov this autumnHe reached the US Open semi-finals, where he lost to Alexander Zverev. In Beijing he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6:3, 6:3 and lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals; in Shanghai he beat Arthur Fery and Adrian Mannarino, then lost to Alex de Minaur 3:6, 4:6 on 13 October.
No. 03 · Context

The 2024 Almaty champion against a Japanese qualifier in the first round

Sakamoto this autumn
In Shanghai he came through qualifying, beat Marco Trungelliti and Andrey Rublev 6:4, 6:4, then lost to Alex de Minaur 6:7(6), 4:6. In Almaty qualifying he beat Amir Omarkhanov 6:2, 6:1 and Gabriel Diallo 2:6, 6:4, 6:4 on Sunday.
Season and surface
Khachanov is 27-23 this season, 18-14 on hard courts and 23-15 as a favourite. Sakamoto is 41-24, mostly at Challenger level, and 29-16 on hard courts.
History in Almaty
Khachanov won the Almaty Open in 2024, beating Gabriel Diallo in the final. The two have never met on tour.
Rest
Khachanov has had a week off since Shanghai. Sakamoto played two qualifying matches here, the second in three sets, and rested on Monday.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Khachanov won 24.3% of his return games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Sakamoto 18.7%

StatKhachanovSakamoto
Season record27-2341-24 (better)
On hard courts18-1429-16 (better)
Last 10 matches7-37-3
As favourite23-1533-11 (better)
As underdog4-78-13 (better)
StatKhachanovSakamoto
Matches (W-L)10 (7-3)10 (6-4)
Aces per match8.19.5 (better)
Double faults per match2.41.7 (better)
1st serve in63.6%64.1% (better)
1st serve points won76.4% (better)75.9%
2nd serve points won53.4%53.4%
Service games held87.1% (better)86.8%
Break points saved61.7% (better)60.0%
StatKhachanovSakamoto
Return points won36.7% (better)34.2%
Return games won24.3% (better)18.7%
Break points converted48.6% (better)39.0%

Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Karen Khachanov 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Rei Sakamoto 31.08.2026–19.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.

First meeting

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Khachanov vs Sakamoto?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
DimersKhachanov, 69%Same side
Tennis AbstractKhachanov, 67.9%Same side
Our position2 of 2 back Khachanov. We are on Khachanov’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Khachanov vs Sakamoto predicted score

Khachanov in two sets

Both serve well: over their last ten tour matches with stats Khachanov held 87.1% of his service games and Sakamoto 86.8%, with 9.5 aces a match. The gap is on return: Khachanov won 24.3% of his return games and converted 48.6% of his break points, Sakamoto 18.7% and 39.0%. Expect few breaks and at least one tie-break; we see 7:6, 6:4 Khachanov, with three sets the alternative.

Predicted score
2:0
7:6, 6:4
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 6:7, 6:4
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Khachanov vs Sakamoto pick: Karen Khachanov win

Khachanov to win the match

Why we back it

We back Khachanov because every number we trust agrees: the line, our fresh Elo calculation and the Dimers model all give him 68–69%, and none of our warning flags is on. He won this title in 2024, has had a week of rest since Shanghai and has won seven of his last ten, including straight-set wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Adrian Mannarino.

Our probability66–70%
Our pickKaren Khachanov win
Odds1.39
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
7:6, 6:42:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 6:7, 6:42:1 in sets

What would change our mind Any news about Khachanov’s fitness before the match.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Sakamoto is in form: four wins in his last five, including 6:4, 6:4 over Andrey Rublev in Shanghai.
  2. Khachanov is 23-15 as a favourite this season, a win rate of about 61%.
  3. The match is not before 7:30 PM local time, after a concert on Center Court, so the start can slip.
No. 10 · Our call

Bet

We back Khachanov to win the match: he won this title in 2024, has won seven of his last ten, and the qualifier Sakamoto is ranked 124.

Bet
Karen Khachanov win
Odds at publish
1.39 · 20 OCT 05:53 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly