Single: Knicks vs 76ers — odds 1.54

Why this betA single on the New York Knicks to beat the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden on NBA opening night, overtime included. The champions start the season with the same starting five and nobody on the official injury report; Philadelphia's rebuilt roster with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown has yet to play a game that counts.

Leg 1 · Basketball · USA · NBA · 21 OCT · 00:00 UK

Knicks vs 76ers

Knicks win1.54Lost

Why this pickLast regular season the Knicks had a +6.4 point difference per game, Philadelphia -0.2, and in May New York swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round before winning the title. The NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET lists no Knicks player; for Philadelphia, Barlow, Fall and Hukporti are out and Simons, Bona and Wade are questionable. Dimers gives New York 62.9% and Sports Mole expects 116:106. The risk: ESPN's BPI, which rates the new roster, has the Knicks at only 53.1%, and Philadelphia won the preseason meeting 120:97. That is why we take the win, not the −4.5 handicap. We expect 116:108.

Predicted score · alt 110:112: 116:108
Our estimate · Knicks win: 60–64%

Form · Knicks 1-4 in their last 5. Philadelphia 1-3.

Knicks1-4

Winvs Toronto122:120
Lossvs Toronto98:148
Lossvs Minnesota104:122
Lossvs Washington109:111
Lossvs Philadelphia97:120

: 106.0
: 124.2
: 230.2
: −18.2

Philadelphia1-3

Lossvs Boston120:125
Lossvs Boston106:144
Lossvs Brooklyn108:114
Winvs Knicks120:97

: 113.5
: 120.0
: 233.5
: −6.5

Lineups · Expected

Knicks
No absences reported.

Philadelphia
OutDominick BarlowLow back stress reaction
OutTacko FallLeft quadriceps strain
OutAriel HukportiTorn right Achilles tendon
QuestionableAnfernee SimonsLeft hamstring tightness
QuestionableAdem BonaLeft foot sprain
QuestionableDean WadeLeft ankle sprain

What others predict · Consensus 4 of 5

Our positionWe agree with the majority on the winner. ESPN's BPI, which rates the new rosters, gives New York only 53.1%, and that is the main warning; the line has the Knicks at about 62%, close to our 60 to 64%. We take the win, not the −4.5 handicap, because a Knicks win by one to four points is a realistic outcome.

Scenario & score

Brunson and Towns against a defence that has never played a real game together. 116:108 to New York is our main score: Brunson and Towns attack a Philadelphia defence that has not played a regular-season minute together, the Knicks' rotation is complete, and the 76ers have Simons and Wade questionable off the bench. 110:112 to Philadelphia is the alternative: Embiid is healthy, LeBron and Brown score 60 between them, and the Knicks lose focus after the ring ceremony. The pick wins with any Knicks win, overtime included, and loses with a 76ers win.

Arguing against ourselves

01ESPN's BPI, which accounts for the new roster, gives the Knicks only 53.1%; our own rating card still sees last season's 76ers, without LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.
02Philadelphia beat New York 120:97 in preseason on 5 Oct, and the Knicks finished preseason 1-4.
03With Embiid, Maxey, LeBron and Brown, the 76ers have one of the highest ceilings in the league for a single game, and the first game of a season is the hardest to read.
04Champions do not always win on ring night; we have no numbers on it, so we treat it as a risk, not as a factor.

Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game for both teams. In preseason the Knicks went 1-4 and the 76ers 1-3, and Philadelphia won the 5 Oct meeting 120:97, with the New York starters on the floor for 13 to 15 minutes. The games that counted came in May: the Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round, winning game 4 144:114, and then beat San Antonio 4-1 in the Finals. Last regular season New York were 53-29 with a +6.4 point difference per game; Philadelphia were 45-37 and -0.2.

Full match analysis