New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers basketball prediction

No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Knicks vs Philadelphia?

Our Knicks vs 76ers prediction for NBA opening night: New York beat Philadelphia at Madison Square Garden, 116:108, overtime included. The champions raise their banner before tip-off with the starting five that won the title, and the official NBA injury report lists nobody for New York. Philadelphia added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in the summer, but the new group has not played a game that counts, and three of their players are questionable. We back the Knicks to win, a single.

Predicted score · alt 110:112: 116:108
Our estimate: 60–64%

Knicks win · odds 1.54Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Knicks win
Price now: 1.54

Knicks vs Philadelphia at a glance

Match	New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers
Competition	NBA · Regular season
Kick-off	21 OCT · 00:00 UK
Venue	Madison Square Garden, New York
Our pick	Knicks win · 1.54 · bet
Our estimate	60–64%
Predicted score	116:108
Main reason	We think the champions win at home with the same starting five and a clean injury report.

No. 04 · Form

Knicks vs Philadelphia: recent form

Knicks 1-4 in their last 5. Philadelphia 1-3.

Knicks: First game of the season · last preseason game on Thu 15 Oct, five days ago · ring night at home
Philadelphia: First game of the season · last preseason game on Fri 16 Oct, four days ago · short trip from Philadelphia

Knicks1-4

Winvs Toronto122:120
Lossvs Toronto98:148
Lossvs Minnesota104:122
Lossvs Washington109:111
Lossvs Philadelphia97:120

: 106.0
: 124.2
: 230.2
: −18.2

Philadelphia1-3

Lossvs Boston120:125
Lossvs Boston106:144
Lossvs Brooklyn108:114
Winvs Knicks120:97

: 113.5
: 120.0
: 233.5
: −6.5

Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game for both teams. In preseason the Knicks went 1-4 and the 76ers 1-3, and Philadelphia won the 5 Oct meeting 120:97, with the New York starters on the floor for 13 to 15 minutes. The games that counted came in May: the Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round, winning game 4 144:114, and then beat San Antonio 4-1 in the Finals. Last regular season New York were 53-29 with a +6.4 point difference per game; Philadelphia were 45-37 and -0.2.

Last season	NYK	PHI
	53-29	45-37
Points for per game	116.5	115.9
Points against per game	110.1	116.1
Point difference per game	+6.4	-0.2
	118.7	114.3
	112.3	114.4
Conference seed	3	7

NBA 2025-26 regular season · ESPN standings; offensive and defensive ratings from Sports Mole

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Knicks vs Philadelphia injury report

Nobody on the Knicks' injury report; three 76ers out and three questionable.

Knicks

No absences reported.

Philadelphia

OutDominick BarlowLow back stress reaction
OutTacko FallLeft quadriceps strain
OutAriel HukportiTorn right Achilles tendon
QuestionableAnfernee SimonsLeft hamstring tightness
QuestionableAdem BonaLeft foot sprain
QuestionableDean WadeLeft ankle sprain

TacticsThe official NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET on 20 Oct lists no Knicks player. Josh Hart missed the last preseason game with an ankle problem but is not on the report, and coach Mike Brown said he expects no issues. For Philadelphia, Dominick Barlow (lower back), Tacko Fall (quadriceps) and Ariel Hukporti (torn Achilles) are out; Anfernee Simons (hamstring), Adem Bona (foot) and Dean Wade (ankle) are questionable. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe are not on the report, so all five are available. New York started Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns in the preseason game against Philadelphia; the official starting lineups come shortly before tip-off.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 5

Who do others back in Knicks vs Philadelphia?

Three of four previews back New York; ESPN's model calls it close.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Dimers	Knicks win, 62.9%	Same side
Sports Mole	Knicks 116:106, and New York −5.5	Same side
Covers	Knicks −4.5 (opening-night preview of 11 Aug)	Same side
TheLines	76ers win: LeBron spoils the ring night (30 Sep)	Other side
ESPN BPI	Knicks 53.1%	Same side

Our positionWe agree with the majority on the winner. ESPN's BPI, which rates the new rosters, gives New York only 53.1%, and that is the main warning; the line has the Knicks at about 62%, close to our 60 to 64%. We take the win, not the −4.5 handicap, because a Knicks win by one to four points is a realistic outcome.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Knicks vs Philadelphia predicted score

Brunson and Towns against a defence that has never played a real game together.

116:108 to New York is our main score: Brunson and Towns attack a Philadelphia defence that has not played a regular-season minute together, the Knicks' rotation is complete, and the 76ers have Simons and Wade questionable off the bench. 110:112 to Philadelphia is the alternative: Embiid is healthy, LeBron and Brown score 60 between them, and the Knicks lose focus after the ring ceremony. The pick wins with any Knicks win, overtime included, and loses with a 76ers win.

Predicted score: 116:108
Alternative: 110:112

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Knicks vs Philadelphia pick: Knicks win

Knicks win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think the champions win at home with the same starting five and a clean injury report. The Knicks had a +6.4 point difference per game last season against Philadelphia's -0.2, and they swept the 76ers 4-0 in May. Philadelphia have more stars than a year ago but no games together yet, and three players questionable. The risk is Embiid and LeBron clicking at once, which is why we take the win, not the handicap.

Our probability60–64%

Our pickKnicks win

Odds1.54

Main scenario116:108

Our scenario: 116:108alternative 110:112

What would change our mind Brunson or Towns appearing on the injury report before tip-off, or the line moving three points or more towards Philadelphia.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Knicks win	1.54	64.9%
Philadelphia win	2.46	40.7%
Knicks −4.5	1.83	54.6%
Philadelphia +4.5	1.84	54.3%
Over 231.5 points	1.87	53.5%
Under 231.5 points	1.90	52.6%

Odds snapshot 20 OCT 06:07 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

The case for Philadelphia.

ESPN's BPI, which accounts for the new roster, gives the Knicks only 53.1%; our own rating card still sees last season's 76ers, without LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.
Philadelphia beat New York 120:97 in preseason on 5 Oct, and the Knicks finished preseason 1-4.
With Embiid, Maxey, LeBron and Brown, the 76ers have one of the highest ceilings in the league for a single game, and the first game of a season is the hardest to read.
Champions do not always win on ring night; we have no numbers on it, so we treat it as a risk, not as a factor.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Knicks win at 1.54, a single.

Market: Knicks win
Odds: 1.54
Published: 20 OCT 06:10

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

06:10Prediction published · Knicks win at 1.54

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 116:108Bet at 1.54
Happened: 100:106Philadelphia win

Lost

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

KnicksvsPhiladelphia New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers · basketball prediction