Single: Liverpool vs Villarreal

Why this betA single on Liverpool at home to Villarreal in the Champions League. Liverpool have won both group games, 2:1 against Atlético Madrid and 6:3 at LASK, and Anfield makes them clear favourites. Villarreal create chances and may score, but we expect Liverpool to win it.

Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 20 OCT · 20:00 UK

Liverpool vs Villarreal

Liverpool win1.49Won

Why this pickLiverpool have won both Champions League games and play at Anfield, where the prices make them a clear favourite. Szoboszlai and Frimpong are out after injuries at Brentford, but the squad that won 6:3 at LASK has depth. Villarreal create 2.49 expected goals a game in LaLiga and beat Napoli 3:1 last week, so a goal for them is possible; our score is 2:1, and the 2:0 both previews predict also wins.

Predicted score · alt 2:0: 2:1
Our estimate · Liverpool win: 64–67%

Form · Liverpool 12 from 15. Villarreal 10 from 15.

Liverpool12 pts

Winvs Brentford2:1
Winvs LASK6:3
Lossvs Manchester City0:3
Winvs Bournemouth1:0
Winvs Tottenham3:1

: 2.40
: 1.60
: 80%
: 60%

Villarreal10 pts

Drawvs Elche0:0
Winvs Napoli3:1
Lossvs Real Madrid0:1
Winvs Levante3:1
Winvs Málaga3:1

: 1.80
: 0.80
: 60%
: 60%

Lineups · Expected

Liverpool
OutDominik SzoboszlaiRecurrence of a muscle injury
OutJeremie FrimpongMuscle injury
OutHugo EkitikeInjured
OutConor BradleyInjured
OutGiovanni LeoniInjured
OutFederico ChiesaNot in the Champions League squad
OutWataru EndoNot in the Champions League squad

Villarreal
OutNicolas PépéEye injury
DoubtTajon BuchananHamstring, back in training; sources differ

What others predict · Consensus 2 of 2

Our positionSports Mole and SI both pick 2:0 to Liverpool, so on the winner we agree with them. On the goals we do not: Villarreal have scored in seven of their last ten games and make 2.49 expected goals a game in LaLiga, and Liverpool are missing two starters, so we expect a Villarreal goal.

Scenario & score

Liverpool win it, Villarreal find a goal. Liverpool should have more of the ball at Anfield, with Isak, who has five goals this season in under 600 minutes (SI), leading the line. Villarreal hit the target 6.0 times a game over their last ten, and Liverpool concede 1.34 expected goals a game in the Premier League (Understat) without Szoboszlai and Frimpong in the side. 2:1 is our main score and 2:0, as Sports Mole and SI predict, is the case that beats us. A Liverpool win takes the bet with 2:1, 2:0, 3:1 or any other home win, and loses with a draw or a Villarreal win.

Arguing against ourselves

01Liverpool kept three clean sheets in their last ten games.
02Sports Mole and SI both predict 2:0 to Liverpool.
03Villarreal failed to score in three of their last ten games, including 0:0 with Elche on Saturday.

Key factLiverpool came from behind to win 2:1 at Brentford on Saturday, after 6:3 at LASK, a 0:3 home defeat to Manchester City, 1:0 at Bournemouth and 3:1 against Tottenham in the cup. Over ten games they are 6-3-1 with 20 goals for and 13 against, and they kept three clean sheets. Villarreal drew 0:0 with Elche on Saturday after beating Napoli 3:1; before that they lost 0:1 at Real Madrid and beat Levante and Málaga 3:1. They are 12th in LaLiga with nine points (Sports Mole, SI), yet make 2.49 expected goals a game (Understat): SI calls their 13 league goals the biggest shortfall against chances in LaLiga. Both teams scored in six of Liverpool's last ten games and seven of Villarreal's. Liverpool have won three of the four competitive meetings, the last a 5:2 aggregate in the 2021-22 Champions League semi-final (SI).

Full match analysis