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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Liverpool
LiverpoolvsVillarreal prediction
Score
4:3
Date
20 OCT
City
Liverpool
Status
Full time
LIV4:3VILFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction is a Liverpool win, most likely 2:1, at Anfield on Tuesday (20:00 UK). Andoni Iraola's Liverpool have won both Champions League games, 2:1 against Atlético Madrid and 6:3 at LASK, but lost Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong to muscle injuries at Brentford on Saturday. Villarreal, coached by Iraola's former assistant Íñigo Pérez (SI), beat Napoli 3:1 last week and create far more than their results show. A Liverpool win is our bet for tonight.
- Predicted score · alt 2:0
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
- Market
- Liverpool win
- Price now
- 1.49
Liverpool vs Villarreal at a glance
| Match | Liverpool vs Villarreal |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 20 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Liverpool |
| Venue | Anfield, Liverpool |
| Our pick | Liverpool win · 1.49 · bet |
| Our estimate | 64–67% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | Liverpool have won both Champions League games, 2:1 against Atlético Madrid and 6:3 at LASK, and at Anfield they are the clear favourite. |
No. 04 · Form
Liverpool vs Villarreal: recent form
Liverpool 12 from 15. Villarreal 10 from 15.
Liverpool12 pts
- Winvs Brentford2:1
- Winvs LASK6:3
- Lossvs Manchester City0:3
- Winvs Bournemouth1:0
- Winvs Tottenham3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Villarreal10 pts
- Drawvs Elche0:0
- Winvs Napoli3:1
- Lossvs Real Madrid0:1
- Winvs Levante3:1
- Winvs Málaga3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factLiverpool came from behind to win 2:1 at Brentford on Saturday, after 6:3 at LASK, a 0:3 home defeat to Manchester City, 1:0 at Bournemouth and 3:1 against Tottenham in the cup. Over ten games they are 6-3-1 with 20 goals for and 13 against, and they kept three clean sheets. Villarreal drew 0:0 with Elche on Saturday after beating Napoli 3:1; before that they lost 0:1 at Real Madrid and beat Levante and Málaga 3:1. They are 12th in LaLiga with nine points (Sports Mole, SI), yet make 2.49 expected goals a game (Understat): SI calls their 13 league goals the biggest shortfall against chances in LaLiga. Both teams scored in six of Liverpool's last ten games and seven of Villarreal's. Liverpool have won three of the four competitive meetings, the last a 5:2 aggregate in the 2021-22 Champions League semi-final (SI).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Liverpool vs Villarreal team news
Liverpool without Szoboszlai and Frimpong; Villarreal without Pépé.
Liverpool
- OutDominik SzoboszlaiRecurrence of a muscle injury
- OutJeremie FrimpongMuscle injury
- OutHugo EkitikeInjured
- OutConor BradleyInjured
- OutGiovanni LeoniInjured
- OutFederico ChiesaNot in the Champions League squad
- OutWataru EndoNot in the Champions League squad
Villarreal
- OutNicolas PépéEye injury
- DoubtTajon BuchananHamstring, back in training; sources differ
TacticsSzoboszlai and Frimpong both went off at Brentford: Iraola called Frimpong's a new muscle injury and Szoboszlai's a recurrence of the problem that kept him out of two games before (Liverpool FC, Sports Mole). Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain out (Liverpool FC, SI), and Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are not in the Champions League squad. Ryan Gravenberch is available again after a Premier League ban. Villarreal are without Nicolas Pépé (eye; Liverpool FC, SI); Tajon Buchanan returned to training on Monday after a hamstring injury, according to Liverpool FC, while SI still lists him as out. Sports Mole expects Isak up front for Liverpool with Barcola, Wirtz and Gakpo behind him, and Moreno and Mikautadze in Villarreal's attack. Szymon Marciniak of Poland referees (UEFA).
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No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Two previews, both 2:0 to Liverpool.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Liverpool 2:0 Villarreal | Same side |
| SI | Liverpool 2:0 Villarreal | Same side |
Our positionSports Mole and SI both pick 2:0 to Liverpool, so on the winner we agree with them. On the goals we do not: Villarreal have scored in seven of their last ten games and make 2.49 expected goals a game in LaLiga, and Liverpool are missing two starters, so we expect a Villarreal goal.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Liverpool vs Villarreal predicted score
Liverpool win it, Villarreal find a goal.
Liverpool should have more of the ball at Anfield, with Isak, who has five goals this season in under 600 minutes (SI), leading the line. Villarreal hit the target 6.0 times a game over their last ten, and Liverpool concede 1.34 expected goals a game in the Premier League (Understat) without Szoboszlai and Frimpong in the side. 2:1 is our main score and 2:0, as Sports Mole and SI predict, is the case that beats us. A Liverpool win takes the bet with 2:1, 2:0, 3:1 or any other home win, and loses with a draw or a Villarreal win.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 2:0
Your score
LIV
VIL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Liverpool vs Villarreal pick: Liverpool win
Liverpool win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Liverpool have won both Champions League games, 2:1 against Atlético Madrid and 6:3 at LASK, and at Anfield they are the clear favourite. Villarreal make chances, 2.49 expected goals a game in LaLiga, so a goal for them is possible, but Liverpool create more at home. Szoboszlai and Frimpong are out, yet the side that beat LASK had depth to spare. On Saturday Villarreal could not score at home to Elche (0:0). Our score is 2:1, and 2:0, as both previews predict, also wins the bet.
Our probability64–67%
Our pickLiverpool win
Odds1.49
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 2:0
What would change our mind If Mikautadze or Moreno is not in Villarreal's starting line-up, we would drop both teams to score and keep only the score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 1.49 | 67.1% |
| Draw | 4.57 | 21.9% |
| Villarreal win | 5.65 | 17.7% |
| Liverpool or draw | 1.13 | 88.5% |
| Villarreal or draw | 2.53 | 39.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 63.7% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.35 | 42.6% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 08:48 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Villarreal could fail to score.
- Liverpool kept three clean sheets in their last ten games.
- Sports Mole and SI both predict 2:0 to Liverpool.
- Villarreal failed to score in three of their last ten games, including 0:0 with Elche on Saturday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Liverpool win at 1.49, a single. Any Liverpool win takes it; a draw or a Villarreal win loses it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Liverpool win, no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Liverpool win at 1.49 (earlier call: both teams to score, analysis only)
- Update: Villarreal drew 0:0 at home to Elche in LaLiga on 17 Oct (ESPN)
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.49
- Happened
- 4:3Liverpool win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.