Single: Marozsan vs Skatov — odds 1.29

Why this betA single on Fabian Marozsan to beat the home wild card Timofey Skatov in the first round of the Almaty Open. Marozsan, ranked 64, reached the quarter-finals in Hangzhou last month and has beaten Skatov in both their meetings. Skatov, ranked 201, plays most of his season at Challenger and ITF level and is 13-12 on hard courts this year.

Leg 1 · Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · 20 OCT · 07:30 UK

Fabian Marozsan vs Timofey Skatov

Fabian Marozsan win1.29Won

Why this pickOver their last ten tour-level matches with stats Marozsan held 80.8% of his service games and served 5.4 aces a match; Skatov held 77.5%. The Elo ratings give Marozsan 77.5%. Both arrive rested, Marozsan after twelve days and Skatov after fourteen. The risk: Marozsan has lost his last two matches and is only 15-13 as a favourite this season, and Skatov has the home crowd. We expect 6:4, 6:4; a win in three sets also counts.

Predicted score: 2:0
Our estimate: 72–75%

Form · Marozsan has lost his last two; Skatov lost in Shanghai qualifying two weeks ago

Fabian MarozsanLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Zheng M. 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(1)
Won v Kecmanovic M. 6-3, 6-4
Won v Damm M. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Duckworth J. 6(4)-7, 6-2, 6-4
Lost to Zheng M. 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
Won v Van Herck L. 6-4, 6-4
Won v Bolt A. 6-4, 6-2
Won v Daniel T. 6(2)-7, 7-5, 7-6(1)
Lost to Jacquet K. 7-6(12), 6-4
Lost to Svajda Z. 6-3, 7-6(2)

Timofey SkatovLast 10: 5-5

Lost to Onclin G. 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
Won v Bailly G. 6-4, 6-2
Lost to Dimitrov G. 7-6(5), 6-4
Lost to Erel Y. 7-6(2), 6-4
Won v Samrej K. 6-4, 7-6(4)
Won v Jones M. 6-4, 4-6, 6-4
Won v Rahmani K. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
Lost to Samrej K. 6-2, 7-6(6)
Won v Sakellaridis S. 6-3, 6-2
Lost to Tomic B. 7-5, 6-4

Stats comparison

Stat	Marozsan	Skatov
On hard courts	11-13	13-12
Last 10 matches	5-5	5-5
Service games held	80.8%	77.5%
Return games won	16.4%	24.8%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:4 2:0 in sets

Marozsan in two sets. Over their last ten tour-level matches with stats Marozsan held 80.8% of his service games, won 69.7% of his first-serve points and served 5.4 aces a match; Skatov held 77.5% with 3.9 aces. The Elo ratings give Marozsan 77.5%, a clear gap between a player ranked 64 and one ranked 201. On a fast indoor court Marozsan’s serve should carry him: we expect 6:4, 6:4. A home crowd could push Skatov to a third set.

Arguing against ourselves

01Marozsan is only 15-13 as a favourite this season and has lost his last two matches.
02Skatov plays at home and won both his Davis Cup singles in September.
03Skatov won 24.8% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, Marozsan 16.4%, though Skatov played most of them in qualifying and at Challengers.

Marozsan this autumnIn Hangzhou he beat Alex Bolt and Taro Daniel, then lost to Kyrian Jacquet 6:7(12), 4:6 in the quarter-finals. In Shanghai he lost his first match to Zachary Svajda 3:6, 6:7(2) on 8 October. In September he won his Davis Cup match against Louis Van Herck 6:4, 6:4.

Full match analysis