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Tennis · ATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · ATP 250 · First round · Indoor hard

Fabian MarozsanvsTimofey Skatov prediction · Almaty Open 2026

Date
20 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Atmane v Hijikata and Tsitsipas v Kovacevic, not before 11:30 local (07:30 UK)
Status
7:5 7:6
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Marozsan vs Skatov?

Fabian Marozsan plays the Kazakh wild card Timofey Skatov in the first round of the Almaty Open on Tuesday. Our bet: Marozsan to win, most likely in two sets.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
72–75%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Fabian Marozsan win
Odds at publish
1.28
Set by set
6:4, 6:4
Not before (UK)
07:30

Marozsan vs Skatov at a glance

MatchFabian Marozsan vs Timofey Skatov
TournamentATP · Almaty Open, Almaty · First round
SurfaceIndoor hard
Start20 OCT · 07:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCenter Court · Third match on court, after Atmane v Hijikata and Tsitsipas v Kovacevic
Our pickFabian Marozsan win · 1.28 · bet
Our estimate72–75%
Predicted score2:0 (6:4, 6:4)
Main reasonWe back Marozsan because the gap in level is bigger than his recent results suggest.
No. 02 · Form

Marozsan vs Skatov: recent form

Marozsan has lost his last two; Skatov lost in Shanghai qualifying two weeks ago

Fabian MarozsanLast 10: 5-5
  1. Lost to Zheng M. 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(1)
  2. Won v Kecmanovic M. 6-3, 6-4
  3. Won v Damm M. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
  4. Lost to Duckworth J. 6(4)-7, 6-2, 6-4
  5. Lost to Zheng M. 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
  6. Won v Van Herck L. 6-4, 6-4
  7. Won v Bolt A. 6-4, 6-2
  8. Won v Daniel T. 6(2)-7, 7-5, 7-6(1)
  9. Lost to Jacquet K. 7-6(12), 6-4
  10. Lost to Svajda Z. 6-3, 7-6(2)
Timofey SkatovLast 10: 5-5
  1. Lost to Onclin G. 2-6, 6-2, 6-3
  2. Won v Bailly G. 6-4, 6-2
  3. Lost to Dimitrov G. 7-6(5), 6-4
  4. Lost to Erel Y. 7-6(2), 6-4
  5. Won v Samrej K. 6-4, 7-6(4)
  6. Won v Jones M. 6-4, 4-6, 6-4
  7. Won v Rahmani K. 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
  8. Lost to Samrej K. 6-2, 7-6(6)
  9. Won v Sakellaridis S. 6-3, 6-2
  10. Lost to Tomic B. 7-5, 6-4

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Fabian Marozsan
Lost toSvajda Z.Shanghai · 08.10.266-3, 7-6(2)
Lost toJacquet K.Hangzhou · 27.09.267-6(12), 6-4
Won vDaniel T.Hangzhou · 25.09.266(2)-7, 7-5, 7-6(1)
Won vBolt A.Hangzhou · 24.09.266-4, 6-2
Won vVan Herck L.Davis Cup · 18.09.266-4, 6-4
Lost toZheng M.US Open · 02.09.266-4, 6-4, 6-2
Lost toDuckworth J.Winston Salem · 28.08.266(4)-7, 6-2, 6-4
Won vDamm M.Winston Salem · 27.08.262-6, 6-3, 6-3
Won vKecmanovic M.Winston Salem · 26.08.266-3, 6-4
Lost toZheng M.Cincinnati · 14.08.263-6, 6-1, 7-6(1)
Timofey Skatov
Lost toTomic B.Shanghai · 06.10.267-5, 6-4
Won vSakellaridis S.Shanghai · 05.10.266-3, 6-2
Lost toSamrej K.Asian Games · 30.09.266-2, 7-6(6)
Won vRahmani K.Asian Games · 29.09.262-6, 6-3, 6-3
Won vJones M.Davis Cup · 19.09.266-4, 4-6, 6-4
Won vSamrej K.Davis Cup · 18.09.266-4, 7-6(4)
Lost toErel Y.Istanbul challenger · 08.09.267-6(2), 6-4
Lost toDimitrov G.US Open · 26.08.267-6(5), 6-4
Won vBailly G.US Open · 25.08.266-4, 6-2
Lost toOnclin G.Cancun challenger · 20.08.262-6, 6-2, 6-3
Marozsan this autumnIn Hangzhou he beat Alex Bolt and Taro Daniel, then lost to Kyrian Jacquet 6:7(12), 4:6 in the quarter-finals. In Shanghai he lost his first match to Zachary Svajda 3:6, 6:7(2) on 8 October. In September he won his Davis Cup match against Louis Van Herck 6:4, 6:4.
No. 03 · Context

A top-70 player against the home wild card in the first round in Almaty

Skatov this autumn
He won both his Davis Cup singles for Kazakhstan, against Kasidit Samrej and Maximus Jones. At the Asian Games he lost to Samrej, and in Shanghai qualifying he beat Stefanos Sakellaridis before losing to Bernard Tomic 5:7, 4:6 on 6 October.
Season and surface
Marozsan is 22-24 this season, 11-13 on hard courts and 15-13 as a favourite. Skatov is 38-32, mostly at Challenger and ITF level, with 21 of those wins on clay; on hard courts he is 13-12.
Head to head
Marozsan leads 2-0, both in qualifying in 2023: 6:0, 2:6, 7:5 on clay in Rome and 6:3, 7:6(2) on a hard court in Vienna.
Rest
Marozsan has had twelve days off since Shanghai, Skatov fourteen.
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Marozsan held 80.8% of his service games over his last ten tour matches with stats, Skatov 77.5%

StatMarozsanSkatov
Season record22-2438-32 (better)
On hard courts11-1313-12 (better)
Last 10 matches5-55-5
As favourite15-1321-14 (better)
As underdog7-1113-16 (better)
StatMarozsanSkatov
Matches (W-L)10 (4-6)10 (4-6)
Aces per match5.4 (better)3.9
Double faults per match2.5 (better)2.7
1st serve in64.3% (better)61.7%
1st serve points won69.7% (better)68.3%
2nd serve points won56.4% (better)54.5%
Service games held80.8% (better)77.5%
Break points saved52.8%57.4% (better)
StatMarozsanSkatov
Return points won34.9%38.3% (better)
Return games won16.4%24.8% (better)
Break points converted35.0% (better)33.8%

Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour-level matches with stats: Fabian Marozsan 02.08.2026–07.10.2026, Timofey Skatov 27.07.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings

Marozsan leads 2-0

2023MarozsanVienna · Hard · Q16-3 7-6(2)
2023MarozsanRome Masters · Clay · Q16-0 2-6 7-5
No. 06 · Scenario & score

Marozsan vs Skatov predicted score

Marozsan in two sets

Over their last ten tour-level matches with stats Marozsan held 80.8% of his service games, won 69.7% of his first-serve points and served 5.4 aces a match; Skatov held 77.5% with 3.9 aces. The Elo ratings give Marozsan 77.5%, a clear gap between a player ranked 64 and one ranked 201. On a fast indoor court Marozsan’s serve should carry him: we expect 6:4, 6:4. A home crowd could push Skatov to a third set.

Predicted score
2:0
6:4, 6:4
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 4:6, 6:4
No. 07 · Why this pick wins

Our Marozsan vs Skatov pick: Fabian Marozsan win

Marozsan to win

Why we back it

We back Marozsan because the gap in level is bigger than his recent results suggest. Skatov, ranked 201, plays most of his tennis below tour level and is 13-12 on hard courts this year; Marozsan has beaten him twice. After twelve days of rest, with his serve on a fast indoor court, Marozsan should close this out in two sets.

Our probability72–75%
Our pickFabian Marozsan win
Odds1.28
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:4, 6:42:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets

What would change our mind Any news of a physical problem for Marozsan before the match.

No. 08 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Marozsan is only 15-13 as a favourite this season and has lost his last two matches.
  2. Skatov plays at home and won both his Davis Cup singles in September.
  3. Skatov won 24.8% of his return games over his last ten matches with stats, Marozsan 16.4%, though Skatov played most of them in qualifying and at Challengers.
No. 09 · Our call

Bet

Marozsan to win. He is 2-0 against Skatov, and the home wild card, ranked 201, is 13-12 on hard courts this season.

Bet
Fabian Marozsan win
Odds at publish
1.28 · 20 OCT 05:53 UK
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly