Single · No. 121 · 20 OCTLost
Porto vs PSV
- 01Porto vs PSVPorto win1.53 · Lost
- Total odds
- 1.53
- Stake
- 1.00 unit
- P&L
- -1.00 unit
- Our estimate
- 60–63%
Published 20 OCT 05:59
Odds: average of 35 popular bookmakers, 20 OCT 06:0718+Play responsibly
Odds: average of 35 popular bookmakers, 20 OCT 06:0718+Play responsibly
Why this betA single on FC Porto to beat PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League. Porto have won all eight Primeira Liga games this season and have lost only to Champions League opposition, Manchester City and Real Betis. PSV have lost two games in a row, including 1:2 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday, and their last three away games. Porto have had six days of rest, PSV three.
Leg 1 · Football · Europe · Champions League · 20 OCT · 20:00 UK
Porto vs PSV
Porto win1.53Lost
Why this pickPSV travel without Ricardo Pepi, Paul Wanner and Sam Lammers (Sports Mole, Voetbalprimeur), so Peter Bosz is short of forwards. Porto have scored 22 goals and conceded nine in their last ten games and get Jan Bednarek back from a European ban. Sports Mole picks 2:1 to Porto. The risk: the shot numbers are level, Porto have no points from two Champions League games, and PSV have scored in nine of their last ten.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate · Porto win
- 60–63%
Form · Porto 9 from 15. PSV 6 from 15.
Porto9 pts
- Lossvs Real Betis2:3
- Winvs Marítimo2:1
- Winvs Benfica3:1
- Winvs Casa Pia4:1
- Lossvs Manchester City0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
PSV6 pts
- Lossvs ADO Den Haag1:2
- Lossvs RB Leipzig0:1
- Winvs Heerenveen2:0
- Lossvs FC Twente2:3
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Lineups · Expected
- Porto
- OutChris SmallingNot registered for the Champions League
- OutGabriel MecNot registered for the Champions League
- OutDominik PrpićNot registered for the Champions League
- OutWilliam GomesAdductor injury, one source
- PSV
- OutRicardo PepiKnee injury
- OutPaul WannerFoot injury
- OutSam LammersInjured
- OutAlassane PléaMissing, one source
- DoubtGuus TilBlow to the head, travelled with the squad
What others predict · Consensus 2 of 3
Our positionSports Mole and the Kickoff.co.uk model have Porto, Squawka has PSV winning 2:1 in Porto. We share the Sports Mole score: Porto win, but PSV, who failed to score in only one of their last ten games, get a goal of their own.
Scenario & score
A rested Porto at home against a PSV side short of forwards. PSV played in The Hague on Saturday and have had three days of rest; Porto have had six since Seville. Without Pepi, Lammers and probably Pléa, Bosz is short of a centre-forward, while Porto have lost only to Champions League opponents all season. PSV still create plenty, with 17.7 shots a game over their last ten. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1 the case that beats us. The bet wins with any Porto win and loses with a draw or a PSV win.
Arguing against ourselves
- 01The shot numbers are level: over five games Porto land 46% of the shots on target in their matches, PSV 47%.
- 02Porto have no points from two Champions League games and conceded five goals in them.
- 03PSV failed to score in only one of their last ten games, so a 1:1 is a real outcome.
Key factPorto won 2:1 at Marítimo, 3:1 against Benfica and 4:1 at Casa Pia in the league, eight wins from eight this season (Sports Mole). Over their last ten games they are 8-0-2 with 22 goals scored and nine conceded, and both defeats came in the Champions League. PSV lost 1:2 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday, 0:1 at RB Leipzig and 2:3 at FC Twente, with home wins over Heerenveen (2:0) and Sparta Rotterdam (4:1) in between; Sports Mole notes they have lost their last three away games. Both teams scored in eight of PSV's last ten games and in five of Porto's. In the league-phase table (UEFA) Porto are 30th with no points and PSV 26th with one.
Full match analysis