Feyenoord's unbeaten leaders took their row to the dressing room. PSV are next
Our take The row is noise. Eight goals in three games is not
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Porto
PortovsPSV FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven · prediction
Score
0:1
Date
20 OCT
City
Porto
Status
Full time
POR0:1PSVFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Porto vs PSV?
Our FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction is a Porto win, most likely 2:1, at the Estádio do Dragão on Tuesday (20:00 in Porto and the UK). Francesco Farioli's Porto have won all eight of their Primeira Liga games this season, yet have no points after two Champions League games: 0:2 at home to Manchester City and 2:3 at Real Betis. Peter Bosz's PSV have lost their last two games, 0:1 at RB Leipzig and 1:2 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday, and travel without Ricardo Pepi, Paul Wanner and Sam Lammers. Porto to win is our single for 1 unit.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 60–63%
- Market
- Porto win
- Price now
- 1.53
Porto vs PSV at a glance
| Match | FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 20 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Porto |
| Venue | Estádio do Dragão, Porto |
| Our pick | Porto win · 1.53 · bet |
| Our estimate | 60–63% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | Porto have won every league game this season and play at home against a PSV side that has lost two in a row and its last three away games. |
No. 04 · Form
Porto vs PSV: recent form
Porto 9 from 15. PSV 6 from 15.
Porto9 pts
- Lossvs Real Betis2:3
- Winvs Marítimo2:1
- Winvs Benfica3:1
- Winvs Casa Pia4:1
- Lossvs Manchester City0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
PSV6 pts
- Lossvs ADO Den Haag1:2
- Lossvs RB Leipzig0:1
- Winvs Heerenveen2:0
- Lossvs FC Twente2:3
- Winvs Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factPorto won 2:1 at Marítimo, 3:1 against Benfica and 4:1 at Casa Pia in the league, eight wins from eight this season (Sports Mole). Over their last ten games they are 8-0-2 with 22 goals scored and nine conceded, and both defeats came in the Champions League. PSV lost 1:2 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday, 0:1 at RB Leipzig and 2:3 at FC Twente, with home wins over Heerenveen (2:0) and Sparta Rotterdam (4:1) in between; Sports Mole notes they have lost their last three away games. Both teams scored in eight of PSV's last ten games and in five of Porto's. In the league-phase table (UEFA) Porto are 30th with no points and PSV 26th with one.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Porto vs PSV team news
PSV without Pepi, Wanner and Lammers; Porto get Bednarek back.
Porto
- OutChris SmallingNot registered for the Champions League
- OutGabriel MecNot registered for the Champions League
- OutDominik PrpićNot registered for the Champions League
- OutWilliam GomesAdductor injury, one source
PSV
- OutRicardo PepiKnee injury
- OutPaul WannerFoot injury
- OutSam LammersInjured
- OutAlassane PléaMissing, one source
- DoubtGuus TilBlow to the head, travelled with the squad
TacticsRicardo Pepi (knee), Paul Wanner (foot) and Sam Lammers are out for PSV (Sports Mole, Voetbalprimeur), and Voetbalprimeur also lists Alassane Pléa as missing. Guus Til took a blow to the head at ADO but travelled and may play, while Ruben van Bommel stayed at home before Sunday's game with Feyenoord (Voetbalprimeur, citing De Telegraaf). Mijnans was sent off in The Hague, but Sports Mole says the ban applies in the Eredivisie only. For Porto, Chris Smalling, Gabriel Mec and Dominik Prpić are not registered for the Champions League (Sports Mole, A Bola), and A Bola says William Gomes is still being treated for an adductor injury. Jan Bednarek is back after a two-match European ban. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
In the news
Bednarek applauds Porto's boos. Eight from eight in Portugal, zero in Europe
Our take Porto lose Europe in both boxes, not the stands
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Porto vs PSV?
Two of three sources have Porto; one picks PSV.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Porto 2:1 PSV | Same side |
| Kickoff.co.uk (model) | Porto about 50%; expected goals 1.8 : 1.3 | Same side |
| Squawka | 1:2 to PSV | Other side |
Our positionSports Mole and the Kickoff.co.uk model have Porto, Squawka has PSV winning 2:1 in Porto. We share the Sports Mole score: Porto win, but PSV, who failed to score in only one of their last ten games, get a goal of their own.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Porto vs PSV predicted score
A rested Porto at home against a PSV side short of forwards.
PSV played in The Hague on Saturday and have had three days of rest; Porto have had six since Seville. Without Pepi, Lammers and probably Pléa, Bosz is short of a centre-forward, while Porto have lost only to Champions League opponents all season. PSV still create plenty, with 17.7 shots a game over their last ten. 2:1 is our main score and 1:1 the case that beats us. The bet wins with any Porto win and loses with a draw or a PSV win.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
POR
PSV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Porto vs PSV pick: Porto win
Porto win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Porto have won every league game this season and play at home against a PSV side that has lost two in a row and its last three away games. PSV are without three forwards, Pepi, Wanner and Lammers, and had three days to recover from Saturday, Porto six. The shot numbers are close, which is why the stake is 1 unit. Our score is 2:1.
Our probability60–63%
Our pickPorto win
Odds1.53
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind A PSV team sheet with Pepi or Wanner back, or a Porto price above 1.65 before kick-off: then we would drop the pick.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Porto win | 1.53 | 65.4% |
| Draw | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| PSV win | 5.35 | 18.7% |
| Porto or draw | 1.15 | 87% |
| PSV or draw | 2.44 | 41% |
| Both teams to score | 1.58 | 63.3% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.32 | 43.1% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 06:07 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why PSV could take a point.
- The shot numbers are level: over five games Porto land 46% of the shots on target in their matches, PSV 47%.
- Porto have no points from two Champions League games and conceded five goals in them.
- PSV failed to score in only one of their last ten games, so a 1:1 is a real outcome.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Porto win at 1.53, a single for 1 unit. Porto must win; a draw loses the bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Porto win at 1.53
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Bet at 1.53
- Happened
- 0:1PSV win
Lost
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.