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Double · No. 118 · 20 OCTLost

Shnaider vs Putintseva + Badosa vs Ruzic

  1. 01Diana Shnaider vs Yulia PutintsevaDiana Shnaider win1.30 · Won
  2. 02Paula Badosa vs Antonia RuzicPaula Badosa win1.32 · Lost
Total odds
1.72
Stake
1.00 unit
P&L
-1.00 unit
Our estimate
50–54%
Published 19 OCT 18:3118+Play responsibly
Why this betA tennis double on two first-round favourites on Tuesday morning in Asia: Diana Shnaider to beat Yulia Putintseva in Ningbo and Paula Badosa to beat Antonia Ruzic in Osaka. Shnaider beat Putintseva 6:2, 6:2 in Wuhan six days ago; Ruzic is 13-17 on hard courts this season. Both legs have every model and preview we found on their side, and neither player we back comes in from a retirement, a title or a long break.
Leg 1 · Tennis · WTA · Ningbo Open, Ningbo · 20 OCT · 06:00 UK

Diana Shnaider vs Yulia Putintseva

Diana Shnaider win1.30Won
Why this pickShnaider beat Putintseva 6:2, 6:2 in the second round in Wuhan on 14 October and then beat Karolina Muchova to reach the quarter-finals. She holds 71.7% of her service games this season against Putintseva’s 62.4%, and she is 29-9 as a favourite in 2026. Putintseva comes through two rounds of qualifying in Ningbo. Dimers gives Shnaider 72%. The risk: Putintseva has won eight of her last ten matches. We expect 6:3, 6:3; a win in three sets also counts.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
72–74%

Form · Shnaider reached the Wuhan quarter-finals last week; Putintseva came through qualifying in Ningbo

Diana ShnaiderLast 10: 6-4
  1. Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 6-4
  2. Won v Snigur D. 6-0, 6-4
  3. Won v Pliskova K. 6-1, 7-6(4)
  4. Lost to Townsend T. 6-2, 6(3)-7, 6-3
  5. Won v Tjen J. 6-0, 6-4
  6. Lost to Alexandrova E. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
  7. Won v Boulter K. 6-3, 6-1
  8. Won v Putintseva Y. 6-2, 6-2
  9. Won v Muchova K. 7-5, 6-3
  10. Lost to Ostapenko J. 7-6(6), 6-1
Yulia PutintsevaLast 10: 8-2
  1. Won v Suhail U. 6-1, 6-0
  2. Won v Yang Y. 6-3, 6-1
  3. Won v Sawangkaew M. 6-3, 6-0
  4. Lost to Zhang S. 6-4, 6-2
  5. Won v Ruse E. 7-5, 2-1 ret.
  6. Won v Krueger A. 6-1, 6-3
  7. Won v Sonmez Z. 6(1)-7, 6-3, 7-5
  8. Lost to Shnaider D. 6-2, 6-2
  9. Won v Qu Y. 6-1, 7-6(0)
  10. Won v Parks A. 6-2, 6-2

Stats comparison

StatShnaiderPutintseva
On hard courts21-1320-13
Last 10 matches6-48-2
Service games held71.7%62.4%
Return games won36.9%35.8%

Our scenario

6:3, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Shnaider in two sets. Shnaider is the stronger server: 71.7% of service games held and 64.2% of first-serve points won, against 62.4% and 59.6% for Putintseva. On return they are level (36.9% and 35.8% of return games won), so the difference is Shnaider holding more often. We expect 6:3, 6:3, as in Wuhan. A 2:1 Shnaider win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Putintseva has match rhythm on these courts: two qualifying wins in Ningbo and eight wins in her last ten matches.
  2. 02Shnaider lost three of her last ten matches as the favourite, to Ekaterina Alexandrova, Jelena Ostapenko and Taylor Townsend.
  3. 03She played four days in a row in Wuhan last week.
Shnaider in WuhanShe beat Katie Boulter 6:3, 6:1, Yulia Putintseva 6:2, 6:2 and Karolina Muchova 7:5, 6:3, then lost to Jelena Ostapenko 7:6(6), 6:1 in the quarter-finals on 16 October.
Full match analysis
Leg 2 · Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · 20 OCT · 03:30 UK

Paula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic

Paula Badosa win1.32Lost
Why this pickBadosa wins 67.1% of her first-serve points and 36.3% of her return games this season, Ruzic 58.1% and 31.8%. Ruzic is 13-17 on hard courts in 2026 and lost in Rovereto, Italy, on 15 October before flying to Osaka. Badosa beat her 6:3, 7:6(2) in Beijing last year. Dimers gives Badosa 72% and Tennis Tonic picks her in two sets. The risk is her second serve: 6.9 double faults a match. We expect 6:4, 6:3.
Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
70–72%

Form · Badosa reached a semi-final in São Paulo last month; Ruzic is 4-6 in her last ten matches

Paula BadosaLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Udvardy P. 6-4, 6-1
  2. Lost to Sherif M. 7-6(4), 6(2)-7, 6-4
  3. Won v Kasatkina D. 6-1, 6-4
  4. Lost to Gauff C. 6-4, 7-6(5)
  5. Won v Mikulskyte J. 6-3, 6-2
  6. Won v Ortenzi J. 4-6, 6-2, 6-2
  7. Won v Stoiana M. 6-4, 6-2
  8. Lost to Podoroska N. 6-3, 6-4
  9. Won v Kasatkina D. 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4
  10. Lost to Ostapenko J. 7-6(5), 7-5
Antonia RuzicLast 10: 4-6
  1. Lost to Frech M. 6-2, 7-5
  2. Lost to Bartunkova N. 6-4, 6-3
  3. Lost to Li A. 7-5, 6-1
  4. Won v Valdmannova V. 6-4, 6-3
  5. Won v Riera J. 6-3, 6-4
  6. Won v Kostovic T. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
  7. Lost to Jeanjean L. 4-6, 6-1, 6-3
  8. Lost to Dudeney A. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
  9. Won v Siskova A. 7-5, 6-3
  10. Lost to Andreescu B. 7-5, 3-6, 7-5

Stats comparison

StatBadosaRuzic
On hard courts12-1113-17
Last 10 matches6-44-6
Service games held64.0%60.2%
Return games won36.3%31.8%

Our scenario

6:4, 6:3 2:0 in sets

Badosa in two sets. Badosa’s first serve wins 67.1% of points and she hits 3.9 aces a match; Ruzic holds only 60.2% of her service games. We expect Badosa to break more often than she is broken and win 6:4, 6:3. The risk is her own second serve: 6.9 double faults a match. A 2:1 Badosa win still wins the bet.

Arguing against ourselves

  1. 01Badosa’s serve is erratic: 56.3% of first serves in and 6.9 double faults a match this season.
  2. 02She lost three of her last ten matches as the favourite, and her last match was 17 days ago.
  3. 03The Tennis Abstract Elo rating makes her a slightly smaller favourite than the market (67% against 71%).
Badosa this autumnShe reached the semi-finals in São Paulo in September, beating Mary Stoiana 6:4, 6:2 on the way. In Beijing she beat Daria Kasatkina in three sets and lost to Jelena Ostapenko 7:6(5), 7:5 on 3 October.
Full match analysis