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Tennis · WTA · Japan Open, Osaka · WTA 250 · First round · Hard

Paula BadosavsAntonia Ruzic prediction · Japan Open 2026

Date
20 OCT
Court
Court 1
Order of play
Second match on court, after Liu v Linette, not before 11:30 local (03:30 UK)
Status
6:3 4:6 3:6
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win Badosa vs Ruzic?

Paula Badosa plays Antonia Ruzic in the first round of the Japan Open in Osaka on Tuesday. We back Badosa to win the match, most likely 6:4, 6:3.

Predicted score
2:0
Our estimate
70–72%
Why we back it18+Play responsibly
Our pick
Paula Badosa win
Our bet
Double No. 118 · total odds 1.72
Leg odds
1.32
Set by set
6:4, 6:3
Not before (UK)
03:30

Badosa vs Ruzic at a glance

MatchPaula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic
TournamentWTA · Japan Open, Osaka · First round
SurfaceHard
Start20 OCT · 03:30 UK · 11:30 local
CourtCourt 1 · Second match on court, after Liu v Linette
Our pickPaula Badosa win · 1.32 · bet
Our estimate70–72%
Predicted score2:0 (6:4, 6:3)
Main reasonPaula Badosa is the stronger player on both sides of the ball: she wins 67.1% of her first-serve points and 36.3% of her return games this season, against 58.1% and 31.8% for Antonia Ruzic.
No. 02 · Form

Badosa vs Ruzic: recent form

Badosa reached a semi-final in São Paulo last month; Ruzic is 4-6 in her last ten matches

Paula BadosaLast 10: 6-4
  1. Won v Udvardy P. 6-4, 6-1
  2. Lost to Sherif M. 7-6(4), 6(2)-7, 6-4
  3. Won v Kasatkina D. 6-1, 6-4
  4. Lost to Gauff C. 6-4, 7-6(5)
  5. Won v Mikulskyte J. 6-3, 6-2
  6. Won v Ortenzi J. 4-6, 6-2, 6-2
  7. Won v Stoiana M. 6-4, 6-2
  8. Lost to Podoroska N. 6-3, 6-4
  9. Won v Kasatkina D. 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4
  10. Lost to Ostapenko J. 7-6(5), 7-5
Antonia RuzicLast 10: 4-6
  1. Lost to Frech M. 6-2, 7-5
  2. Lost to Bartunkova N. 6-4, 6-3
  3. Lost to Li A. 7-5, 6-1
  4. Won v Valdmannova V. 6-4, 6-3
  5. Won v Riera J. 6-3, 6-4
  6. Won v Kostovic T. 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
  7. Lost to Jeanjean L. 4-6, 6-1, 6-3
  8. Lost to Dudeney A. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
  9. Won v Siskova A. 7-5, 6-3
  10. Lost to Andreescu B. 7-5, 3-6, 7-5

Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.

Show the matches
Paula Badosa
Lost toOstapenko J.Beijing · 03.10.267-6(5), 7-5
Won vKasatkina D.Beijing · 01.10.264-6, 7-6(7), 6-4
Lost toPodoroska N.Sao Paulo WTA · 19.09.266-3, 6-4
Won vStoiana M.Sao Paulo WTA · 18.09.266-4, 6-2
Won vOrtenzi J.Sao Paulo WTA · 17.09.264-6, 6-2, 6-2
Won vMikulskyte J.Sao Paulo WTA · 17.09.266-3, 6-2
Lost toGauff C.US Open · 04.09.266-4, 7-6(5)
Won vKasatkina D.US Open · 02.09.266-1, 6-4
Lost toSherif M.Hamburg WTA · 24.07.267-6(4), 6(2)-7, 6-4
Won vUdvardy P.Hamburg WTA · 23.07.266-4, 6-1
Antonia Ruzic
Lost toAndreescu B.Rovereto · 15.10.267-5, 3-6, 7-5
Won vSiskova A.Rovereto · 13.10.267-5, 6-3
Lost toDudeney A.Samsun · 06.10.263-6, 6-3, 6-4
Lost toJeanjean L.Adana · 03.10.264-6, 6-1, 6-3
Won vKostovic T.Adana · 02.10.264-6, 6-4, 6-2
Won vRiera J.Adana · 30.09.266-3, 6-4
Won vValdmannova V.Adana · 28.09.266-4, 6-3
Lost toLi A.US Open · 31.08.267-5, 6-1
Lost toBartunkova N.Monterrey · 24.08.266-4, 6-3
Lost toFrech M.Cincinnati WTA · 13.08.266-2, 7-5
Badosa this autumnShe reached the semi-finals in São Paulo in September, beating Mary Stoiana 6:4, 6:2 on the way. In Beijing she beat Daria Kasatkina in three sets and lost to Jelena Ostapenko 7:6(5), 7:5 on 3 October.
No. 03 · Context

A Spanish former world No. 2 against a Croatian ranked 91 in the first round in Osaka

Ruzic this autumn
She reached a semi-final in Adana, then lost in the first round in Samsun as the favourite and to Bianca Andreescu in Rovereto on 15 October. At the US Open she lost to Ann Li 7:5, 6:1.
Season and surface
Badosa is 27-20 this season, 12-11 on hard courts and 25-13 as a favourite. Ruzic is 23-28 and 13-17 on hard courts.
Head to head
Badosa won their only meeting, in Beijing in 2025 on a hard court, 6:3, 7:6(2).
No. 04 · Stats comparison

Badosa wins 36.3% of her return games this season, Ruzic 31.8%

StatBadosaRuzic
Season record27-20 (better)23-28
On hard courts12-11 (better)13-17
Last 10 matches6-4 (better)4-6
As favourite25-1317-7 (better)
As underdog2-76-19 (better)
StatBadosaRuzic
Matches3832
Aces per match3.9 (better)1.3
Double faults per match6.93.4 (better)
1st serve in56.3%66.2% (better)
1st serve points won67.1% (better)58.1%
2nd serve points won41.6%44.7% (better)
Service games held64.0% (better)60.2%
Break points saved53.0%55.7% (better)
StatBadosaRuzic
Return points won44.5% (better)42.0%
Return games won36.3% (better)31.8%
Break points converted40.2%44.4% (better)

Form rows: 2026 season to 19 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.

No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings

Badosa leads 1-0

2025BadosaBeijing · Hard · R646-3 7-6(2)
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Badosa vs Ruzic?

SourceTheir viewVersus us
DimersBadosa, 72%Same side
Tennis TonicBadosa in two setsSame side
Our position2 of 2 back Badosa. We are on Badosa’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Badosa vs Ruzic predicted score

Badosa in two sets

Badosa’s first serve wins 67.1% of points and she hits 3.9 aces a match; Ruzic holds only 60.2% of her service games. We expect Badosa to break more often than she is broken and win 6:4, 6:3. The risk is her own second serve: 6.9 double faults a match. A 2:1 Badosa win still wins the bet.

Predicted score
2:0
6:4, 6:3
Alternative
2:1
6:4, 4:6, 6:3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Badosa vs Ruzic pick: Paula Badosa win

Badosa to win the match

Why we back it

Paula Badosa is the stronger player on both sides of the ball: she wins 67.1% of her first-serve points and 36.3% of her return games this season, against 58.1% and 31.8% for Antonia Ruzic. Ruzic is 13-17 on hard courts in 2026 and flew to Osaka from Rovereto in Italy, where she lost on 15 October. Badosa beat her 6:3, 7:6(2) in Beijing last year, and both previews we found back her. We expect 6:4, 6:3; a win in three sets also wins the bet.

Our probability70–72%
Our pickPaula Badosa win
Leg odds1.32
Main scenario2:0
Our scenario
6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
Alternative
6:4, 4:6, 6:32:1 in sets

What would change our mind Any news about Badosa’s back or fitness before the match, or her price moving above 1.40.

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

  1. Badosa’s serve is erratic: 56.3% of first serves in and 6.9 double faults a match this season.
  2. She lost three of her last ten matches as the favourite, and her last match was 17 days ago.
  3. The Tennis Abstract Elo rating makes her a slightly smaller favourite than the market (67% against 71%).
No. 10 · Our call

Double

Paula Badosa win is one leg of our double No. 118. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.72, 1.00 unit.

Leg 1
Diana Shnaider win @ 1.30
Leg 2 · this match
Paula Badosa win @ 1.32
Total odds
1.72 · 1.00 unit
Odds at publish
19 OCT 18:12 UK
Open double No. 118 →
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly